“The end of history” thundered the American intellectual Francis Fukuyama after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent end of the cold war. What Fukuyama concluded was that the evolutionary process of mankind governing itself had reached its conclusion with the advent of liberal democracy and history will stop its ever continuous process of evolving henceforth.
Fukuyama and many of his intellectual counterparts had the benefit of watching the “victory” of the West and its model of liberal, capitalist democracy in the background and then declaring the eventual superiority of that system of governance as the final phase of human evolution but what they did not consider was the glorious uncertainty of History.
But History can sometimes be much stranger than fiction and certainly stranger than many western intellectual thinkers could have considered. Indeed many of his considerations were derived out of the absolute superiority of Western countries both economically and politically. The fact that the United States maintained an absolute supremacy in terms of military power in the world obviously helped the United States to get others to listen to its version of the story and ignore the rest. This was the background which helped Fukuyama to come up and declare his idea of “end of history” and many serious intellectuals and thinkers believed in his epoch-shattering ideas.
Now two decades hence the World looks a lot different that Fukuyama had probably thought about. Indeed the Western countries still dominate the global scenario as in the 1990-s but their overwhelming supremacy has been somewhat halted by the emergence of rival powers and rival ideas.
The western model of liberal democracy faces some considerable challenges in the coming decades. One of them is in terms economic growth. The west has long dominated the World in terms of economic growth and prosperity but in the last decade of 20-th century and in the present 21-st century we have seen the meteoric rise of potential rivals like China in particular. The Chinese successes in terms of commercial and economic growth put cold waters on the Western claim of overwhelming superiority in the world of businesses and commerce. As China has continued to grow strongly some of the established major Western economies like Spain, Ireland, France, UK and even the USA has not been able to match their pre-1980 growth rates let aside double-digit economic growth rates of China. Indeed all these major Western economies have slowed down considerably over the last decade or so and they have not shown any clear signs of gearing up in the new millennium to match that of the Chinese. The success of the Chinese have come largely without that nation bringing in all the democratic and pollitical reforms as prescribed by the Western pundits and specialists and the success of the Chinese economic model contradicts the Fukuyama line of thinking that western - model of liberal , democratic model is the only model able to bring in economic prosperity.
The second significant challenge that the Western democracies increasingly face is the challenge regarding economic inequality in their own societies. One of the major positive aspects of the Western system has been its ability to provide a considerable amount of income to its unemployed and matured age populations. Indeed this has been one quality of the Western model which has been loudly praised by all the major intellectuals (of both western and non-western backgrounds). But as economic growth has stagnated in the Western societies so has been the prospect of governments doling out large sums of money to their underprivileged and unemployed populations. Indeed after the last recession in 2008 many of the countries in Europe have been considering cutting down benefits to their unemployed and underprivileged in a considerable way. Large popular demonstrations have been observed in countries such as Greece and Portugal against any possible efforts by their governments to cut down social benefits. Protests can also be seen in the US against plans by individual states like Wisconsin and Michigan against proposed cuts to these benefits for the underprivileged and unemployed. The wedge between the governing establishments and their people is getting bigger as time slowly passes by. Indeed the very stability of the Western societies could be a major issue in the coming decades as the gap in wealth between the “have”-s and the “have-not”-s continue to grow in the Western societies. There is a perceivable sense among the population as well as the general intelligentsia in the Western world that their elected representatives do not keep in mind the interests of those who elected them in the first place. The protests and demonstrations are only the signals of the same attitude.
Another major challenge the West will continue to face will be the future of the western concept of the nation state. The Western model of democratic governance was based upon the foundation of single language-speaking homogeneous nation-states. Thanks to the global outreach of the Western multinational corporations many people from the non-Western speaking countries had the opportunity to go to the Western countries, work in those affluent places and then report back home about the success the Western societies were enjoying. This particular method brought both the Western and the non-Western worlds together and allowed both to enrich each other. But the post-2008 recession West has struggled to get rid of its national prejudices and biases. In an increasingly globally connected world where the national boundaries are becoming increasingly irrelevant each day; we can observe the existing national prejudices also becoming more widespread in the West. The recent backlash against Chinese and Indian Workers in the US, the banning of head scarves in France, the derogatory comments on Muslims by the German ministers, the popularity of extreme-nationalists in many parts of continental Europe, the discriminatory bills passed by the parliament of Israel or for that matter the incidents of beatings of Indian students in Australia all point to the same direction. The Western world is not comfortable about the rise of the “Eastern” powers like China and India and in this environment the “alien” in the society i.e. those who are not from the Western-ethnicity gets to be blamed by the majority of the Western societies for their miseries. The more the Westerners demand assimilation of their non-Western minorities to the western mainstream; the less will be the popularity of the Western ideas among the non-Westerner populations.
The West needs to reconcile itself with the current world scenario where it needs to take into consideration the views of others like China. Without reconciling to that as well as not finding constructive answers to the challenges I have mentioned, will not help the West to adopt itself to the new realities of the 21-st century World.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Friday, March 18, 2011
What do they know about cricket, those who only cricket know
“Team aissi hi nehin jitti hain , jitana parta hain” this is a very well-known and oft-repeated slogan currently being used for marketing and promotional ways during the current world cup cricket. One thing that struck my mind after watching to this particular slogan is what can we do to make sure that our glorious nation of more than 1 billion wins? And for that matter why do we need to do anything in this regard apart from watching (and cheering loudly as well as jeering the opposition) our boys play? After all when we won the world cup in 1983 did the Kapil’s devils needed our help in such a way like in one of our very famous television ad-s couple of very famous Bollywood actors saying that they will not eat anything during the matches ? I do not think so.
Now let us think from another perspective. Why do most of us the middle-class Indians need to cheer madly for our cricket team? After all most of our celebrated cricketers will probably end up being crorepatis even they do not do anything in the competition thanks to a recent phenomenon called the “Indian Premier League”. And if they really play well and go on to win the cup they will probably end up being khaarabpatis anyways. So what is in it for us middle class Indians? Mr. Indian cricket fan if you argue that we should watch the game for only the love of game , I will counter you by saying that very few of our die-hard cricket fans watch the games for the love of the game ; they simply want their “Team India” to win. And why do we otherwise irrelevant people should care about these would-be “crorepatis/ khaarabpatis” (depending upon their performance of losing/winning the world cup)? My own understanding is that the present life of an average middle-class Indian is pretty dull and doubly boring. We face a lot of challenges throughout each day of our life for example the skyrocketing of daily food prices, the ratio of income taxes, the attitudes of traffic polices on the road, the rage of our angry and ever demanding managers at work, the fury and attitudes of our girlfriends and wives at home/outside, the constant concern of our parents and relatives. Among all these we just want our “Team India” to win not because we realize how great a batsman “Sachin Pazi” is but for our own selves. If Sachin Pazi scores a century or if Bhajji gets a hat-trick or if Mahi wins the cup then at least for some very few moments we can forget who we in reality are i.e. a completely irrelevant class of people in the nation and we for that very moment feel that it is such irrelevant people like us who are at the top of the world, not those famed cricketers.
On a different note, I for one will not be too disappointed if our team loses say in the quarter finals. After all in my view (and probably some of my readers will agree) that this current team of ours is not a complete all-round team but a team which is dependent upon certain great individuals starting from Sachin and Viru pazi. I for one will be happy if a team say as the proteas go on to win the cup after all they are a preity all-round and formidable side which includes probably the best first bowler going around. And of all they are the team who deserves the helping hands of lady luck most since they are the one to have been at the receiving end of the story for so long. Anyone remember 1992 and 1999 world cup semi finals? The next team I have my favorite list is …. Woops do not shout at me o glorious Indian cricket fan … Pakistan. After all in the last decade that country has seen all sorts of problems and ironically everything started to going badly for that country from their lose in the 1999 cup final. What could be better for the people of that grieving and beleaguered country than an India-Pakistan clash at the quarter finals in say Bangalore and those hated Pakistanis defeating us in the last over with that hated and reviled Rawalpindi express uprooting the middle stump of Sachin Pazi? Now I know of my readers will be nodding their heads in anger and disbelief. I know it will be a great anti-climax (and tragic also since probably some innocent boys and girls would probably end up hanging themselves from their ceiling fans after the match) but then sometimes one also needs anti-climaxes in our lives. That is why a very famous cricket writer from West Indies wrote “What do they know about cricket, those who only cricket know”
Now let us think from another perspective. Why do most of us the middle-class Indians need to cheer madly for our cricket team? After all most of our celebrated cricketers will probably end up being crorepatis even they do not do anything in the competition thanks to a recent phenomenon called the “Indian Premier League”. And if they really play well and go on to win the cup they will probably end up being khaarabpatis anyways. So what is in it for us middle class Indians? Mr. Indian cricket fan if you argue that we should watch the game for only the love of game , I will counter you by saying that very few of our die-hard cricket fans watch the games for the love of the game ; they simply want their “Team India” to win. And why do we otherwise irrelevant people should care about these would-be “crorepatis/ khaarabpatis” (depending upon their performance of losing/winning the world cup)? My own understanding is that the present life of an average middle-class Indian is pretty dull and doubly boring. We face a lot of challenges throughout each day of our life for example the skyrocketing of daily food prices, the ratio of income taxes, the attitudes of traffic polices on the road, the rage of our angry and ever demanding managers at work, the fury and attitudes of our girlfriends and wives at home/outside, the constant concern of our parents and relatives. Among all these we just want our “Team India” to win not because we realize how great a batsman “Sachin Pazi” is but for our own selves. If Sachin Pazi scores a century or if Bhajji gets a hat-trick or if Mahi wins the cup then at least for some very few moments we can forget who we in reality are i.e. a completely irrelevant class of people in the nation and we for that very moment feel that it is such irrelevant people like us who are at the top of the world, not those famed cricketers.
On a different note, I for one will not be too disappointed if our team loses say in the quarter finals. After all in my view (and probably some of my readers will agree) that this current team of ours is not a complete all-round team but a team which is dependent upon certain great individuals starting from Sachin and Viru pazi. I for one will be happy if a team say as the proteas go on to win the cup after all they are a preity all-round and formidable side which includes probably the best first bowler going around. And of all they are the team who deserves the helping hands of lady luck most since they are the one to have been at the receiving end of the story for so long. Anyone remember 1992 and 1999 world cup semi finals? The next team I have my favorite list is …. Woops do not shout at me o glorious Indian cricket fan … Pakistan. After all in the last decade that country has seen all sorts of problems and ironically everything started to going badly for that country from their lose in the 1999 cup final. What could be better for the people of that grieving and beleaguered country than an India-Pakistan clash at the quarter finals in say Bangalore and those hated Pakistanis defeating us in the last over with that hated and reviled Rawalpindi express uprooting the middle stump of Sachin Pazi? Now I know of my readers will be nodding their heads in anger and disbelief. I know it will be a great anti-climax (and tragic also since probably some innocent boys and girls would probably end up hanging themselves from their ceiling fans after the match) but then sometimes one also needs anti-climaxes in our lives. That is why a very famous cricket writer from West Indies wrote “What do they know about cricket, those who only cricket know”
Friday, March 4, 2011
What is so big deal about right to Veto in UN
In recent times the primary obsession for any high rank shenanigan in Indian foreign policy establishment is thus: India becoming a permanent member of the United Nations Security council. To the foreign policy establishment of India, a country which had hardly played any prominent role in International affairs since the heydays of our first prime minister, the promise given by Mr. Obama during his last visit to India of helping and mentoring India to become a permanent member of Security Council was just like Manna from Heaven.
Now let us analyze what it means to become a permanent member of the Security Council and decide ourselves whether it is worth a goal as such.
The major reasons that the Indian establishment offers to its citizens for their obsession with the permanent membership of the Security Council are the following:
1. United Nations Security council body is the most important body in terms of international politics in modern world.
2. Security Council membership is prestigious that it offers great power and influence in the world of International affairs.
3. Being a permanent member of the Security Council is a recognization of India’s achievements as a nation.
To counter these arguments let me state these counter arguments.
1. United nations Security Council is not the most important policy making body in the world. It was created by the winners in the Second World War to ensure the post-world war II era world in a way which helps those powers achieve their geo-political interests. The UN Security Council never played its rightful role in ending the major conflicts of the 20-th century like the Korean war, the Vietnam war (both wars there involving first France and then the United States) , the conflicts at Congo , the Bangladesh war , the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan , the Israeli invasion of Lebanon etc. These conflicts started because one or more permanent members of the security council wanted them for their own geo-political interest and those conflicts were ended only when those interests were either fulfilled or the costs involved in running those conflicts were just too large for the permanent member of the security council.(like the soviet war in Afghanistan or the French colonial wars in Indo-China).
2. Security Council membership is very prestigious but that does not mean it will give India the amount of leverage and influence in geo-politics that we believe in. To have influence in International affairs you need to have that amount of clout where others come to you for help and advice. To help underscore the point let us look at the example of Turkey. Turkey used to have very little friends in the West Asian or North African region. It had historically hostile relationships with Greece, Armenia, Syria, Iran etc. It almost went to war with Syria during the early 1990-s. There was a proverb in Turkey in those days saying that “A Turk has only one friend and he is another Turk” But from 2002- onwards Turkey embarked upon a policy called “zero problems with neighbors” and gradually it has started to bear its fruits. Turkey now enjoys very cordial business and political relations with Syria and Iran. Turkish companies dominate in the reconstruction efforts in post-war Iraq. Turkey is building a visa free regime with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Talks are on to bring in Iran and Russia also in the same zone. Turkish relations with Armenia and Greece also have improved quite a lot compared to the past. Even during the current political upheaval and revolutionary movements in West Asia and North Africa, influential leaders of the revolution like the leader of ennahda movement in Tunisia Racchid Ghanoucchi or the famous Muslim intellectual Tariq Ramadan highlights Turkey as the model to follow. The example of Turkey emphasizes the point that one need to build up bridges of cooperation so that your neighbors are comfortable that your interests do not hurt theirs and they are eager to collaborate.
3. The permanent members of the Security Council do not derive their legitimacies from their veto power. Whatever legitimacy they have is because of their political, economic, cultural or military achievements either in the past or in the present. United States derives her recognition from the fact that she is the overwhelming superior nation in terms of military and strategic perspectives. China derives its legitimacy from its recent unprecedented economic growth. United Kingdom and France derives their legitimacies from their colonial and cultural legacies. The Russian federation derives her legitimacy from her vast reserves of natural resources and from her huge stockpile of nuclear weapons. The overall picture is all the permanent members of the United Nations security council are recognized as powerful because of their past and present achievements in different fields but not because their permanent membership in the United Nations security council.
In the end , one has to mention that real influence in World Affairs does not come from your permanent membership at some elite club but it comes when other nations come to you believing that you have capabilities to help them solve their problems or we reach out to the world to engage it with our own initiatives. If we look at the past efforts of Indian foreign policy establishment in this regard , a lot remains to be expected on that front. Without this our hopes of gaining real influence in World Affairs will remain as it has been since the death of our first prime minister i.e. a pipedream.
Now let us analyze what it means to become a permanent member of the Security Council and decide ourselves whether it is worth a goal as such.
The major reasons that the Indian establishment offers to its citizens for their obsession with the permanent membership of the Security Council are the following:
1. United Nations Security council body is the most important body in terms of international politics in modern world.
2. Security Council membership is prestigious that it offers great power and influence in the world of International affairs.
3. Being a permanent member of the Security Council is a recognization of India’s achievements as a nation.
To counter these arguments let me state these counter arguments.
1. United nations Security Council is not the most important policy making body in the world. It was created by the winners in the Second World War to ensure the post-world war II era world in a way which helps those powers achieve their geo-political interests. The UN Security Council never played its rightful role in ending the major conflicts of the 20-th century like the Korean war, the Vietnam war (both wars there involving first France and then the United States) , the conflicts at Congo , the Bangladesh war , the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan , the Israeli invasion of Lebanon etc. These conflicts started because one or more permanent members of the security council wanted them for their own geo-political interest and those conflicts were ended only when those interests were either fulfilled or the costs involved in running those conflicts were just too large for the permanent member of the security council.(like the soviet war in Afghanistan or the French colonial wars in Indo-China).
2. Security Council membership is very prestigious but that does not mean it will give India the amount of leverage and influence in geo-politics that we believe in. To have influence in International affairs you need to have that amount of clout where others come to you for help and advice. To help underscore the point let us look at the example of Turkey. Turkey used to have very little friends in the West Asian or North African region. It had historically hostile relationships with Greece, Armenia, Syria, Iran etc. It almost went to war with Syria during the early 1990-s. There was a proverb in Turkey in those days saying that “A Turk has only one friend and he is another Turk” But from 2002- onwards Turkey embarked upon a policy called “zero problems with neighbors” and gradually it has started to bear its fruits. Turkey now enjoys very cordial business and political relations with Syria and Iran. Turkish companies dominate in the reconstruction efforts in post-war Iraq. Turkey is building a visa free regime with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Talks are on to bring in Iran and Russia also in the same zone. Turkish relations with Armenia and Greece also have improved quite a lot compared to the past. Even during the current political upheaval and revolutionary movements in West Asia and North Africa, influential leaders of the revolution like the leader of ennahda movement in Tunisia Racchid Ghanoucchi or the famous Muslim intellectual Tariq Ramadan highlights Turkey as the model to follow. The example of Turkey emphasizes the point that one need to build up bridges of cooperation so that your neighbors are comfortable that your interests do not hurt theirs and they are eager to collaborate.
3. The permanent members of the Security Council do not derive their legitimacies from their veto power. Whatever legitimacy they have is because of their political, economic, cultural or military achievements either in the past or in the present. United States derives her recognition from the fact that she is the overwhelming superior nation in terms of military and strategic perspectives. China derives its legitimacy from its recent unprecedented economic growth. United Kingdom and France derives their legitimacies from their colonial and cultural legacies. The Russian federation derives her legitimacy from her vast reserves of natural resources and from her huge stockpile of nuclear weapons. The overall picture is all the permanent members of the United Nations security council are recognized as powerful because of their past and present achievements in different fields but not because their permanent membership in the United Nations security council.
In the end , one has to mention that real influence in World Affairs does not come from your permanent membership at some elite club but it comes when other nations come to you believing that you have capabilities to help them solve their problems or we reach out to the world to engage it with our own initiatives. If we look at the past efforts of Indian foreign policy establishment in this regard , a lot remains to be expected on that front. Without this our hopes of gaining real influence in World Affairs will remain as it has been since the death of our first prime minister i.e. a pipedream.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Global trends to watch out in 2011
This New Year has started with a bang which no one in the world expected. The dictator of Tunisia, a longtime friend of the West and the sole superpower in the World, has fallen from power thanks to spontaneous popular protests by the people of that country. The same protests can be seen on the streets in most of the other parts of the region like Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan or Yemen.
I believe the main reasons behind these popular protests are public outrage over the economic misery in these countries as well as the continuing inability and unwillingness on the parts of the governments in these countries to do something about in alleviating the economic misery of their own peoples.
All the countries in question have a large population of educated and unemployed young man who do not see any hope of changes in their miserable lives. These people are educated but without any jobs and the governments in these countries are oppressive and corrupt. The governments in these countries are also unable to control the rise in prices of essential commodities in their countries. This is a dangerous mix which goes on to produce the types of revolutions which overthrow even the most and tyrannical regimes the world has ever seen.
The phenomenon of internet and social networks have also played their parts in organizing and orchestrating people into action against what they perceive to be their common enemy: their tyrannical governments. I believe we need to look very closely into events from the West Asia throughout the year of 2011. As someone said “things are really interesting …. Things are just hotting up”.
On another part of the world, Washington DC saw the summit meeting between the leaders of the USA and China, the incumbent sole superpower and the upcoming power. I believe the main issue that will dominate the discussions between these two potential rivals will be economic in nature. That issue is: how much the Chinese are ready to accommodate to help American multi-nationals set up their shops in China. As we all know that China is the fastest growing economy in the World and the lure of lucrative Chinese market in terms of key economic sectors like green technology, information technology, commercial aviation and automobiles is too great for American corporations to ignore.
China is not only a lucrative market in terms of consumers but it is also very lucrative in terms of labor costs and easy credit availability. In deed many high end American corporations (like the one here) are thinking about moving their production bases to China for these reasons.
American corporations now days derive most of their potential revenues from places outside USA like China and they are increasingly looking to shift more of their business operations to that part of the World. Indeed that makes sense from an economic viewpoint.
But doing business with China can also mean that you need to share your niche technologies and ideas with companies who in future may become your competitors. Indeed that is the condition that Chinese government is increasingly attaching alongside any lucrative offers to business in China. The year of 2011 will see more of this.
Ultimately it will boil down to how much each side in the bargaining: i.e. the Chinese and the American multi-nationals are ready to offer to each other. Now I believe this is the relationship between the American and other western multi-nationals and the Chinese which is going to decide the future in this century.
So these two trends i.e. the popular uprisings in the Western Asian region as well as the relationship between the Chinese and American multi-nationals are going to dominate the rest of 2011. I would like to quote Robert Fisk in terms of final outcomes in both these two trends: “We do not know what comes next. Perhaps only history can answer this question.”
I believe the main reasons behind these popular protests are public outrage over the economic misery in these countries as well as the continuing inability and unwillingness on the parts of the governments in these countries to do something about in alleviating the economic misery of their own peoples.
All the countries in question have a large population of educated and unemployed young man who do not see any hope of changes in their miserable lives. These people are educated but without any jobs and the governments in these countries are oppressive and corrupt. The governments in these countries are also unable to control the rise in prices of essential commodities in their countries. This is a dangerous mix which goes on to produce the types of revolutions which overthrow even the most and tyrannical regimes the world has ever seen.
The phenomenon of internet and social networks have also played their parts in organizing and orchestrating people into action against what they perceive to be their common enemy: their tyrannical governments. I believe we need to look very closely into events from the West Asia throughout the year of 2011. As someone said “things are really interesting …. Things are just hotting up”.
On another part of the world, Washington DC saw the summit meeting between the leaders of the USA and China, the incumbent sole superpower and the upcoming power. I believe the main issue that will dominate the discussions between these two potential rivals will be economic in nature. That issue is: how much the Chinese are ready to accommodate to help American multi-nationals set up their shops in China. As we all know that China is the fastest growing economy in the World and the lure of lucrative Chinese market in terms of key economic sectors like green technology, information technology, commercial aviation and automobiles is too great for American corporations to ignore.
China is not only a lucrative market in terms of consumers but it is also very lucrative in terms of labor costs and easy credit availability. In deed many high end American corporations (like the one here) are thinking about moving their production bases to China for these reasons.
American corporations now days derive most of their potential revenues from places outside USA like China and they are increasingly looking to shift more of their business operations to that part of the World. Indeed that makes sense from an economic viewpoint.
But doing business with China can also mean that you need to share your niche technologies and ideas with companies who in future may become your competitors. Indeed that is the condition that Chinese government is increasingly attaching alongside any lucrative offers to business in China. The year of 2011 will see more of this.
Ultimately it will boil down to how much each side in the bargaining: i.e. the Chinese and the American multi-nationals are ready to offer to each other. Now I believe this is the relationship between the American and other western multi-nationals and the Chinese which is going to decide the future in this century.
So these two trends i.e. the popular uprisings in the Western Asian region as well as the relationship between the Chinese and American multi-nationals are going to dominate the rest of 2011. I would like to quote Robert Fisk in terms of final outcomes in both these two trends: “We do not know what comes next. Perhaps only history can answer this question.”
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Some serious questions raised by the Wikileaks saga
A first look at Julian Assange does not reveal much about the man. Indeed he looks like any other blonde westerner in his late-30s. But thanks to his website wiki leak’s revelations about American diplomatic activities, this man has certainly become the no.1 Target in the eyes of World’s most powerful nation. Influential commentators like Jonah Goldberg in the USA have already started calling for Assange’s head.
After going through all these events, I have some questions to ask to my readers.
The first question is regarding the claim of the Western world to call itself “an open-minded, progressive society “. We have seen the Western pundits over the years calling the Chinese, the Russians or some of the Muslim-majority countries (all those countries who oppose American policies in their regions) as “close-minded, backward societies” since according to these Western pundits , these countries do not tolerate descent or difference of opinion. People like Liu Xiaobo, Salman Rushdie, Taslima Nasreen or Alexander Solzhenitsyn; are termed as “pioneers”,” freedom-fighters “or “liberals” and prizes like the “noble peace prize” or “knighthood” are bestowed upon these individuals since according to the Western scholars these people “showed their guts in fighting against oppression and tyranny”. Now if we take a very close look at the kinds of statements some of those Western commentators and government spokespeople have been making about Assange since the beginning of this Wiki leaks episode , one wonders whether the claim of the those very same Western pundits to call themselves “open-minded , enlightened” is justified or not. After all “enlightened and open-minded people” should have broad-mind to accept something even if they did not like it. The behavior of these Western critics of Assange just does not fit into that “open-minded, liberal” category. Death threats have been made against Assange, Interpol has raised a worldwide arrest warrant against this man and attempts have been made to take down the Wiki leaks website itself. So the question is if the “liberal, enlightened” Western World cannot tolerate Julian Assange then whether it is justified in calling itself “liberal, enlightened or open-minded or not”. Now will Assange get a noble prize for 2011? I doubt it.
The second is regarding the justification of the actions perpetrated by the Western world when it came to Julian Assange.The information that Wikileaks has provided is not “world-changing” i.e. the information is basically low-level American diplomats sending some information back home. These documents do contain whatever these diplomats as well as some foreign leaders think about some issues but they do not contain any special information like a specific political or military plan or strategy which if leaked can significantly impact events in a global way. So the question which should be asked is whether the Western particularly the American government is justified in hounding Julian Assange the way they have done.
I leave it to my readers to answer these two questions.
After going through all these events, I have some questions to ask to my readers.
The first question is regarding the claim of the Western world to call itself “an open-minded, progressive society “. We have seen the Western pundits over the years calling the Chinese, the Russians or some of the Muslim-majority countries (all those countries who oppose American policies in their regions) as “close-minded, backward societies” since according to these Western pundits , these countries do not tolerate descent or difference of opinion. People like Liu Xiaobo, Salman Rushdie, Taslima Nasreen or Alexander Solzhenitsyn; are termed as “pioneers”,” freedom-fighters “or “liberals” and prizes like the “noble peace prize” or “knighthood” are bestowed upon these individuals since according to the Western scholars these people “showed their guts in fighting against oppression and tyranny”. Now if we take a very close look at the kinds of statements some of those Western commentators and government spokespeople have been making about Assange since the beginning of this Wiki leaks episode , one wonders whether the claim of the those very same Western pundits to call themselves “open-minded , enlightened” is justified or not. After all “enlightened and open-minded people” should have broad-mind to accept something even if they did not like it. The behavior of these Western critics of Assange just does not fit into that “open-minded, liberal” category. Death threats have been made against Assange, Interpol has raised a worldwide arrest warrant against this man and attempts have been made to take down the Wiki leaks website itself. So the question is if the “liberal, enlightened” Western World cannot tolerate Julian Assange then whether it is justified in calling itself “liberal, enlightened or open-minded or not”. Now will Assange get a noble prize for 2011? I doubt it.
The second is regarding the justification of the actions perpetrated by the Western world when it came to Julian Assange.The information that Wikileaks has provided is not “world-changing” i.e. the information is basically low-level American diplomats sending some information back home. These documents do contain whatever these diplomats as well as some foreign leaders think about some issues but they do not contain any special information like a specific political or military plan or strategy which if leaked can significantly impact events in a global way. So the question which should be asked is whether the Western particularly the American government is justified in hounding Julian Assange the way they have done.
I leave it to my readers to answer these two questions.
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Advantage China in the new great game of the century
Before I begin this, I would like to ask a question to my readers, what was the biggest factor behind the victory of the British in both the World Wars? The answer is simple but it might astonish you. The answer is: the British controlled the Suez Canal throughout the two world wars.
Let me tell my readers, the biggest driving factor in winning any war is a steady flow of energy supplies. The phrase “steady flow of energy supplies” means that you need a reliable source from where you get your energy i.e. oil and gas and a stable and secure infrastructure for channeling those resources into your wartime economy as well as your military machines that desperately need those, throughout the war.
This was the case in both the two world wars. The British through their effective control of the Suez Canal controlled those crucial energy supply routes which fed their large navies and strong military machines in both those two wars. In those days Suez Canal used to be the biggest supply route for transporting vital energy resources to Britain.
Apart from that, Britain was in control of vital energy extracting sources at that time. The biggest British company as the time (as well as the largest British taxpayer) was Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (which would later be known as British Petroleum or BP). The company through its absolute monopoly in the Iranian oil industry controlled some of the biggest oil fields in the world at the time. The British government was one of the biggest stakeholders in the company at the time. In short with her control of Iranian oil as well as the Suez Canal, the British secured a constant a steady source of energy for her military machines throughout the two world wars, which proved to be the key regarding British victory in both those two World Wars.
If we have a look at our time, we see patterns of a new great game emerging out in our world. The original great game was played between the Russian Czars and British governor-generals in India for strategic control of the sub-continent and central Asia. The new great game is being played for the control of the extremely vital and quickly dwindling natural resources in the World. For the benefit of my readers let us assume that the two main contenders in this great game are China and India.
Before I go into detail let me share with my readers some facts:
Rank Country
1 Saudi Arabia
2 Canada
3 Iran
4 Iraq
5 Kuwait
6 Venezuela
7 United Arab Emirates
8 Russia
9 Libya
10 Nigeria
Table1: Top 10 countries in the World with biggest proven Oil Reserves
(Source: CIA-fact book 2009)
Rank Country
1 Russia
2 Iran
3 Qatar
4 Turkmenistan
5 Saudi Arabia
6 United States
7 United Arab Emirates
8 Nigeria
9 Venezuela
10 Algeria
Table2: Top 10 countries in the World with biggest proven Natural Gas Reserves
(Source: CIA-fact book 2009)
These two above tables would help my readers to understand the potential energy resources in the World, the new competitors in the new great game are playing for.
Now let us have a look at what the Indians and the Chinese have been doing lately in this great game. Let me start with China.
1. Bypassing the sea lanes: China just overtook the USA as the biggest energy consumer in the World. China has been growing at a rate of 10% for most of the last two decades and it wants to continue on that path. Since most of China’s energy trade goes through two major international shipping lanes i.e. the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz and both these two shipping lanes are heavily influenced and controlled by American navy ships. China is yet to have the same naval power to overwhelm American navies in these two areas. Now in a situation of war, China risks of losing control of its most important energy supplies in adversarial naval attacks on Chinese ships going through these two above mentioned shipping lanes. So the Chinese have come up with another idea. They want to bypass these naval shipping lines altogether. The Chinese are going about creating overland pipelines which will bring oil and natural gas to China from central Asian countries like Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan etc. China is also collaborating with the Russian federation to bring natural gas from Russia to China, through overland oil pipelines. So when all these oil pipelines go operational the Chinese have got the proverbial Plan-B in place if the adversary closes the sea-lanes in the time of a conflict.
2. Diversifying the sources: China does business with all types of regimes whom the rest of the world might not consider too highly. Chinese are talking about purchasing oil from countries as far as Venezuela in Latin America as well as countries like Sudan, Nigeria and Angola in Africa. Angola is China’s biggest supplier of oil in Africa. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Myanmar’s military junta whom the rest of the world considers as “rouge states” are only too happy to sell their oil and gas to China. In fact, Iran is the second largest energy supplier for China. When Americans and the Europeans put heavy economic sanctions on Iran, they put their own energy companies out of business from that resource-rich country. That is the gap, Chinese are too eager to fill in. A crucial example of this is the investments in Iran’s South Pars gas field. This Iranian natural gas field is believed to be the largest of its kind in the World. In May, 2010 Iran invited companies from all over the world to invest in this venture for its development. Western companies walked out of the bidding process fearing American sanctions. This enabled the Chinese national Oil Corporation to purchase the exclusive rights along with some other companies to develop this field. This was another feather in Chinese cap. In short , any regime, irrespective of political inclination (whether it is a tyranny , democracy , autocracy or a military dictatorship) in the world which has got oil and gas in its country , can count on the Chinese to come to its capital with big , fat checkbooks. All this ensures much diversified sources of energy for China.
3. Building in the alliances: The Chinese are building infrastructure in important, strategic places which would help them to transport oil and gas to their country. China is looking at building ties with countries which may not have too much oil or gas but they are situated in very key geographical locations of the globe. A case in point is the port of Gwadar, built at Pakistan by the joint effort of Pakistan and China. This port is strategically situated right at the head of the Strait of Hormuz. A naval presence at this port would help the Chinese to monitor any strategic adversarial activities in the Strait of Hormuz. Apart from the strategic significance there are plans to connect this port with the Karakoram highway in northern Pakistan which would help to link the port to China itself. This could allow crucial energy supplies from Iran coming to Gwadar and then going to China through this route. Chinese are also building similar infrastructure in places like Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Chittagong in Bangladesh which would help them to keep track of the situations in the Strait of Malacca. Apart from that China is also talking about strategic alliances with key countries like Turkey. This week, very influential foreign minister of Turkey, Ahmet Dovutoglu was in China, discussing among other things the creation of a joint strategic group involving China, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan to face common strategic adversaries in the coming years.
4. Wooing the Chinese: One interesting case to note here is that since China is the biggest consumer of oil and gas in the World, now all producers of oil and gas are competing for this biggest market. They are coming up with all sorts of ideas to woo the Chinese. This is like all the rich boys in the town trying to woo the most beautiful girl in the town. A case in point is Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia which happens to be world’s largest producer of oil is in competition with Iran for the leadership of the Muslim world. Recently, the Saudis offered the Chinese to same amount of oil as Iran (China’s second largest oil supplier) in much lesser price. (source: http://milfuegos.blogspot.com/2010/10/pepe-escobar-pipelineistans-new-silk.html )Chinese can only enjoy the situation as it goes. The Americans who were the biggest energy consumers of the world, until now, could have enjoyed the same wooing but for their refusal to do business with important energy producing countries like Iran, Iraq and Venezuela.
To summarize all of these efforts, the Chinese have got diverse energy sources as well as infrastructure put in place to mitigate any emergency including a confrontation with any potential adversary. They are building strategic alliances and the largest oil producers in the World are eager to enter into the lucrative Chinese market.
Now let us have a look at what we have been doing on the “energy security” front. Before I go on to details, let us share some numbers here. India’s imports in the April-August quarter of 2010 grew by 33% to result in a trade deficit of $56 billion dollars. (My readers please note that the Chinese trade surplus grew by about 29% during the same period) This high import bill was a result of a 31.7% growth in the oil imports. Now when our prime minister talks about growing like 10% each year, we need more energy supply and since an overwhelming portion (about 1/3-rd) of our total energy consumption is from oil and gas (despite those loud slogans of clean nuclear energy and “Go green”) imports (70% of our total oil consumption is imported primarily from the gulf region), we can safely assume that this will continue to grow. This means that while we talk about growing at over 10%, our trade deficits are already growing at more than 10% each year.
Now let us look at what policies we have been following to check these facts.
1. Low Diversification: Our top 5 oil importers are all from the Western Asia region with Saudi Arabia being the biggest of them all. Our natural gas consumption is minimal compared to our oil imports. In the past few years, we have tried to venture into countries like Sudan, Myanmar, Turkmenistan and Iran but our efforts have always been defeated by the Chinese with their higher bidding capabilities. At this moment there is no visible effort by the Indian government or the Indian companies to venture into important oil producing countries like Iran, Venezuela and Russia for the same.
2. Death of IPI, birth of IPC: My readers will be familiar of the oil and gas pipeline called “IPI” (Iran-Pakistan-India) which was supposed to bring the natural gas from Iran to Pakistan into India. This project was also hailed as “peace pipeline” by the media. But thanks to our commitments towards our American friends, we shelved that project. Now this year, the Iranians and Pakistanis declared that they will go ahead with their part on the pipeline irrespective of Indian participation. Now China is only waiting on the wings to join in the process. So very soon we might see IPI being converted into IPC (Iran-Pakistan-China) pipeline. This would not only bring much needed gas from Iran to China via Pakistan but this would be the beginning of a strategic axis which may be of great geo-political and geo-strategic significance in future.
3. Strategic alignment: Since the signing of the ground-breaking Indo-US civilian, nuclear deal there has been a lot of talk circulating in the Indian media about India aligning itself with the USA against China. Aligning ourselves with the US means not only antagonizing China but antagonizing some of the key energy producers in the World like Iran and Venezuela. Let us face this fact; historically we always had a strong relationship with Iran in terms of energy supplies.(Last year Iran supplied 16% of our total imported oil) Iran has got a lot of oil and gas but it lacks the technical capabilities in infrastructure and refining capacities due to American economic sanctions. Indian companies like say Reliance who are world beaters in terms of oil and gas refinery technology, could have had in Iran, an extremely lucrative market. But thanks to our commitment towards our American friends we have given up that market. Very recently it was announced that Indian companies are curtailing their investments in that country.
4. Greater growth, greater deficits: As I have already mentioned that since we are growing rapidly, our demand for energy will also grow rapidly. Since we derive an overwhelming percentage of our oil and gas through imports, one has to safely assume that we will incur greater import bills thereby incurring greater trade deficits. If things continue to go like they have been in the past few years, our higher percentages of growth will bring along higher percentages of deficits also. In the long term that could only mean we have to borrow from outsiders (probably China since they will have the most amount of money in future) to balance our budgets. That does not augur well for our dream of being a future superpower.
In the final analysis, one has to admit that at this time in this great game it is “Advantage China” due to the better planning, strategising and execution by the Chinese leaders. We might dream about being the future superpower but if current trends continue we may become the future “borrowing behemoth”.
P.S.: There is one piece of good news in all this for Indian companies particularly the Software companies. With China investing in heavily in these oil and gas pipelines, I believe there will be great need in future for automated software-driven solutions for running those pipeline systems effectively and efficiently. But will our famed software companies wake up to this great opportunity?
Let me tell my readers, the biggest driving factor in winning any war is a steady flow of energy supplies. The phrase “steady flow of energy supplies” means that you need a reliable source from where you get your energy i.e. oil and gas and a stable and secure infrastructure for channeling those resources into your wartime economy as well as your military machines that desperately need those, throughout the war.
This was the case in both the two world wars. The British through their effective control of the Suez Canal controlled those crucial energy supply routes which fed their large navies and strong military machines in both those two wars. In those days Suez Canal used to be the biggest supply route for transporting vital energy resources to Britain.
Apart from that, Britain was in control of vital energy extracting sources at that time. The biggest British company as the time (as well as the largest British taxpayer) was Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (which would later be known as British Petroleum or BP). The company through its absolute monopoly in the Iranian oil industry controlled some of the biggest oil fields in the world at the time. The British government was one of the biggest stakeholders in the company at the time. In short with her control of Iranian oil as well as the Suez Canal, the British secured a constant a steady source of energy for her military machines throughout the two world wars, which proved to be the key regarding British victory in both those two World Wars.
If we have a look at our time, we see patterns of a new great game emerging out in our world. The original great game was played between the Russian Czars and British governor-generals in India for strategic control of the sub-continent and central Asia. The new great game is being played for the control of the extremely vital and quickly dwindling natural resources in the World. For the benefit of my readers let us assume that the two main contenders in this great game are China and India.
Before I go into detail let me share with my readers some facts:
Rank Country
1 Saudi Arabia
2 Canada
3 Iran
4 Iraq
5 Kuwait
6 Venezuela
7 United Arab Emirates
8 Russia
9 Libya
10 Nigeria
Table1: Top 10 countries in the World with biggest proven Oil Reserves
(Source: CIA-fact book 2009)
Rank Country
1 Russia
2 Iran
3 Qatar
4 Turkmenistan
5 Saudi Arabia
6 United States
7 United Arab Emirates
8 Nigeria
9 Venezuela
10 Algeria
Table2: Top 10 countries in the World with biggest proven Natural Gas Reserves
(Source: CIA-fact book 2009)
These two above tables would help my readers to understand the potential energy resources in the World, the new competitors in the new great game are playing for.
Now let us have a look at what the Indians and the Chinese have been doing lately in this great game. Let me start with China.
1. Bypassing the sea lanes: China just overtook the USA as the biggest energy consumer in the World. China has been growing at a rate of 10% for most of the last two decades and it wants to continue on that path. Since most of China’s energy trade goes through two major international shipping lanes i.e. the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz and both these two shipping lanes are heavily influenced and controlled by American navy ships. China is yet to have the same naval power to overwhelm American navies in these two areas. Now in a situation of war, China risks of losing control of its most important energy supplies in adversarial naval attacks on Chinese ships going through these two above mentioned shipping lanes. So the Chinese have come up with another idea. They want to bypass these naval shipping lines altogether. The Chinese are going about creating overland pipelines which will bring oil and natural gas to China from central Asian countries like Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan etc. China is also collaborating with the Russian federation to bring natural gas from Russia to China, through overland oil pipelines. So when all these oil pipelines go operational the Chinese have got the proverbial Plan-B in place if the adversary closes the sea-lanes in the time of a conflict.
2. Diversifying the sources: China does business with all types of regimes whom the rest of the world might not consider too highly. Chinese are talking about purchasing oil from countries as far as Venezuela in Latin America as well as countries like Sudan, Nigeria and Angola in Africa. Angola is China’s biggest supplier of oil in Africa. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Myanmar’s military junta whom the rest of the world considers as “rouge states” are only too happy to sell their oil and gas to China. In fact, Iran is the second largest energy supplier for China. When Americans and the Europeans put heavy economic sanctions on Iran, they put their own energy companies out of business from that resource-rich country. That is the gap, Chinese are too eager to fill in. A crucial example of this is the investments in Iran’s South Pars gas field. This Iranian natural gas field is believed to be the largest of its kind in the World. In May, 2010 Iran invited companies from all over the world to invest in this venture for its development. Western companies walked out of the bidding process fearing American sanctions. This enabled the Chinese national Oil Corporation to purchase the exclusive rights along with some other companies to develop this field. This was another feather in Chinese cap. In short , any regime, irrespective of political inclination (whether it is a tyranny , democracy , autocracy or a military dictatorship) in the world which has got oil and gas in its country , can count on the Chinese to come to its capital with big , fat checkbooks. All this ensures much diversified sources of energy for China.
3. Building in the alliances: The Chinese are building infrastructure in important, strategic places which would help them to transport oil and gas to their country. China is looking at building ties with countries which may not have too much oil or gas but they are situated in very key geographical locations of the globe. A case in point is the port of Gwadar, built at Pakistan by the joint effort of Pakistan and China. This port is strategically situated right at the head of the Strait of Hormuz. A naval presence at this port would help the Chinese to monitor any strategic adversarial activities in the Strait of Hormuz. Apart from the strategic significance there are plans to connect this port with the Karakoram highway in northern Pakistan which would help to link the port to China itself. This could allow crucial energy supplies from Iran coming to Gwadar and then going to China through this route. Chinese are also building similar infrastructure in places like Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Chittagong in Bangladesh which would help them to keep track of the situations in the Strait of Malacca. Apart from that China is also talking about strategic alliances with key countries like Turkey. This week, very influential foreign minister of Turkey, Ahmet Dovutoglu was in China, discussing among other things the creation of a joint strategic group involving China, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan to face common strategic adversaries in the coming years.
4. Wooing the Chinese: One interesting case to note here is that since China is the biggest consumer of oil and gas in the World, now all producers of oil and gas are competing for this biggest market. They are coming up with all sorts of ideas to woo the Chinese. This is like all the rich boys in the town trying to woo the most beautiful girl in the town. A case in point is Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia which happens to be world’s largest producer of oil is in competition with Iran for the leadership of the Muslim world. Recently, the Saudis offered the Chinese to same amount of oil as Iran (China’s second largest oil supplier) in much lesser price. (source: http://milfuegos.blogspot.com/2010/10/pepe-escobar-pipelineistans-new-silk.html )Chinese can only enjoy the situation as it goes. The Americans who were the biggest energy consumers of the world, until now, could have enjoyed the same wooing but for their refusal to do business with important energy producing countries like Iran, Iraq and Venezuela.
To summarize all of these efforts, the Chinese have got diverse energy sources as well as infrastructure put in place to mitigate any emergency including a confrontation with any potential adversary. They are building strategic alliances and the largest oil producers in the World are eager to enter into the lucrative Chinese market.
Now let us have a look at what we have been doing on the “energy security” front. Before I go on to details, let us share some numbers here. India’s imports in the April-August quarter of 2010 grew by 33% to result in a trade deficit of $56 billion dollars. (My readers please note that the Chinese trade surplus grew by about 29% during the same period) This high import bill was a result of a 31.7% growth in the oil imports. Now when our prime minister talks about growing like 10% each year, we need more energy supply and since an overwhelming portion (about 1/3-rd) of our total energy consumption is from oil and gas (despite those loud slogans of clean nuclear energy and “Go green”) imports (70% of our total oil consumption is imported primarily from the gulf region), we can safely assume that this will continue to grow. This means that while we talk about growing at over 10%, our trade deficits are already growing at more than 10% each year.
Now let us look at what policies we have been following to check these facts.
1. Low Diversification: Our top 5 oil importers are all from the Western Asia region with Saudi Arabia being the biggest of them all. Our natural gas consumption is minimal compared to our oil imports. In the past few years, we have tried to venture into countries like Sudan, Myanmar, Turkmenistan and Iran but our efforts have always been defeated by the Chinese with their higher bidding capabilities. At this moment there is no visible effort by the Indian government or the Indian companies to venture into important oil producing countries like Iran, Venezuela and Russia for the same.
2. Death of IPI, birth of IPC: My readers will be familiar of the oil and gas pipeline called “IPI” (Iran-Pakistan-India) which was supposed to bring the natural gas from Iran to Pakistan into India. This project was also hailed as “peace pipeline” by the media. But thanks to our commitments towards our American friends, we shelved that project. Now this year, the Iranians and Pakistanis declared that they will go ahead with their part on the pipeline irrespective of Indian participation. Now China is only waiting on the wings to join in the process. So very soon we might see IPI being converted into IPC (Iran-Pakistan-China) pipeline. This would not only bring much needed gas from Iran to China via Pakistan but this would be the beginning of a strategic axis which may be of great geo-political and geo-strategic significance in future.
3. Strategic alignment: Since the signing of the ground-breaking Indo-US civilian, nuclear deal there has been a lot of talk circulating in the Indian media about India aligning itself with the USA against China. Aligning ourselves with the US means not only antagonizing China but antagonizing some of the key energy producers in the World like Iran and Venezuela. Let us face this fact; historically we always had a strong relationship with Iran in terms of energy supplies.(Last year Iran supplied 16% of our total imported oil) Iran has got a lot of oil and gas but it lacks the technical capabilities in infrastructure and refining capacities due to American economic sanctions. Indian companies like say Reliance who are world beaters in terms of oil and gas refinery technology, could have had in Iran, an extremely lucrative market. But thanks to our commitment towards our American friends we have given up that market. Very recently it was announced that Indian companies are curtailing their investments in that country.
4. Greater growth, greater deficits: As I have already mentioned that since we are growing rapidly, our demand for energy will also grow rapidly. Since we derive an overwhelming percentage of our oil and gas through imports, one has to safely assume that we will incur greater import bills thereby incurring greater trade deficits. If things continue to go like they have been in the past few years, our higher percentages of growth will bring along higher percentages of deficits also. In the long term that could only mean we have to borrow from outsiders (probably China since they will have the most amount of money in future) to balance our budgets. That does not augur well for our dream of being a future superpower.
In the final analysis, one has to admit that at this time in this great game it is “Advantage China” due to the better planning, strategising and execution by the Chinese leaders. We might dream about being the future superpower but if current trends continue we may become the future “borrowing behemoth”.
P.S.: There is one piece of good news in all this for Indian companies particularly the Software companies. With China investing in heavily in these oil and gas pipelines, I believe there will be great need in future for automated software-driven solutions for running those pipeline systems effectively and efficiently. But will our famed software companies wake up to this great opportunity?
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
A brief reconstruction of American Exceptionalism-Part 6
We have seen in the last five chapters how the idea of American Exceptionalism has influenced American policies in both home and abroad from American independence till today’s time. The belief that the Americans are an exceptional people, whose ideals, values and the ways of life are both morally and materially superior to the rest of the world, still holds sway among a significant amount among the American people particularly America’s intellectual elite.
America remains world’s strongest military power as well as world’s largest economy (despite strong showing by the countries like China and India in the last decade). Moreover America still retains a disproportionate amount of power in influencing the institutions like the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations Security Council and the World Bank which allows her to influence and shape international opinion according to her interests. Since America still maintains vast magnitude of power which it can project globally and retains the exceptional attitude in reshaping the world into her own image there remains a very strong possibility in future for America impacting the world in a negative way as a consequence of her exceptional beliefs. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are very good examples for this argument.
Now let’s think what the other nations in the World need to do to ensure that they can hold onto their own interest, ideals and values in the face of the global onslaught which has been unleashed by the American exceptionalism since the end of the cold war.
The first and foremost important thing is not to give in to the idea of American exceptionalism, itself. The American state tends to project itself in terms of being an exceptional nation among others with no parallel. It uses every possible technique in the book from World Bank or IMF deals to Hollywood movies to project itself as the ultimate, invincible and unconquerable power in the eyes of the hapless people all around the world. Very often the common people in the world also come under the influence of this propaganda and take the ideas of American exceptionalism, seriously. Not only common people but very often even the power brokers in the world capitals also come under the shock and awe of perceived or actual American power. The recently concluded nuclear deal between India and America is a great example of that kind of reverential attitude towards American power.
The progressive people in the world should look to the situation in those nations whose leaders and citizens have accepted American hegemony and American way of life as their own. Let us go through the examples of Japan and Germany in this respect. Japan although currently being world’s second largest economy, has become standstill in terms of economic productivity, in the last couple of decades. The Japanese economy has virtually seen no growth in the last two decades. To complicate Japanese problems, Japan is going through one of the biggest demographic slumps in her history. The population growth has fallen well below the replacement level of 2 children per couple. Germany which holds the distinction of being the largest economy in the world is also suffering from more or less the same ills. Germany’s population growth rate as well as her economic growth rate has fallen to historic lows among the European countries. Both these two countries have accepted American hegemony as their ultimate fate. In the international arena both these two countries are becoming increasingly irrelevant and marginal as they gradually give up their political and economic innovativeness and ingenuity to America.
Compare to these two countries let us take up the examples of countries like Turkey, Brazil and Venezuela. All these countries are asserting their rights and interests in the face of strong American pressure. They are taking bold and new initiatives to challenge the status quo in the world like the recent Iran-Turkey-Brazil nuclear deal. These countries have accepted that in stead of living under the shadow of “Pax Americana”, their interests will be better served by asserting their own values and interests. This should be the way for the rest of the world to follow if they want to hold onto their own when it comes to asserting their interests in this unipolar world.
The responsibility for the people in countries like India is to constantly remind fellow citizens as well as their political decision makers for not being subservient to the overwhelming American hegemony. For too many times we have seen political elites in countries like India surrendering their countries’ legitimate interests to the American superpower. The common people in countries like India have to face the ultimate consequences for these kinds of submissive behavior towards American hegemon.
It is too tempting for people like us Indians to become overawed with the American power and pomp and leave the matter of dealing with America to our political class.
The fact is that when the consequences of being silent in face of American exceptionalism is in terms of having tragedies like Bhopal and Enron, we simply can not afford that. We have only two choices: either fight against the sense of American exceptionalism in every possible way or become a meek and subservient bystander in face of American hegemony. The choice is ours to make.
America remains world’s strongest military power as well as world’s largest economy (despite strong showing by the countries like China and India in the last decade). Moreover America still retains a disproportionate amount of power in influencing the institutions like the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations Security Council and the World Bank which allows her to influence and shape international opinion according to her interests. Since America still maintains vast magnitude of power which it can project globally and retains the exceptional attitude in reshaping the world into her own image there remains a very strong possibility in future for America impacting the world in a negative way as a consequence of her exceptional beliefs. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are very good examples for this argument.
Now let’s think what the other nations in the World need to do to ensure that they can hold onto their own interest, ideals and values in the face of the global onslaught which has been unleashed by the American exceptionalism since the end of the cold war.
The first and foremost important thing is not to give in to the idea of American exceptionalism, itself. The American state tends to project itself in terms of being an exceptional nation among others with no parallel. It uses every possible technique in the book from World Bank or IMF deals to Hollywood movies to project itself as the ultimate, invincible and unconquerable power in the eyes of the hapless people all around the world. Very often the common people in the world also come under the influence of this propaganda and take the ideas of American exceptionalism, seriously. Not only common people but very often even the power brokers in the world capitals also come under the shock and awe of perceived or actual American power. The recently concluded nuclear deal between India and America is a great example of that kind of reverential attitude towards American power.
The progressive people in the world should look to the situation in those nations whose leaders and citizens have accepted American hegemony and American way of life as their own. Let us go through the examples of Japan and Germany in this respect. Japan although currently being world’s second largest economy, has become standstill in terms of economic productivity, in the last couple of decades. The Japanese economy has virtually seen no growth in the last two decades. To complicate Japanese problems, Japan is going through one of the biggest demographic slumps in her history. The population growth has fallen well below the replacement level of 2 children per couple. Germany which holds the distinction of being the largest economy in the world is also suffering from more or less the same ills. Germany’s population growth rate as well as her economic growth rate has fallen to historic lows among the European countries. Both these two countries have accepted American hegemony as their ultimate fate. In the international arena both these two countries are becoming increasingly irrelevant and marginal as they gradually give up their political and economic innovativeness and ingenuity to America.
Compare to these two countries let us take up the examples of countries like Turkey, Brazil and Venezuela. All these countries are asserting their rights and interests in the face of strong American pressure. They are taking bold and new initiatives to challenge the status quo in the world like the recent Iran-Turkey-Brazil nuclear deal. These countries have accepted that in stead of living under the shadow of “Pax Americana”, their interests will be better served by asserting their own values and interests. This should be the way for the rest of the world to follow if they want to hold onto their own when it comes to asserting their interests in this unipolar world.
The responsibility for the people in countries like India is to constantly remind fellow citizens as well as their political decision makers for not being subservient to the overwhelming American hegemony. For too many times we have seen political elites in countries like India surrendering their countries’ legitimate interests to the American superpower. The common people in countries like India have to face the ultimate consequences for these kinds of submissive behavior towards American hegemon.
It is too tempting for people like us Indians to become overawed with the American power and pomp and leave the matter of dealing with America to our political class.
The fact is that when the consequences of being silent in face of American exceptionalism is in terms of having tragedies like Bhopal and Enron, we simply can not afford that. We have only two choices: either fight against the sense of American exceptionalism in every possible way or become a meek and subservient bystander in face of American hegemony. The choice is ours to make.
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