Why the West won the day
The second decade of the twenty first century seems to be throwing up exciting times for the millennium-old relationship between the East and the West. The last four centuries have seen the West first overwhelm the East with superior firepower and then influencing it with her ways, the East has been influenced in the same way the vanquished is influenced by the narrative of the victor.
There were fundamental reasons behind the victory of the West over the East in the last four centuries. Firstly, the West had created her own convictions in the form of nation state and market economy. The West was successful to create her own identity because she thought in terms of reason and critical thinking. The West had come to conclusion about her ideas after an extremely messy and bloody debating period where competing ideas fought to death among themselves; the hundred-year war, French revolution and Napoleonic wars. In the end the, the West had decided that market-economy based nation states are the most superior form for organizing and governing human beings.
Another major reason behind the success of the West has been her jealousness to spread her ideas throughout the World. After spending so much time fighting for her ideas, the West had come to conclude that her ideas are the only beneficial ideas for the World and she wanted to spread those ideas around all over the World. Because the Western ideas whether they came from the pens of Calvin and Luther or from the guns of George Washington or Napoleon; had to assert themselves in the face of fierce opposition. As a result the believers in these ideas which survived the opposition considered these ideas as either divinely selected (in case of the idea of American exceptionalism) or universally applicable (in case of ideas emanating out of the French revolution) and wanted to spread it all over the World. When the Puritans arrived in the New World they considered themselves as divinely elected and when the French defeated the Mamlukes in Egypt, they were also convinced about the absolute supremacy of their ideas over whatever the indigenous peoples of these lands could come up with.
The East had stopped producing any idea with global aspirations by this time. The Ottoman Empire which was the last empire from the East to attempt spreading its influence in the West was decaying rapidly by this time; neither India nor China were also in any position thanks to their weak and moribund societies either to develop any ideal conviction nor to attempt any propagation. The consequence was simple: being overwhelmed by the West due to her military superiority and forced to follow and adopt Western ideas and narratives thanks to the failure on the part of East to come out with idea or conviction. For the last four centuries this has been the case so far in the history of humanity.
The picture of change in the 21-st century
In the twenty first century though, finally the picture seem to be changing somewhat. After spending four centuries under the influence of the West finally the East seemingly showing signs of a come back. Now days the fastest growing economies in the World are China and India, the fastest growing economy in Europe is Turkey, Russia is also showing signs of great comeback after economic collapse in the nineties , a record number of billionaires can be found in China , Russia and India whereas the West seem to be reeling under recession and stagnancy. The East has been masters in trade and commerce (the evidence lies in the historic silk routes) for most of the previous two millenniums and the adoption of some of the principles of Western market economy seem to have helped the East to find its roots and strong points in a new and more effective way.
Another interesting case in point is that since the Second World War, the West has not been able to continue her overwhelming military colonization of the Eastern peoples. India and China got liberated from Western colonialism though India did not reject the Western influence; the small nation of Vietnam achieved her national independence by defeating two successive western colonial powers in the face of just two decades, West had to gradually give up most of her empires in Asia and Africa thanks to popular revolts though she did not give up the attempts to influence these lands ; thanks to a group of loyal allies and proxies the West has been able to still project her influence over a broad sway of her previous colonies even after she had to give them all up.
But in the twenty first century the Western ideas are facing challenges for some simple reasons. Throughout the last 60 years of their existences the IMF and the World Bank has given more or less the same prescription to those nations who had the misfortune to knock at their doors; increase taxes on the common people for generating more revenues, privatize all of your nationalized industries (even if they happen to be run well enough under government control), cut down “unnecessary” spending (which by the definitions of the IMF and the World Bank have often included all government subsidies to the needy and vulnerable in the societies of the poor countries). And the IMF and the World Bank has got very little to show for all of these efforts. An Argentina here, another Greece there, these are all the mementos that IMF has to showcase for all its efforts.
The Western idea of popular representative-based democracy is now universally accepted as the most acceptable norm of governance. However the Western attitude towards implementing what she preaches to the rest on democratic tolerance leaves a lot to be desired. From Mossadegh in Iran to Allende in Chile, the West has looked to secure her interests more than adhering to her own self-preached ideals. The United Nations is on the verge of irrelevancy. The Western eagerness to have her own ways has led the West to go against the wishes of the majority of the United Nations in major issues such as Iraq war in 2003, ongoing Israeli-Palestinian issues and the ongoing war (“kinetic action”) in Libya, thereby considerably adding to the general irrelevancy of the institution itself.
The East should put its foot forward
The time is right for the East to assert its own independent position. There are two reasons for which the East needs to come up with its own ideas. Firstly, the East needs her own ideas and laws regarding government and economic management since the time id ripe for the East to shed its dependence on the West for defining how to govern people and finance. Secondly if the East comes up with parallel ideas for governance and economics then the West would be forced to look into her own ideas thus ensuring change in the Western mindset towards the East.
Let us start with economics first. The West has created institutions like the World Bank and the IMF to balance the budgets of the needy countries and spur them to the path of growth. Successive case studies from Argentina to Pakistan show the failures of these approaches and attitudes. It is time for the major non-Western economies, I mean to say China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and Indonesia to come together and create a global financial institution so as to present a better alternative to the poor and needy nations of the World. The list of countries to the above mentioned could be and should be expanded in future based upon future global trends. These countries which I want to call as the “East” has now sufficient economic muscle behind it in terms of both cash liquidity as well as financial expertise to present an alternative to that of the World Bank or the IMF. The recent economic and mercantile successes of all the above mentioned countries conclude that there are no goods and services in this world that these “Eastern” countries cannot produce with much lower cost and appropriate quality than the West. These successes should propel the “East” to come together and present an alternative institution like the one I mentioned as above. This particular institution can be effective in two counters. One , it will not attach any strings or riders to its agreements with the poor and needy countries in the same way the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund does thereby providing much more economic independence to the governments of the poorer nations and two , it can provide funds for much needed infrastructure improvement in needy areas of the World for example like the recently proposed Turkey-Iran-Pakistan railway as well as improving communication through roads in Central and West Asia and different parts of Africa and Latin America.
The East will not be able to assert its case without using sound strategic, political and military alliances. Unlike the West which is ready in every way to assert her positions with military might the “East” as of now is not looking to transform its economic advantages into concrete military instruments for asserting its interests where those interests clash with that of the West. The organizations like BRICS and SCO should come together for creating an effective military and protecting alliance for protecting its valuable interests in the face of the continuous Western assertion through military alliances like that of NATO.
Now days the battlefield is not restricted to frontlines only but to the minds as well. To win the “battle of hearts and minds” the East should promote think tanks as well as train and use professionals explaining and spreading its ideas all over the World. The emphasis should be both on making the case of the East as well as pointing out the contradictions in the Western economic and political policies which have not been fruitful for the East.
The current global situation indicates that the West is confused about her policies particularly after the 2008 global financial downturn and the recent ongoing events of upheaval in the Western Asia and North African regions. The East though basking in the glory of her achievements in the economic field is yet circumspect and not convinced enough to step into the show. This time in history is the right time for the West after a long time to present its own ideas as a positive alternative to the Western model.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
While the East sleeps, the West rules
My first reaction after watching Dominic Strauss Kahn affair was to ponder about a little bit and then ask myself a question, what made this ripe, old man do what he has done ? Then I realized this man could think about ... well getting away with all those since he knew he was the head of one of the biggest lending institutions in the World , thereby outside the normal course of law , unaccountable by the normal processes of the law.
The main reason that rich and powerful men like DSK could think of getting away with these kinds of crimes is… well, they are the only game in the town. The IMF and its Bretton-woods twin World Bank are the two most important lending institutions in the World, a place where everyone goes for money when their budget balance sheets are finally in red.
The normal prescription of the IMF and the World Bank to their unfortunate patients (read nations in need of balancing their budgets) is similar: cut down your expanses which often boils down to closing down schools for your children, stopping the treatment of the poor in the hospitals and throwing out the needy elderly without their pension benefits and increase taxes on your people. It is said that “a tree is known by the fruits, it bears”. Well, the IMF has a lot of fruits to its credit, the Argentine crisis, the Asean tigers’ crisis and the recent crisis in Greece , Portugal , Spain and the list can go on and on.
Even after selling so many rotten fruits to the public, the IMF can hope to get away and even the maligned DSK can hope to fight for another day is because there is no other player in the market to compete against the ideas the IMF and the World Bank represent.
Let me be very clear here my readers. The West when she is convinced that she has an idea, she would move heaven and earth to implement that idea and will do everything in her power to make the whole world accept that idea. When the West advises us non-Westerners about the virtues free-market economics, make no mistake that she is convinced about her ideas and she will use all the means at her disposal to make everyone of us adhere to those ideas. Unfortunately, we in the “East” (by “East” I mean those who happen to be outside the realm of the privileged club comprising of EU, US, Japan, Australia, Canada and Israel) have to face the consequences if we happen to be at the wrong end of the implementation of those ideas for example say when an Western World Bank economist becomes the economic advisor of an African country without ever setting foot on the soil of that nation and his policies lead to the sad demise of the economy of that country. The people in that country suffer and the World Bank economist just goes for another assignment.
Now this leads to us to the question; why are we in the “East” not doing anything to prevent all these? The historians tell us that the “East” for example China and India led the World in terms of wealth and trade during most of the times of recorded history except say may last two-three centuries of Western domination. Even now days China and India are the two fastest growing economies in the World, the fastest growing economy in Europe happens to be Turkey, in the Latin America Brazil’s economic growth surpasses that of many of her North American counterparts but still why do the global “East” have to listen to the dictates of those World Bank pundits and those IMF experts even when we know those “advises” (read dictates) have only led to ruin for many of us? The answer, in my view is simple: while we in the East look to be numero uno in terms of GDP growth rates, those in the West look to create ideas and propagate them to us. Since we in the “East” neither create any ideas of our own nor have the conviction to implement and propagate those ideas, we are left to follow what the West gives to us.
Here is my solution to it. I believe this is high time for the major economies in the “East” i.e. China, India, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia should come together and create an alternative global financial organization. The above list of the countries must be and should be expandable. I propose that we call this organization “global cooperative bank”. The main function of this institution will be to promote collaboration among different underprivileged (those whom the West shuns for many reasons) countries in the “East” and to help them with their finances and development without the strings and riders, the IMF and the World Bank attaches. This institution could help by investing in the much-needed infrastructure and education projects in Africa, West and Central Asia and Latin America which the West has shunned for various reasons. The fruits of the investments should be shared equally between the underprivileged countries and the investors.
I know there are serious differences between many of us in the “East” but I do believe that we need to come together on this otherwise the West will continue to follow the policy of dividing and ruling over us. And, Yes I know that it will be difficult implementing an organization such as the one I have proposed but I have full confidence if the best of minds from the “East” can come together then surely we will be able to implement alternative ideas like the one I have proposed. I have full confidence in the best of minds in the “East”. And I have strong grounds for my confidence. Last time I checked, I found many of the countries in the “East” for example China and India were running huge trade surpluses over their Western counterparts which goes to show that there are very many goods and services which we in the “East” can produce and export with much lesser cost and assured quality. So if we can do that there is no reason we can not produce ideas which present a better alternative to the World.
There will be two major benefits of the same. The “East” will be able to have her own narrative which it can propose to the West and the West will be able to understand the follies of her own ideas and correct them.
The basic axiom that the market economics fundamentalists teach us is that competition brings improvement in quality of the overall system. I believe the West needs to face some good decent competition in terms of ideas from the “East” and then only we can see a sea change in the global system as we know it. But without that it will be the status quo running on where the East sleeps and the dignity of her women gets compromised by the rich and powerful in the West.
The main reason that rich and powerful men like DSK could think of getting away with these kinds of crimes is… well, they are the only game in the town. The IMF and its Bretton-woods twin World Bank are the two most important lending institutions in the World, a place where everyone goes for money when their budget balance sheets are finally in red.
The normal prescription of the IMF and the World Bank to their unfortunate patients (read nations in need of balancing their budgets) is similar: cut down your expanses which often boils down to closing down schools for your children, stopping the treatment of the poor in the hospitals and throwing out the needy elderly without their pension benefits and increase taxes on your people. It is said that “a tree is known by the fruits, it bears”. Well, the IMF has a lot of fruits to its credit, the Argentine crisis, the Asean tigers’ crisis and the recent crisis in Greece , Portugal , Spain and the list can go on and on.
Even after selling so many rotten fruits to the public, the IMF can hope to get away and even the maligned DSK can hope to fight for another day is because there is no other player in the market to compete against the ideas the IMF and the World Bank represent.
Let me be very clear here my readers. The West when she is convinced that she has an idea, she would move heaven and earth to implement that idea and will do everything in her power to make the whole world accept that idea. When the West advises us non-Westerners about the virtues free-market economics, make no mistake that she is convinced about her ideas and she will use all the means at her disposal to make everyone of us adhere to those ideas. Unfortunately, we in the “East” (by “East” I mean those who happen to be outside the realm of the privileged club comprising of EU, US, Japan, Australia, Canada and Israel) have to face the consequences if we happen to be at the wrong end of the implementation of those ideas for example say when an Western World Bank economist becomes the economic advisor of an African country without ever setting foot on the soil of that nation and his policies lead to the sad demise of the economy of that country. The people in that country suffer and the World Bank economist just goes for another assignment.
Now this leads to us to the question; why are we in the “East” not doing anything to prevent all these? The historians tell us that the “East” for example China and India led the World in terms of wealth and trade during most of the times of recorded history except say may last two-three centuries of Western domination. Even now days China and India are the two fastest growing economies in the World, the fastest growing economy in Europe happens to be Turkey, in the Latin America Brazil’s economic growth surpasses that of many of her North American counterparts but still why do the global “East” have to listen to the dictates of those World Bank pundits and those IMF experts even when we know those “advises” (read dictates) have only led to ruin for many of us? The answer, in my view is simple: while we in the East look to be numero uno in terms of GDP growth rates, those in the West look to create ideas and propagate them to us. Since we in the “East” neither create any ideas of our own nor have the conviction to implement and propagate those ideas, we are left to follow what the West gives to us.
Here is my solution to it. I believe this is high time for the major economies in the “East” i.e. China, India, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia should come together and create an alternative global financial organization. The above list of the countries must be and should be expandable. I propose that we call this organization “global cooperative bank”. The main function of this institution will be to promote collaboration among different underprivileged (those whom the West shuns for many reasons) countries in the “East” and to help them with their finances and development without the strings and riders, the IMF and the World Bank attaches. This institution could help by investing in the much-needed infrastructure and education projects in Africa, West and Central Asia and Latin America which the West has shunned for various reasons. The fruits of the investments should be shared equally between the underprivileged countries and the investors.
I know there are serious differences between many of us in the “East” but I do believe that we need to come together on this otherwise the West will continue to follow the policy of dividing and ruling over us. And, Yes I know that it will be difficult implementing an organization such as the one I have proposed but I have full confidence if the best of minds from the “East” can come together then surely we will be able to implement alternative ideas like the one I have proposed. I have full confidence in the best of minds in the “East”. And I have strong grounds for my confidence. Last time I checked, I found many of the countries in the “East” for example China and India were running huge trade surpluses over their Western counterparts which goes to show that there are very many goods and services which we in the “East” can produce and export with much lesser cost and assured quality. So if we can do that there is no reason we can not produce ideas which present a better alternative to the World.
There will be two major benefits of the same. The “East” will be able to have her own narrative which it can propose to the West and the West will be able to understand the follies of her own ideas and correct them.
The basic axiom that the market economics fundamentalists teach us is that competition brings improvement in quality of the overall system. I believe the West needs to face some good decent competition in terms of ideas from the “East” and then only we can see a sea change in the global system as we know it. But without that it will be the status quo running on where the East sleeps and the dignity of her women gets compromised by the rich and powerful in the West.
Monday, May 16, 2011
The day after the final votes have been counted
During the latest round of various state elections , we could see our great patriotic national media brimming out some very interesting pictures to us. We could see fragile , old men clutching their sticks and going to those vote booths , “they were showing their enthusiasms for the democratic process even at a ripe old age” claimed our mainstream media , we were also shown pictures of how people were voting in the insurgency-affected areas , “democracy won today when people braved their fears to come out and vote” cried our independent-minded , progressive media . As I watched all those pictures , I asked myself why these people bother to vote even by risking their very lives very time ? Does they hope that their lives will be really changed after they have acted upon their right of expressing their popular opinion ?
But think about it my dear readers , do we ever hear the media highlight those same old men after the results have come out ? In our country , we see overwhelmingly the poor people go to vote and the evidence of last 60 years is that their plight by and large remains the same. How many times have we seen our media going to the people after the elections are over ? When the media interviews a person on the voting booth , how many of those media personnel ask whether that person believes his/her wishes will be fulfilled or not after the vote ?
When we do vote for now days do we really think about the issues that we face or we just vote based upon the symbol of a particular party or our liking of a particular leader? We believe that democracy is “of the people, for the people, by the people” but the question is does that really hold true in the 21-st century? Do we really believe that our policy makers have our interests in the back of their minds when they make real, hard, serious policy decisions? If we really look at more than 60 years of our history in this country, that axiom does not hold good. Do we seriously believe that our leaders had our interests in mind when they decided to adopt the five-year plans or for that matter the policies with Pakistan? Do we really believe that our leaders had taken us into confidence when they decided to frame their policies regarding Pakistan or China? Whose interests were on the mind of our leaders when they decided to conduct their policies vis-à-vis the USA after the Bhopal tragedy? When we signed the nuclear energy deal with the USA, whose interests were in the mind of our leaders?
All this brouhaha and razzmatazz about elections and its outcomes hide the plain true fact. Elections distract our perspective from the real issues like unemployment, farmer-suicides or inflations at our hands. We need to ask ourselves this simple question, when we vote, do we vote for ourselves or for the leaders who is being represented on behalf of us?
Now think about this scenario. Suppose I am an Industrialist and I am thinking about bidding for a government tender for constructing a road. Now suppose the cost of the project involves 800 crores and the profit would emerge out as 1000 crores after all costs have been paid. Now as an Industrialist I am thinking about limiting my costs and optimizing my profits. So I offer two main political parties in the state (one is in power and another is in opposition) 100 crore each , for making the cost of the project reduced to 300 crores so that I can optimize my profits from this scenario. Now does this mean corruption? Even if it so how can the system prevent me from doing it since I have both the government and the opposition at the back of my pocket? Now as a voter how can you stop me from doing this?
Let us face the fact, that policymakers in most of the political system (including ours) never think about the common man in the street when they frame their policies. It is also true is that most of the political systems in the world are run by a very small number of people. These are the people who think and take decisions on behalf of others in the system when it comes to the real decision making. That fact is true in any kind of system including the biggest democracy in the world. That is true for all the systems. It is a common trend of mankind to think about themselves while making any decision. The decision makers and leaders in any system also are no exception to this norm. So the normal thing is that when the decision makers take a decision, they normally take it based upon their own interests. The important thing is what can we do to make sure those people think about us when they decide our fates? My sincere question to my dear readers is the system of voting is the only process through which we can remind the decision makers in our system about our preferences and interests?
I understand that it is tough finding out a real solution to this increasing irrelevancy of the Indian voter whereas he is not much needed by the system after the election results are out. After all the system has been in place for such a long time and the average Indian is more or less comfortable with the situation; and why not he should be comfortable? Is this country not an aspiring superpower? Are we not watching our country’s GDP grow by an astonishing 8-9 per cent per year? Did we not just win the World cup? Are we not hosting the IPL currently? Are we not watching new shopping malls and multiplexes crowd out our cities each and every day? So why should we bother even if our leaders struck shady deals behind our backs with foreign or Indian multinationals? After all we have Dhoni and his boys and Bollywood badshahs as well as 9 per cent GDP growth, right? So who cares whether our leaders decide to enrich themselves little bit more or our farmers continue to commit suicides in record numbers?
I do not have any magical solution to this problem. What I can say is that my dear Indian friend, please take a deep breath and think a little bit before you click that button on that AVM. Do not vote a man because either your caste or clan wants you to vote or you like that man’s charisma a little bit more. Vote for the man after being convinced that he can help you resolve your issues in your area after the vote count has ended.
P.S.: This just came to my knowledge. Just after the final votes were counted and a lot of “poribortan” (Bengali for change) took place, the central government decided to increase the fuel prices a little bit more for extracting a little bit more revenue out of the pockets of us. Now go back my dear Indian friend and start the TV. Your favorite IPL team will be batting first!
But think about it my dear readers , do we ever hear the media highlight those same old men after the results have come out ? In our country , we see overwhelmingly the poor people go to vote and the evidence of last 60 years is that their plight by and large remains the same. How many times have we seen our media going to the people after the elections are over ? When the media interviews a person on the voting booth , how many of those media personnel ask whether that person believes his/her wishes will be fulfilled or not after the vote ?
When we do vote for now days do we really think about the issues that we face or we just vote based upon the symbol of a particular party or our liking of a particular leader? We believe that democracy is “of the people, for the people, by the people” but the question is does that really hold true in the 21-st century? Do we really believe that our policy makers have our interests in the back of their minds when they make real, hard, serious policy decisions? If we really look at more than 60 years of our history in this country, that axiom does not hold good. Do we seriously believe that our leaders had our interests in mind when they decided to adopt the five-year plans or for that matter the policies with Pakistan? Do we really believe that our leaders had taken us into confidence when they decided to frame their policies regarding Pakistan or China? Whose interests were on the mind of our leaders when they decided to conduct their policies vis-à-vis the USA after the Bhopal tragedy? When we signed the nuclear energy deal with the USA, whose interests were in the mind of our leaders?
All this brouhaha and razzmatazz about elections and its outcomes hide the plain true fact. Elections distract our perspective from the real issues like unemployment, farmer-suicides or inflations at our hands. We need to ask ourselves this simple question, when we vote, do we vote for ourselves or for the leaders who is being represented on behalf of us?
Now think about this scenario. Suppose I am an Industrialist and I am thinking about bidding for a government tender for constructing a road. Now suppose the cost of the project involves 800 crores and the profit would emerge out as 1000 crores after all costs have been paid. Now as an Industrialist I am thinking about limiting my costs and optimizing my profits. So I offer two main political parties in the state (one is in power and another is in opposition) 100 crore each , for making the cost of the project reduced to 300 crores so that I can optimize my profits from this scenario. Now does this mean corruption? Even if it so how can the system prevent me from doing it since I have both the government and the opposition at the back of my pocket? Now as a voter how can you stop me from doing this?
Let us face the fact, that policymakers in most of the political system (including ours) never think about the common man in the street when they frame their policies. It is also true is that most of the political systems in the world are run by a very small number of people. These are the people who think and take decisions on behalf of others in the system when it comes to the real decision making. That fact is true in any kind of system including the biggest democracy in the world. That is true for all the systems. It is a common trend of mankind to think about themselves while making any decision. The decision makers and leaders in any system also are no exception to this norm. So the normal thing is that when the decision makers take a decision, they normally take it based upon their own interests. The important thing is what can we do to make sure those people think about us when they decide our fates? My sincere question to my dear readers is the system of voting is the only process through which we can remind the decision makers in our system about our preferences and interests?
I understand that it is tough finding out a real solution to this increasing irrelevancy of the Indian voter whereas he is not much needed by the system after the election results are out. After all the system has been in place for such a long time and the average Indian is more or less comfortable with the situation; and why not he should be comfortable? Is this country not an aspiring superpower? Are we not watching our country’s GDP grow by an astonishing 8-9 per cent per year? Did we not just win the World cup? Are we not hosting the IPL currently? Are we not watching new shopping malls and multiplexes crowd out our cities each and every day? So why should we bother even if our leaders struck shady deals behind our backs with foreign or Indian multinationals? After all we have Dhoni and his boys and Bollywood badshahs as well as 9 per cent GDP growth, right? So who cares whether our leaders decide to enrich themselves little bit more or our farmers continue to commit suicides in record numbers?
I do not have any magical solution to this problem. What I can say is that my dear Indian friend, please take a deep breath and think a little bit before you click that button on that AVM. Do not vote a man because either your caste or clan wants you to vote or you like that man’s charisma a little bit more. Vote for the man after being convinced that he can help you resolve your issues in your area after the vote count has ended.
P.S.: This just came to my knowledge. Just after the final votes were counted and a lot of “poribortan” (Bengali for change) took place, the central government decided to increase the fuel prices a little bit more for extracting a little bit more revenue out of the pockets of us. Now go back my dear Indian friend and start the TV. Your favorite IPL team will be batting first!
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
How the Davids of this World can compete against the Goliaths of the world?
The ongoing Western-led military operations in Libya (or should I call them “Kinetic actions” as the Western leaders like to call them?) reminds me of the quote made by ancient Greek philosophers “the strong do what they will; the weak suffer what they must”. Indeed for most part in Human history we have observed this phenomenon of the powerful dictating their and if needed imposing their will upon the weak and getting away with it. That is why it is said that it is the victors who go on to write history.
If you are an independent-minded leader of a small nation and you do have a large amount of natural or other resources inside your borders and to top it off if you want to make your own rules which may not be approved by the superpowers of the World then you are in well … deep , deep trouble.
There are many ways that the superpower of the day may try to cut you down to your size; it may bribe some of the leading stakeholders in your nation like military, intelligence etc to topple you in an outright military coup (e.g. the Iranian military coup in 1953 and the Chilean military coup in 1973) , it may try to create divisions in your country among different ethnicities within your borders for breaking up your country into pieces that it hopes to control (e.g. South Sudan) , imposing crippling economic sanctions (e.g. sanctions on Iran , North Korea and other “rogue states”) or outright military interventions. (Iraq , Afghanistan and Libya )
Now the question is if you happen to be an independent minded leader ala David and facing the Goliath of the day in the modern-day superpower, what options do you have to protect and preserve your sovereignty and dignity. Following are few tricks that you could think about trying out. One fact about all these tricks is that all of them are historically proven and time -tested tactics.
Deterrence: Prevention is always better than cure. So if you are a relatively weak nation facing a bigger and much stronger enemy you should first think about this option. Historically deterrence meant that if you are threatened by a big enemy then you should try to reach out to the enemies of your enemy for help. As they say “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”.
If you are the modern day version of David 0.0 facing the might of the Superpower as a modern version of Goliath 0.0, then the modern day version of your sting 0.0 is: nukes. See how useful Einstein was to the would-be modern Davids of 21-st century. In fact nukes are the first things you should think about if you are even thinking about standing up to the mighty superpower.
So we have got two ways in terms of deterrence i.e. alliance with the enemy of your enemy or the possession of nuclear weapons.
Historical Case Studies: The tiny nation of Cuba managed to remain independent during the turbulent cold war period thanks to its alliance with the Soviet Union.
Pakistan, Israel and North Korea all have survived by adopting both the sub-options i.e. alliance and nukes. In case of Pakistan and North Korea it has been their alliances with China as well as their growing stockpiles of nukes that provide them security.
In case of Israel it is its “special relationship” with the USA and its 300-odd nukes that keep this country afloat.
Downsides: The nuclear weapons are very costly things and going for them might invite significant economic hardships which may threaten your economic well being.
Nuclear weapons may help your cause of deterring your enemy but it may make some of your neighbors nervous about your motives as we can see in the cases of Israel and Iran. These nervous neighbors of yours may turn against you and side with your enemy.
People power: Modern wars are said to be total wars where not only armies but whole societies are involved in the war effort. If you can motivate and include all the segments of your society then there is a very good chance that you can win.
You need to convince your society that this fight is not only necessary for your dignity but also for your very survival. Normally when a stronger nation invades it is depending upon its technical and organizational superiority over you. If your society is motivated and completely back you then you can face even the strongest of the powers since human power is still stronger than machines.
Historical Case Studies: Vietnam is the most classical example of involving your whole society in the war and winning not once, not twice but four times. The small nation of Vietnam which faced the colossal enemies i.e. the likes of France, USA or China managed to outmaneuver and survive against all. Let us look at the success of this tiny nation against the heaviest of odds.
1954- Vietnamese forces defeat the French in Dien Bien Phu to thwart any attempt to by the French to dictate its history.
1973- The last American forces leave the country after failing to defeat the Vietnamese in one of the most bloody and brutal conflicts in modern history.
1978 – Vietnamese forces overrun Cambodia to end the bloody regime of the “Khmer Rouge” i.e. one of World’s notorious mass-murdering regimes.
1979- Vietnamese beat back the Chinese military intervention into their country.
The Vietnamese record of constantly punching above their weight really speaks for itself.
Downsides: It is not so easy to motivate and put the whole of your society behind your war effort. As we all know human beings are generally individualistic and are ready to compromise when faced with a stronger power. You need to have a really strong and motivating leader to keep your people focused even among the most challenging of the times.
Rounding up your traitors: How often a nation is defeated not because of its soldiers but because of its traitors and collaborators who hamstrung it from within!!! It is always important to keep your camp clean from those who are willing to sell you for thirteen peaces of silver.
Historical Case Studies: Throughout recorded history nations have been defeated by the efforts of collaborators and traitors. The Israelis have used their intelligence agency Mossad over the years with great effort to cultivate potential traitors and collaborators among Arab populations. And now days the techniques of Mossad to cultivate potential traitors and collaborators are copied and pasted by all Western intelligence agencies in places like Iraq and Afghanistan.
One of the reasons that the West has been able to dominate the Western Asian region is because of its clever manipulation of the region’s collaborators.
If you are an independent-minded leader who is facing possible collaborators inside your war cabinet then it is always mandatory to find ways to neutralize those people. It is always a good practice to expose these people in public and let the public decide about the fates of these people who are willing to harm their own countries for material benefits.
Downsides: There is no downside in finishing off your traitors and collaborators.
Take the fight to the enemy: There are many ways through which you can take the fight directly to your enemy even though he happens to be much more powerful than you. Many of today’s conventional militaries tend to depend upon diverse computer-based systems for their day-today as well as real combat operations. If you can cultivate a crack team of hackers then you can very easily think about sabotaging the computer network systems of your enemy’s most important military and civilian institutions.
Assassinations are also another set of method. If you have capable-enough intelligence agencies you can think about that particular option.
Historical Case Studies: North Korea’s intelligence agency in recent years used its powerful group of hackers to hack the computer systems of a major South Korean Bank. The famous Stuxnet virus, which is said to have paralyzed the nuclear research facilities in Iran, is believed to be used by Israel to delay the Iranian nuclear research program.
Israel has always used the assassination option to instill fear and confusion against Arab states.
Downsides: These kinds of operations can make your enemy hurt but not decapitated. So this may go on to anger him further making him come against with a more furious way.
So these were some of the pros and cons of using various tricks to hold on to your against your enemies. The Davids of 21-st century may need to find out their own creative initiatives to thwart the Goliaths of the 21-st century. I leave it to my readers to come up with their own conclusions and suggestions. So best of luck for the would-be Davids of this millennium.
If you are an independent-minded leader of a small nation and you do have a large amount of natural or other resources inside your borders and to top it off if you want to make your own rules which may not be approved by the superpowers of the World then you are in well … deep , deep trouble.
There are many ways that the superpower of the day may try to cut you down to your size; it may bribe some of the leading stakeholders in your nation like military, intelligence etc to topple you in an outright military coup (e.g. the Iranian military coup in 1953 and the Chilean military coup in 1973) , it may try to create divisions in your country among different ethnicities within your borders for breaking up your country into pieces that it hopes to control (e.g. South Sudan) , imposing crippling economic sanctions (e.g. sanctions on Iran , North Korea and other “rogue states”) or outright military interventions. (Iraq , Afghanistan and Libya )
Now the question is if you happen to be an independent minded leader ala David and facing the Goliath of the day in the modern-day superpower, what options do you have to protect and preserve your sovereignty and dignity. Following are few tricks that you could think about trying out. One fact about all these tricks is that all of them are historically proven and time -tested tactics.
Deterrence: Prevention is always better than cure. So if you are a relatively weak nation facing a bigger and much stronger enemy you should first think about this option. Historically deterrence meant that if you are threatened by a big enemy then you should try to reach out to the enemies of your enemy for help. As they say “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”.
If you are the modern day version of David 0.0 facing the might of the Superpower as a modern version of Goliath 0.0, then the modern day version of your sting 0.0 is: nukes. See how useful Einstein was to the would-be modern Davids of 21-st century. In fact nukes are the first things you should think about if you are even thinking about standing up to the mighty superpower.
So we have got two ways in terms of deterrence i.e. alliance with the enemy of your enemy or the possession of nuclear weapons.
Historical Case Studies: The tiny nation of Cuba managed to remain independent during the turbulent cold war period thanks to its alliance with the Soviet Union.
Pakistan, Israel and North Korea all have survived by adopting both the sub-options i.e. alliance and nukes. In case of Pakistan and North Korea it has been their alliances with China as well as their growing stockpiles of nukes that provide them security.
In case of Israel it is its “special relationship” with the USA and its 300-odd nukes that keep this country afloat.
Downsides: The nuclear weapons are very costly things and going for them might invite significant economic hardships which may threaten your economic well being.
Nuclear weapons may help your cause of deterring your enemy but it may make some of your neighbors nervous about your motives as we can see in the cases of Israel and Iran. These nervous neighbors of yours may turn against you and side with your enemy.
People power: Modern wars are said to be total wars where not only armies but whole societies are involved in the war effort. If you can motivate and include all the segments of your society then there is a very good chance that you can win.
You need to convince your society that this fight is not only necessary for your dignity but also for your very survival. Normally when a stronger nation invades it is depending upon its technical and organizational superiority over you. If your society is motivated and completely back you then you can face even the strongest of the powers since human power is still stronger than machines.
Historical Case Studies: Vietnam is the most classical example of involving your whole society in the war and winning not once, not twice but four times. The small nation of Vietnam which faced the colossal enemies i.e. the likes of France, USA or China managed to outmaneuver and survive against all. Let us look at the success of this tiny nation against the heaviest of odds.
1954- Vietnamese forces defeat the French in Dien Bien Phu to thwart any attempt to by the French to dictate its history.
1973- The last American forces leave the country after failing to defeat the Vietnamese in one of the most bloody and brutal conflicts in modern history.
1978 – Vietnamese forces overrun Cambodia to end the bloody regime of the “Khmer Rouge” i.e. one of World’s notorious mass-murdering regimes.
1979- Vietnamese beat back the Chinese military intervention into their country.
The Vietnamese record of constantly punching above their weight really speaks for itself.
Downsides: It is not so easy to motivate and put the whole of your society behind your war effort. As we all know human beings are generally individualistic and are ready to compromise when faced with a stronger power. You need to have a really strong and motivating leader to keep your people focused even among the most challenging of the times.
Rounding up your traitors: How often a nation is defeated not because of its soldiers but because of its traitors and collaborators who hamstrung it from within!!! It is always important to keep your camp clean from those who are willing to sell you for thirteen peaces of silver.
Historical Case Studies: Throughout recorded history nations have been defeated by the efforts of collaborators and traitors. The Israelis have used their intelligence agency Mossad over the years with great effort to cultivate potential traitors and collaborators among Arab populations. And now days the techniques of Mossad to cultivate potential traitors and collaborators are copied and pasted by all Western intelligence agencies in places like Iraq and Afghanistan.
One of the reasons that the West has been able to dominate the Western Asian region is because of its clever manipulation of the region’s collaborators.
If you are an independent-minded leader who is facing possible collaborators inside your war cabinet then it is always mandatory to find ways to neutralize those people. It is always a good practice to expose these people in public and let the public decide about the fates of these people who are willing to harm their own countries for material benefits.
Downsides: There is no downside in finishing off your traitors and collaborators.
Take the fight to the enemy: There are many ways through which you can take the fight directly to your enemy even though he happens to be much more powerful than you. Many of today’s conventional militaries tend to depend upon diverse computer-based systems for their day-today as well as real combat operations. If you can cultivate a crack team of hackers then you can very easily think about sabotaging the computer network systems of your enemy’s most important military and civilian institutions.
Assassinations are also another set of method. If you have capable-enough intelligence agencies you can think about that particular option.
Historical Case Studies: North Korea’s intelligence agency in recent years used its powerful group of hackers to hack the computer systems of a major South Korean Bank. The famous Stuxnet virus, which is said to have paralyzed the nuclear research facilities in Iran, is believed to be used by Israel to delay the Iranian nuclear research program.
Israel has always used the assassination option to instill fear and confusion against Arab states.
Downsides: These kinds of operations can make your enemy hurt but not decapitated. So this may go on to anger him further making him come against with a more furious way.
So these were some of the pros and cons of using various tricks to hold on to your against your enemies. The Davids of 21-st century may need to find out their own creative initiatives to thwart the Goliaths of the 21-st century. I leave it to my readers to come up with their own conclusions and suggestions. So best of luck for the would-be Davids of this millennium.
The Geronimo is dead, long live Geronimo (Published on the Hindu on 14-th May,2011)
This article has been (Published on the Hindu on 14-th May,2011)
The symbolism behind the assassination of Osama Bin Laden is bound to be noticed by any interested student of history. First of all, there is great symbolism behind the whole military operation codenamed after Geronimo; Geronimo was the legendary Native-American leader, who had the audacity to challenge the phenomenon of American exceptionalism in the 19-th century. This again tells us how much America is enamored in her own sense of historic symbolism, that it would like to bring back from dead the ghost of its 19-th century nemesis, to tackle its present enemies. In the imagination of 21-st century America, the world is still very much a battle ground between “us and them” or “good guys and bad guys” or to better put it “rednecks and Injuns”. America needs to kill her Geronimo-s in every century to assure herself of her self-declared mission on the World stage.
Another symbolism lies in the mainstream media’s complete avoidance of covering the death of Orlando Bosch in Miami, USA, just two days before the world heard President Obama declaring “gotcha” over Osama. Orlando masterminded a terrorist attack that destroyed a Cuban civilian air liner in 1976, killing 74 passengers on board, including women and children. The fortunate thing for Orlando was that he was fighting Fidel Castro, America’s then enemy no.1 in Latin America, on behalf of the USA. The difference between the death of Orlando and Osama lies in circumstances; whereas Orlando was let to die through completely natural courses, of course Bin Laden was taken out by the Navy SEAL-s as part of America’s normal, righteous justice. This symbolism tells us the fact that even if you happen to be a terrorist; you can die peacefully in your own home at your own bed at a ripe age as long as you happen to be the right kind of terrorist for the sole superpower.
Apart from symbolisms, we can certainly conclude one thing from the assassination of Bin Laden; there will be more America’s Public enemy no.1-s born in the future in the aftermath. The moment that President Obama choose to bring just retribution to Bin Laden is also pretty symbolic, it is a time when the sole superpower in the World is neck deep into debt, the unemployment numbers are soaring and the economic inequality is not showing any signs of coming to an end plus there has been a recent growing surge in the numbers of people in the United States, who believe that the current American president is a secret Muslim who faked his own birth certificate to become the most powerful man in the World. This is the time as a president when you need to show that you can be tough and decisive, and Mr. Obama just did that. Even if he is not able to provide jobs to his people at least he has offered them what they have been dying for since the last decade, the head (read the still to be disclosed footage of the head) of Osama, the 21-st century Geronimo.
We can safely conclude that from now on it is going to be a pattern i.e. any future American president who happens to face a tough situation at home will try to come up with his/her own Geronimo (or Osama) moment. And you can not have a Geronimo moment without a steady flow of would-be Geronimo-s. Already we can see analysts, experts and pundits talking about the new phase in the “War on terror”, possible future candidates as the future head of Al-Qaeda such as Al-Zawahiri, Al-Awlaki or Adam Gadhan being named, states as diverse as China and Iran are being considered as possible future enemies. The various military and intelligence agencies in the US are busy to justify their continuing longing for more budgetary allocations by presenting would-be dooms day scenarios. All this makes it clear; we can bet our bottom dollar that America will be busy in creating and hunting down her future versions of Geronimo-s. America needs to justify regularly to the world and to her own about her self-declared omnipotent exceptionalism. You can not do that without regularly inventing and then destroying those whom you consider as your opponents and enemies towards your ideas. There is no need of Superman if there is no Lex Luother. The Geronimo is dead, long live the Geronimo.
The symbolism behind the assassination of Osama Bin Laden is bound to be noticed by any interested student of history. First of all, there is great symbolism behind the whole military operation codenamed after Geronimo; Geronimo was the legendary Native-American leader, who had the audacity to challenge the phenomenon of American exceptionalism in the 19-th century. This again tells us how much America is enamored in her own sense of historic symbolism, that it would like to bring back from dead the ghost of its 19-th century nemesis, to tackle its present enemies. In the imagination of 21-st century America, the world is still very much a battle ground between “us and them” or “good guys and bad guys” or to better put it “rednecks and Injuns”. America needs to kill her Geronimo-s in every century to assure herself of her self-declared mission on the World stage.
Another symbolism lies in the mainstream media’s complete avoidance of covering the death of Orlando Bosch in Miami, USA, just two days before the world heard President Obama declaring “gotcha” over Osama. Orlando masterminded a terrorist attack that destroyed a Cuban civilian air liner in 1976, killing 74 passengers on board, including women and children. The fortunate thing for Orlando was that he was fighting Fidel Castro, America’s then enemy no.1 in Latin America, on behalf of the USA. The difference between the death of Orlando and Osama lies in circumstances; whereas Orlando was let to die through completely natural courses, of course Bin Laden was taken out by the Navy SEAL-s as part of America’s normal, righteous justice. This symbolism tells us the fact that even if you happen to be a terrorist; you can die peacefully in your own home at your own bed at a ripe age as long as you happen to be the right kind of terrorist for the sole superpower.
Apart from symbolisms, we can certainly conclude one thing from the assassination of Bin Laden; there will be more America’s Public enemy no.1-s born in the future in the aftermath. The moment that President Obama choose to bring just retribution to Bin Laden is also pretty symbolic, it is a time when the sole superpower in the World is neck deep into debt, the unemployment numbers are soaring and the economic inequality is not showing any signs of coming to an end plus there has been a recent growing surge in the numbers of people in the United States, who believe that the current American president is a secret Muslim who faked his own birth certificate to become the most powerful man in the World. This is the time as a president when you need to show that you can be tough and decisive, and Mr. Obama just did that. Even if he is not able to provide jobs to his people at least he has offered them what they have been dying for since the last decade, the head (read the still to be disclosed footage of the head) of Osama, the 21-st century Geronimo.
We can safely conclude that from now on it is going to be a pattern i.e. any future American president who happens to face a tough situation at home will try to come up with his/her own Geronimo (or Osama) moment. And you can not have a Geronimo moment without a steady flow of would-be Geronimo-s. Already we can see analysts, experts and pundits talking about the new phase in the “War on terror”, possible future candidates as the future head of Al-Qaeda such as Al-Zawahiri, Al-Awlaki or Adam Gadhan being named, states as diverse as China and Iran are being considered as possible future enemies. The various military and intelligence agencies in the US are busy to justify their continuing longing for more budgetary allocations by presenting would-be dooms day scenarios. All this makes it clear; we can bet our bottom dollar that America will be busy in creating and hunting down her future versions of Geronimo-s. America needs to justify regularly to the world and to her own about her self-declared omnipotent exceptionalism. You can not do that without regularly inventing and then destroying those whom you consider as your opponents and enemies towards your ideas. There is no need of Superman if there is no Lex Luother. The Geronimo is dead, long live the Geronimo.
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