The main fundamentals of the current situation in Sudan

The main fundamentals of the current situation I Sudan are

1.       The Khartoum ruling establishment would love to strengthen it’s position by creating a war-like situation and thus uniting the population behind it’s war efforts.

2.       The South Sudan government is struggling to hold together it’s ragtag army and an ambitious army general could mount a local initiative and thus change the whole equation.

3.       The third force in the Sudan conflict are the South-Sudan backed militias who have been fighting the Sudanese government for overthrowing of the government in Khartoum.

4.       The biggest source of problem between the two sides is the distribution of the oil money in a fare manner between the two parties. Most of the oil wells happen to be part of South Sudanese territory whereas the distribution pipelines which pour oil from South Sudan to the outside World, all culminate in the Sudanese territory of Port Sudan. So the question of transit-fee here is very crucial particularly for the government in Khartoum.

5.       None of the governments pose overwhelming power to destroy each other. In fact it is clear from recent clashes that both powers lack not only enough firepower to overwhelm each other but they also lack enough monitory power to outlast each other.

6.       Both the governments need to unite their people behind themselves considering that people in the respective countries have been suffering a lot ever since this conflict first started.

7.       The interests of the outside players are also very important to understand the nature of the conflict. The governments of Ethiopia and Kenya have been directly backing the South Sudanese government. The South Sudanese government is also considering the creation of a proposed oil pipeline from it’s territory to Lamu , a Kenyan port.

There is also much foreign interest in terms of countries like Israel, China and the USA to the current situation in these two countries.

Israel has been apparently willing to deport a considerable number of its ever-so-growing economic asylum seekers in the Southern Sudanese territory irrespective of their origins. So naturally as a country with less number of dependable allies in the African continent, the Israeli government was one of the most important of the countries to back the establishment of an independent South Sudanese state.

China also has an important stake in the region. Considering that it is the biggest consumer of Sudanese crude, China would always like to have an important say in what goes on between Khartoum and Juba.   

The main interest for the Chinese would be to ensure safe passage of Sudanese crude into the Chinese economy and they are willing to bring pressure on both the two disputing parties to prevent further tension.

The Americans would also have an interesting stake in the region since the Americans consider the government in Khartoum as not enough open-minded to the dictations of AFRICOM and thus they would like to maintain a strong amount of pressure upon the Sudanese government.

The wild card in this conflict could well be the fluid situation arising out of chaos after the fall of the Muammar Qaddafi regime in Libya and the loose situation with regards to the flow of arms in the region. Already the country of Mali has seen a rise in Islamic sentiments in it’s northern territory and with more clashes between the two Sudans, the Islamic elements who are always eager to fill these types of political vacuums, may decide to fill in the gaps that may arise out of the situation in Sudan.  

In the final analysis , one needs to mention that at present we can expect a continuous stalemate between the two parties since no one side posses enough resources to claim outright victory over the other and the outside pressure on both the countries for keeping the stalemate are considerable.

So we can expect one side to up the ante from time to time for securing concessions so we need to embrace for periodic upheavals in the overall situation.

Without the International community putting into place a relief mechanism to alleviate the causes of the parties it would be important to understand that this prolonged stalemate between the parties is an inevitable outcome here.

Random Thoughts On the global economy_Part1

Most glorious ideas and extraordinary inventions come into being during the time of existential crises. Human propensity to work at its best comes into fruition when the species cowers under the fear of extinction of the way of life which it holds most dear. New ideas and new horizons open themselves up before the human eye only at the crisis when the human existence finds the need for them.

The current global economic crisis is one such situation which calls for new approaches and new kinds of solutions. Before we think about possible solutions just let us have a look at how we arrive at our problems.

At the end of the Second World War, the all victorious allies came together in what is now known as the Bretton Woods conference and the bricks for the foundations of the current global economic order were laid.

The idea behind the global economic structure can be observed such as this ; the two wings of the Western civilization aka Europe and the United States were considered to be the primary consumers in the perennial economic dialectic of supply and demand and the rest i.e. the nations from Africa , Latin America and Asia were considered as the providers. Since economy is an ever changing game of demand and supply, the health of the global economy is thus dependent upon the social vagaries in the two wings of the Western civilization which constitutes roughly 15-20 per cent of the global population [1].

This is the model which would later come to be known as globalization.

That is why when USA goes into cold after playing with harmful habits like reckless financial speculation or when Europe catches flue because of bursts in real estate bubbles, the rest of the World needs to check their temperatures.

Since much of the production of casual and familiar goods in the Western countries have been outsourced to the meager wage countries , thus there are very few primary avenues left in the Western World other than enticing would be customers with proponents of cheap credit. Thus without the prospects of improvements in terms of job prospects in the Western hemisphere the only major form of consumption has been cheap credits and hopes of quick gratification.

We need to mention that this system run its course as long as it could have done however without viable means of repayment, this system had to come to an end as it did in 2008.

In order for the global economy to arise from the ashes of the globalization model thus the only plausible solution is for the diversification of the global economy so as to create domestic demand in the hitherto-providing nations.

Two of the Asian giants, India and China, can thus be said to be the natural candidates for shoring up the global domestic demand.

The unfortunate scenario for the rest of the World is that India as a democracy can seldom claim strong and decisive decision making as its best forte in her last six decades of history. Prioritization of resources also seems to elude the minds of Indian policymakers.

The current scenario whereby India tries to shore up the flagging fortunes of the European nations by offering a $10 Billion USD into the IMF coffers or India becoming the largest arms importer in the World hide the fact that India has to think about lifting her fuel subsidies which are much needed for its millions of poor citizens. The impact on the purchasing ability of the common Indian “aam aadmi” as a result could be significantly compromised.

Thus it leaves the job of the heavy lifting of global consumer demand on China which has a much sound leadership capable of taking tough decisions.

India_US_Iran new triangle

Abstract: The recent decisions by the Indian government to drastically reduce India’s existing energy trade with Iran may give birth to unforeseen repercussions for the future.

                         Possible repercussions of India’s souring relations with Iran

The recent decision by the Indian government to substantially reduce the existing energy trade with Iran may have had many possible reasons. Indeed many noted International affairs experts like Vijay Prashad believes this was India’s acquiescence towards overall US position in Iran. [1]

                   “The US has sought an alliance with India for the past decade with the aim of putting pressure on China, of balancing out its reliance upon Pakistan's geographic location, and of isolating Iran in the forums of the non-aligned world.”

                           And again he mentions the following in the same article [1].

                  “By many indications, India has accepted the broad policy orientation of the US on Iran, and to a lesser extent on Afghanistan. On China there is less harmony.”

Irrespective of the motives behind this position taken by the Indian government, it is important to understand what could be the possible repercussions behind this decision.

1.     The overwhelming majority of global oil trade and subsequent pricing of this is done through two markets a. New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) where oil is valued with reference to West Texas intermediate crude standards and b. London’s IPE where oil prices are referenced in respect to the Brent crudes produced in the North Sea.

2.      In both these two markets, the trade is done through futures trading whereby the buyer agrees to take delivery and the seller agrees to provide a fixed amount of oil at a pre-arranged price at a specified location.[2] Since futures trading systems are complex mechanisms this may enable volatility regarding oil prices.

3.     Now in both these two markets all the transactions are made in US dollars. Iran came up with the idea of its own Iranian oil trading market which started operating in this year march in Kish Island of Iran. The Iranian idea is to allow trading of oil in terms of a range of national currencies like Euro , Yen , Yuan and Rupee and the transactions would be done not in the future trading system but in the “on-the-spot” type of system whereby direct trading and fixing of prices between the buyer and seller can be done without the involvement of any possible third parties thereby reducing speculation ad volatility in the prices.[3]

Indeed there are many prominent experts who believe that the real bone of contention between Tehran and Washington has little to do with Iran’s nuclear program but Tehran’s decision to open its own oil trading system.

4.     Since we in India are now starting to look to other options instead of Iran when it comes to energy imports , it means that we would be doing more in terms of dollar-based transactions with regards to our oil purchases and thus we would be more open towards subsequent volatility in International oil markets.

5.     Considering our already substantial trade deficits and also considering that a large share of this comes with India’s burgeoning oil import bill, more exposure to International market price fluctuations of oil may not be necessarily good for our hopes of cutting our trade deficits in near and long term futures.

Had our leaders shown the foresightedness by continuing through our existing Iranian oil imports, we would have been able to take advantage of the situation and strike deals which may well have been beneficial for us like for example if we in exchange of Iranian oil could have been able to sell our substantial amount of surplus Wheat as well as help Iran in building infrastructure as well as other important aspects like aircraft spare parts. All these would have been beneficial to us without much inflating our already precarious trade imbalances.

6.     Another technical aspect of reducing oil imports from Iran has to do with the capacity of our refineries to handle non-Iranian crude. Iranian crude oil is considered to be a variety of light crude which can flow easily through the terminals of the refineries. Now our need to switch to non-Iranian crude could mean that we may need to remodel our existing refineries and this ensures that our overall input costs could further swell.

7.     The exposure to International market prices has already caused a price hike in India in the last month with further possibilities in short-term future. [4] [5] Irrespective of political ruckus behind this, one possible impact of any further hike in domestic petroleum prices would be to further tighten the purse strings of Indian consumers which could ensure overall reduced consumer demand. This is something the country can ill afford at this critical juncture of our economy when it is already suffering from lower rates of productivity.

8.      There are some talks regarding possible future issues involving insurance for Indian companies after the July 1 when European sanctions on insurance companies comes to effect with respect to the tankers containing oil from Iran. [6] This is where the benefit of the long-proposed overland energy pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan comes into play.

This pipeline if constructed would have reduced our dependence on overseas insurance cover for these kinds of emergency situations. The construction of a pipeline such as this one would also have provided much needed commercial boost for our acrimonious relations with Pakistan. Iran and Pakistan are willing to go ahead with their part on this pipeline and it is up to us to make our mind on this vital issue.

9.     Increasing economic interactions with the countries of Central Asia has been one of the key features of Indian foreign policy establishment of late. The Iranian port of Chah Bahar is one of the ports through which we are able to pursue our trade with some of the Central Asian countries. Our decision to reduce oil imports from Iran may jeopardize those crucial trade links with Central Asia.

10.                         Our past contacts with Iran had helped us considerably with regards to Afghanistan. Indeed during the Taliban reign of Afghanistan; Tehran was one of the very few foreign capitals with which we could have made contacts in terms of our existing ties with the then anti-Taliban northern alliance. We have already made substantial economic and infrastructure investments in Afghanistan in the past decade or so and in a post-US Afghanistan, the future of those investments of ours may very well be in uncertain terms considering now we have burnt sufficient amounts of bridges with Tehran. A realignment of Tehran and Islamabad on their common opposition to any continued presence of Western forces in that country is certainly not what our policymakers did expect in the first place.

11.                         It is without doubt that our policymakers had made the decision to reduce our imports of Iranian oil with certain long-term interests in mind. But this decision also gives us an image that when it comes to holding on to our commitments even under duress and compulsion, India could be fragile and malleable. This and all the other economic repercussions that have been discussed here are substantial when our leaders and policymakers make their next move with regards to Iran.

REFERENCES

[1] “India: the US doormat into Asia?” by Vijay Prashad published on AsiaTimes on Jun 19, 2012.

      [2] “Oil Markets explained” published on BBC on October 18, 2007.

               [3] “Iran Opens oil bourse – Harbinger of Trouble for New York and London” by John Daly published on OilPrice.com on July 18, 2011.

             [4] “Petrol bomb: Fuel price hike angers political parties” published on HIndustanTimes on May 23, 2012.

            [5] “Indian shares rise on hopes for fiscal measures” published on Business Standard on June 20, 2012.

            [6] “Insurance to stop Indian shippers handling Iran oil in July: sources” published on livemint.com on June 11, 2012.

The state of the American military mind

Abu Gharib in 2003. Fallujah and Haditha in 2005. American marines urinating on dead Taliban, burning copies of Quran and US gunmen massacring innocent civilians in 2012. These incidents are both disturbing and increasingly worthy of creating derision in the minds of many in America as well as across the globe.

A clear pattern can be clearly observed here. The pattern here is that a group if young US servicemen in spite of their rigorous training programs which mean to term them into disciplined and law-obeying young men, are not following what they are taught to and becoming involved in acts which can be easily categorized as derisive and dangerous to prestige and reputation of the United States all over the Muslim world.

                                                       
Belmont v/s Fishtown

To understand and find the exact reasons into why there is this spurt in the unfortunate and tragic events involving American servicemen who are otherwise noted for their discipline and valor we need to take a deep and long look at the specific strata of American society from which they come.

Charles Murray, a noted social commentator in the American affairs has pointed out in his latest book “Coming Apart” in vivid terms the growing economic and social inequality in the US. Charles Murray mainly points out that the growing economic inequality in the US has given rise to two separate economic classes in the US with almost oxymoronic social attitudes and quickly diverging lifestyles.

According to Charles Murray, the economically backward areas of US are the ones prone with more divorces, lack of social capital, a breakdown in family values, a spurt of single mothers, a bulge of social crimes and myriad other social issues.

As Murray has pointed out clearly in his book that the growing economic inequality in the USA, creating two different classes of peoples with increasingly divergent worldviews. Murray decides to divide the two classes into two superficial entities; one is Belmont which represents the richer elite strata of the society and then there is Fishtown or the comparatively poorer sections of American populace.

Belmont according to Murray has fewer divorces, out-of-wedlock children, fewer educational dropouts, fewer broken families and fewer drug addicts and fewer levels of indebtedness, home foreclosures and most importantly lesser number of violent crimes.

By Murray’s analysis Belmont and the social class i.e. the rich , upper-class that it represents not only does well over Fishtown in terms of wealth creation but it also does well in terms of fostering better human qualities amongst its people.

The status of American family has gone through a tremendous transformation whereby a majority of women under the age of 30 now give births to their children as single moms. [2] Undoubtedly it is Fish town than Belmont which leads in this phenomenon according to Murray. [3]

As a result many kids will be living under single parents with either mom or dad in the role of playing both parents’ part as well carrying the burden of being the only bread earner in the family. In most of the cases though it is the single mother who has to play the roles and responsibilities of both the parents while being the sole wedge earner in the nuclear family. [2]

Many prominent psychologists opine that  all of our important character traits generate from the subconscious section of human mind and two fundamental parts of human subconscious i.e. anima and animus actually play important parts in helping the child develop important character traits such as sympathy , love , responsibility and fighting spirit.

Now the anima is the aspect which is grown inside a Child’s subconscious mind from 0 to 6 years of age and this aspect is developed primarily by the influence of the mother. Anima helps a child grow qualities such as sympathy and love.  The aspect of Animus which helps a child build character traits of responsibility and fighting spirit is developed from the 6 to 12 years of a child and this particular quality is developed by the influence of father.

So by the science of psychology the biggest negative effect of children who come from single parents or broken families is that they do not sufficiently grow their anima and animus which in later years may prevent them from developing important character traits such as love , sympathy , taking challenge and taking responsibility for own actions.

Since Fishtown overwhelmingly leads Belmont when it comes to phenomenon such as divorces and broken marriages and single moms, it can be argued that Fishtown also leads Belmont when it comes to producing children without proper parenting i.e. children without sufficient amounts of Anima and Animus grown into them. This makes the children from Fishtown vulnerable to lacking important character traits such as love , sympathy , taking challenge and taking responsibility for their own actions etc.

Unfortunately it is Fishtown rather than Belmont which produces more prospective employees for what is probably the most important institution for projecting America’s image abroad i.e. the US military. [1] This deprives America to deploy her best talents in the military profession since it is Belmont which by far outshines any other social strata in the US when it comes to producing children with better abilities and talents.

Since the military service in the US is voluntary we can argue that it is the economic problems that lead to many from Fish town to seek employment in what is probably the last port of call for them in hard economic times i.e. the American military. [1]

This suggests that the US military may be burdened with the fact that a considerable amount of its potential recruits may be coming from a social strata like Fish town with not sufficient amount of social capital.

                                               
The phenomenon of quick gratification

Another prevailing situation in the USA is that abundance of items which bring quick gratification and pleasure. Now day’s kids from a very early age have access to various electronic gadgets and mobile phones of all different hues, providing a very quick gratification.

As the child grows up in age they tend to develop a tendency to find out quick and simple solutions to problems in general and at times at very small inconveniences.  This habit can tend kids to treat problems in a very simplistic manner and find out solutions also in a similar way. This character trait can be attributed to the habit of a child to satisfy him with objects of quick gratification from his child hood.

The absence of anima and animus also could be attributed to a child’s inability to find other than simplistic and temporary solutions.

In an wartime scenario, for a young man who does not possess sufficient amounts of anima and animus due to a troubled childhood and who is prone to seek simplistic solutions to his problems may find himself taking the painful but sudden and abrupt decisions which ultimately leads to tragic incidents such as Abu Gharib , Fallujah and Kandahar.

                                                                  
Lack of deterrence

Another significant factor which could be considered as vital in addition to the above two reasons is the reluctance of the American military authorities to hand down tough sentences to servicemen found guilty of disturbing acts.

Normally after a tragic incidence a familiar ritual can b observed whereby senior American officials apologize, an investigation commission is formed, and the families of unfortunate victims are compensated, media claims “these are works of a few rotten apples and we are not like these” and then the perpetrators of the act gets the maximum penalty of being discharged from the service.

In a country like the USA which still boasts of carrying out most number of death penalties is yet to hand down a single capital punishment to any perpetrators of these tragic acts thereby creating an impression to some of these would-be perpetrators of these terrible acts that they would at most be discharged from the service.

David P Goldman aka Spengler has pointed out that there tends to be strong disincentives for crime once the state comes with rigorous penalties for those who commit crimes. [4]

This is a very interesting dilemma for the American policymakers. The mindsets which lead people to commit horrible tragedies at places like Kandahar and Fallujah, do not take a leave when they come back home. If America does not come up with a strong deterrence to the serious disciplinary issues which are exemplified by her soldiers committing tragic and horrible crimes, there may be unforeseen and unpredictable consequences.

As Ron Unz points out citing a recent New York Times story described the morale-building visit of Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta to our forces in Afghanistan and noted that all American troops had been required to surrender their weapons before attending his speech and none were allowed to remain armed in his vicinity. [5]

Robert Fisk also points out that the top US commander in Afghanistan Gen. John Allen had to appeal to his troops for being calm and not act hastily for revenge after news spread out about the death of two American servicemen following the Quran burning riots in Afghanistan in early, 2012. [6]

These are probably the two most serious examples of breakdown of discipline in the ranks of American military in a long time. This trend is disturbing to say the least since after all Timothy McVeigh was also a psychologically troubled veteran.

                                                                     
References

[1] “Youths in Rural U.S. Are Drawn To Military” by Ann Scott Tyson published in “The Washington Post” on Friday, November 4, 2005 (URL: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/03/AR2005110302528.html)

[2] “For Women under 30, Most Births Occur Outside Marriage” by JASON DePARLE and SABRINA TAVERNISE published in “The New York Times” on February 7, 2012 (URL : http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/18/us/for-women-under-30-most-births-occur-outside-marriage.html?_r=3&pagewanted=all)

[3] “Tramps like Them: Charles Murray Examines the White Working Class in ‘Coming Apart’” by Nicholas Confessore published in “The New York Times” on February 10, 2012 (URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/12/books/review/charles-murray-examines-the-white-working-class-in-coming-apart.html?pagewanted=all)

[4] “What would James Q Wilson tell Mexico?” by Spengler published in “Asia Times” on March 20, 2012 (URL: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/NC20Dj02.html)

[5] “China’s rise, America’s fall” by Ron Unz published in “The American Conservative” on April 18, 2012 (URL: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/blog/chinas-rise-americas-fall/)

[6] “Madness is not the reason for this Massacre” by Robert Fisk published in “The Independent” on March 17, 2012 (URL: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-madness-is-not-the-reason-for-this-massacre-7575737.html?origin=internalSearch)

 

The state of the American military mind

Tragic incidents involving US servicemen in war zones like Iraq and Afghanistan have become a not-too infrequent affair now days. Incidents from the torturing scenes of Abu Gharib to the Kandahar massacre have dogged the imaginations of the World conscious in the process in the process of shattering the reputation of American servicemen. A lot of soul searching has gone into the process with analysts from all hues and colors have chipped in with their views which include from stress related disorder due overworking to family problems. The cause behind the violent acts involving American service men let us try to have a look at the status of American family. The status of American family has gone through a tremendous transformation whereby a majority of women under the age of 30 now give births to their children as single moms. As a result many kids will be living under single parents with either mom or dad in the role of playing both parents’ part as well carrying the burden of being the only bread earner in the family. Many prominent psychologists opine that all of our important character traits generate from the subconscious section of human mind and two fundamental parts of human subconscious i.e. anima and animus actually play important parts in helping the child develop important character traits such as sympathy , love , responsibility and fighting spirit. Now the anima is the aspect which is grown inside a Child’s subconscious mind from 0 to 6 years of age and this aspect is developed primarily by the influence of the mother. Anima helps a child grow qualities such as sympathy and love. The aspect of Animus which helps a child build character traits of responsibility and fighting spirit is developed from the 6 to 12 years of a child and this particular quality is developed by the influence of father. So by the science of psychology the biggest negative effect of children who come from single parents or broken families is that they do not sufficiently grow their anima and animus which in later years may prevent them from developing important character traits such as love , sympathy , taking challenge and taking responsibility for own actions. Another prevailing situation in the USA is that abundance of items which bring quick gratification and pleasure. Now day’s kids from a very early age have access to various electronic gadgets and mobile phones of all different hues, providing a very quick gratification. As the child grows up in age they tend to develop a tendency to find out quick and simple solutions to problems in general and at times at very small inconveniences. This habit can tend kids to treat problems in a very simplistic manner and find out solutions also in a similar way. This character trait can be attributed to the habit of a child to satisfy himself with objects of quick gratification from his child hood. The absence of anima and animus also could be attributed to a child’s inability to find other than simplistic and temporary solutions. In an wartime scenario, for a young man who does not possess sufficient amounts of anima and animus due to a troubled childhood and who is prone to seek simplistic solutions to his problems may find himself taking the painful but sudden and abrupt decisions which ultimately leads to tragic incidents such as Abu Gharib , Fallujah and Kandahar. Another significant factor which could be considered as vital in addition to the above two reasons is the reluctance of the American military authorities to hand down tough sentences to servicemen found guilty of disturbing acts. Normally after a tragic incidence a familiar ritual can b observed whereby senior American officials apologize, an investigation commission is formed, and the families of unfortunate victims are compensated, media claims “these are works of a few rotten apples and we are not like these” and then the perpetrators of the act gets the maximum penalty of being discharged from the service. In a country like the USA which still boasts of carrying out most number of death penalties is yet to hand down a single capital punishment to any perpetrators of these tragic acts thereby creating an impression to some of these would-be perpetrators of these terrible acts that they would at most be discharged from the service. This is a very interesting dilemma for the Americans. The mindsets which lead people to commit horrible tragedies at places like Kandahar and Fallujah, do not leave them when they come back home. After all Timothy McVeigh was also a psychologically troubled veteran also.

From passion to paranoia

I start this piece with a completely fictional conversation between Rajat Gupta, the fallen ex-Chairman of McKinsey and Deepak Raheja, the alleged dishonest trader held in China by the Chinese authorities.
Rajat: “Hello is it Mr. Deepak Raheja, that I am speaking to”?
Deepak: “Yes, speaking.”
Rajat: “Hi Deepak, this is Rajat Gupta calling from my jail cell in New York”.
Deepak: “Mr. Gupta, you were my hero in the childhood. I have grown up willing to become a global figure like you. Tell me how may I help you Sir?”
Rajat: “I need your urgent help, Deepak.” (With a very anxious voice)
Deepak: “Yes Sir, I am at your service. Tell me how I may help you.”
Rajat:”I have come to know that both you and I have been given more or less the same charge. Then I can see you have been getting a hero’s treatment in the Indian media whereas no one from the same media even bothered to talk with me since the day charges were brought against me. Please tell me what you did right and what my fault is.”
Deepak (with a sorry voice): “Sir, it is not at your entire fault. Actually you were caught at the wrong time, at wrong place.”
Rajat: “How?”
Deepak: “Sir, you were caught in America and I was caught in China. Sir you are an extremely intelligent person, you can understand so why both of us have been given different types of coverage in our media, Sir”

The recent reaction shown by Indian media establishment towards the unfortunate case of two Indian businessmen and a diplomat landing in troubled waters in China , can be thus termed only the same , from sensational to passionate and from passionate to paranoid.

Those who have observed the coverage of the Indian media over the years will notice that this is not something unique or new on the part of Indian media. One need to go back just four years to early 2008 when some controversial umpiring decisions involving a game of cricket between India and Australia were covered in the Indian media as if India’s honor and pride depended was wounded and a quick retribution was required.

At that time, the International Cricket Council, a governing body which runs the game, had to drop the umpire to vindicate Indian grievances. However regarding this particular incident here, one needs to hold its judgment till one gets to know the whole issue in detail after relevant legal procedures has been completed in China.

Considering the delicate relationship between India and China one would have expected Indian media to handle this matter with caution until all the legal issues have been resolved. One would have expected that Indian media would take a more mature position on this case, as befitting a rising and mature democracy, quite similar to the posture taken some months back in the illustrious case of Rajat Gupta.

Some months back, Rajat Gupta, ex-McKinsey head and a well-known success story from the proverbial “talented and aspiring Indian middle-class”, was accused of being involved in the financial wrongdoing in the USA. The reaction in the Indian media was however muted and cautious to say the least.

The reaction of the Indian consulate in China was also uncharacteristically hasty to call Indian businessmen to shun the Yiwu city for doing business. One needs to recall that very recently we witnessed the gruesome murder of an Indian student in UK but interestingly at that time the Indian diplomatic envoy in London did not ask Indian students to shun UK as a preferred destination for studying.

If the residents of the Yiwu city would have had known about the murder of the Indian student and the reaction of the official Indian media and the diplomatic establishment to this case , they probably would be asking what exactly did the UK authorities did to get away without getting an advisory such as the one they got ?
History have taught us that when two rising powers, who also happen to be competing for the same spot , clash on some issue , sparks of passion could be seen.

This is natural for two competitors, sports psychologists tell us. Competitive attitude is by nature to create antagonism between the competitors, but those passions do not last beyond competition.

Competitive passion however should never be allowed to become the birth pangs of paranoia. Paranoia makes the affected lose his rational behavior and act in ways which may prove to be harmful to him and the rest.

Harakiri nation

Hara-kiri nation
The start of the current century brought the news that Japan has posted its first ever trade deficit in more than two decades. The start of this century is markedly different from the start Japan saw in the beginning of the last century when Japan, a small Island had emerged victorious against the mighty Czarist Empire.

The Japan in the early 20-th century happened to be the most sought after country in Asia. Anti-colonial activists for example the likes of Ras Behari Bose and Subhash Chandra Bose travelled from India to Japan in order to learn from Japan the tricks that it had mastered. Japan was seen as the model upon which Asian countries, long subdued under the yoke of European colonialism, wanted to follow for achieving their dreams of becoming sovereign nations.

How far are those days of the last century to our times!!! Now Japan instead of being a model is considered as a shadow of it’s own self. The super-fast bullet trains of Japanese economic growth seemed to have been over-shadowed by those in China and India. Japan as a society is growing older very fast and the Japanese government seemed to be present in a self-imposed exile from important international events for the last six decades.

So what happened to the Japanese model after all? Why hallows of the Japanese model faded after all?

To discuss all these we need to understand the historical processes that made Japan rise as the empire of the rising sun at the beginning of the last century and then fall into sunset at the end of it.

According to historian Neil Ferguson, Japan was the first amongst the nations of the East to crack the codes of what enabled the West to make progress and modernization. The process of Westernization or modernization can be classified into two periods. First among them was the Meiji restoration period from 1868 to1945 and the post-war Japanese republic period from 1945 till our times.

The Meiji restoration period was the first of the modernization period. The Japanese elites understood the technological and military backwardness of their country when commodore Perry, a naval officer of US army had landed in Japan in 1854. This had ended a more than two-century old period of national seclusion for Japan.

The arrival of a foreign navy at Japan alerted the Japanese elites about the backwardness of themselves. To make up for their losses they had to modernize quickly and be strong so as to prevent their nation being enlisted in the list of the European colonies.

This was the beginning of the Meiji restoration period. In the previous centuries the Japanese emperor had become a puppet at the hands of some of the Tokugawa Shogunate overlords now he was restored into absolute power by the rivals of the Tokugawa clan. Japan from 1868 became an absolute monarchy whereby the empire had become the symbol of Japanese power. This was the period of Japanese empire.

Though the Japanese lagged behind their European counterparts in terms of technological progress but they had one great quality. They could learn very fast as well as apply and adopt whatever they learnt very quickly. The Japanese invited Western technocrats and began to reorient their institutions into Western styles and remold their thoughts by adopting Westernized discourses. The qualities of quick learning and quick adaptation enabled the Japanese to become one of the strongest powers in the World whose unabated rise continued till the end of the Second World War.

The Japan during the Meiji restoration period was the nation which had become a model for the rest of the Asian intellectuals and would-be freedom fighters. This followed from Japan’s rapid economic and industrial progress in the late 19-th and early 20-th century and the successful military campaigns against the Czarist Empire.

Things however began to change following Japan’s conduct in Korea and China and then in the South-East Asian nations later on. The Japanese elite of the time considered the ever-expanding Western empires as the ideal form of socio-economic system and strived to achieve a Japanese colonial realm at the expense of their fellow Asians in Korea, China and rest of the South-East Asia. The attitude of the Japanese towards their newly conquered people was not too dissimilar from their erstwhile Western colonizers.

The mass-killing of Chinese civilians in Nanjing in the 1930-s, the subsequent inhuman medical experiments that some of the Japanese scientists perpetrated upon their conquered Asian populace as well as forcing many Chinese and Korean women to become “comfort women” for the Japanese military men during the 1930-s did not help the image of Japan in the eyes of rest of Asia. Although these gruesome events did not stop freedom fighters from India and elsewhere in Asia to seek Japanese aid in their prospective freedom struggles against their European colonizers, however by the end of the Second World War the Japanese had destroyed the goodwill and warmth that fellow Asians in places like Korea, China and Indo-China used to feel for Japan.

The end of the Second World War and the subsequent military occupation of Japan by American forces, forced the leaders of Japan to embark upon their second wave of Westernization.

Unlike the previous Meiji restoration period however, this particular period of Westernization was something that the Japanese post-war leadership had to accept since they had very little choice to do anything else.

Their home Islands were all occupied by a foreign army and their emperor - the very symbol of Japan was also a prisoner at the hands of that very same foreign army and two of its biggest cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki lied in ruins. Japan had to adopt the conditions the victors were imposing on it. Thus began the second period of Japanese Westernization.

This was the period when Japan after initial years of hard work and reconstruction started to grow significantly in the end of the 1960-s and early 1970-s. This period is marked by rapid advances in technological advances and giant leaps made in terms of industrial and commercial automation in Japan. The rapid progress that Japan made once again started to make others consider seriously the economic growth model of Japan. When leaders of South Korea , China and the rest of South-East Asia decided to adopt the ways of economic modernization it was the Japan of 1970-s which was their ideal.

But like the previous phase of Westernization, this later phase also came to an abrupt end in terms of prosperity and hope for Japan. From the early 1990-s , the Japanese population growth rate had slowed down considerably thereby ensuring an ageing population and increased government burden to provide health care and support to this rapidly ageing populations. The lack of growth in terms of population ensured a fall in domestic demand which resulted in a prolonged period of stagnation for the Japanese economy.

Meanwhile due to their cheap labor advantages, the economies of first South Korea and then the South-East Asian countries like Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong etc began to rival Japan in terms of economic growth. They were quickly joined by China, the biggest and perhaps the most significant nation in the whole of North Asia. With this rising competition at abroad and a sluggish economy at home , Japan’s rising sun began to lose some of its brightness and as years went on , it ultimately passed onto decline.

During this second Westernization period, the Japanese nation as if took a self-imposed exile from the International events. When it came to important events like the cold war and the conflicts in Vietnam and Korea and in West Asia, Japan stayed on the margins depending upon others to ensure her objectives were met.

With a rapidly declining population and a stagnant economy Japan at the beginning of the 21-st century looks to have lost all the luster, and admiration, it had shown at the beginning of the previous century. The future for Japan is seemingly can be in two ways, either turning into another self-imposed long break from history as it has done so often in its past or slowly but surely turning into oblivion as an unique and distinct civilization.

Japanese society also has been showing rapid signs of decay. Even though Japan is one of the most advanced countries in the World, it is one of the leaders when it comes to suicides in the industrial World. It seems ironical that though the Japanese discarded their ancient institution of Samurai at the beginning of the last century in order to facilitate their modernization and Westernization, they still are holding to the most dramatic of the Samurai tradition i.e. the Hara-kiri. Will the land of the rising sun end this current phase of history as the Hara-kiri nation?


An Image of its idol

The most common pattern that can be traced from the two previous periods of Japanese modernizations is a yawning lack of customization on the part of Japanese elites for choosing a particular socio-economic system for their nation. In the early 19-th century Japan choose the model of rapid Westernization. The model of the modern European nation-states having large overseas colonies and interests was the ideal for the Japanese modernizing elite.

It was this attitude that the Japanese elite looked upon their fellow Asian brethren in the places like Korea, China and elsewhere as the colonial European overlords saw them. This was the same European attitude which had led to many inhuman tragedies perpetrated upon the Asian colonial subjects by their Western overlords. It was only inevitable that the same European attitudes towards their colonial subjects adopted by the Japanese elite would lead to the horrors of Nanjing and the plight of the countless “comfort women” in Asia.

Ironically the wholesale Westernization as adopted by the Japanese did not uplift their overall status in the eyes of their Western counterparts. When President Truman decided to test the horrors of the atomic bombs he choose two Japanese cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki not Rome or Berlin , two masterpieces of the Western civilization. So in the end, despite their Westernization efforts for more than half a century, Japan had to contend with the fact that to the perception of the Western statesmen, the status of the Japanese was not too dissimilar from those of the other Asians whom the Japanese used for their medical experiments during the war.

The Japanese post-World War leaders derived some other conclusions from all these. They thought they had adopted wrong aspects of Western society and they went on wholeheartedly adopting what they considered right aspects of Western society i.e. rapid individualization, technological progress and free market capitalism.

Like the previous model of imperialism, this current Western model also ensured progress for Japan till a certain time in history. But alike the previous model, the perils of the current model also has caught up with Japan and currently leading it to decline and stagnation that is on view for the last two decades.

Japan’s struggles with modernization and progress can be compared with that of China. The Chinese also adopted a non-Chinese philosophy i.e. Marxism as their governing principle but the Chinese leadership never forgot the importance of making customized changes to their system which would make it suitable considering the unique culture and history of the Chinese society. Mao Ze-dong did not imitate Stalin when he talked about “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and Deng-Xiao-Ping did not imitate the masters of Leis faire economics when he talked about “It doesn't matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice.”

Customization did work wonders for China. China was spared the inevitable chaos and confusion at the fall of USSR and it was China which emerged from the ashes of economic devastation following the economic crisis in 2008.

China could manage to come out of these crises since the Chinese leadership was aware of the pitfalls of their adopted models and made sure that they customize their models according to the norms of their society.

This is something that the Japanese missed out to do. To them it was the model itself which was the most important and thus with their initial successes they were oblivious about the pitfalls of their ideal model.

The time for adoption is however running out for Japan to make amends to their model. But without making changes to their existing system, Japan risks oblivion from the pages of history.

There is historical precedence of a country changing its course. Turkey which has been hitherto in the pro-Western camp has started an independent course for itself following the election of the Justice and Development Party in the new millennium. Japan itself took a decision to change its course following the visit of commodore Perry in 1854.

Will the current Japanese leadership pay heed to the calls of history or will it continue its current journey towards further irrelevance and oblivion?


References

1. Daniel Gros. “The Japan Myth.” In Project Syndicate, 2011-01-06. (Online Source : http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/gros18/English)
2. E B R Desapriya*†, N Iwase*. “New trends in suicide in Japan” In Injury Prevention 2003; Page - 284–287 (Online Source : http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1730993/pdf/v009p00284a.pdf)
3. XIA Liping. “The Trends of Japan's Economy And Foreign Policy” In Shanghai Institute for International Strategic Studies. (Online Source : http://www.ndu.edu/inss/symposia/pacific99/liping.html)
4. Kevin Rudd. “Tomorrow’s Pax Pacifica” In Project Syndicate 2012. (Online Source : http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rudd1/English)
5. Pierre Buhler. “The Shrinking North” In Project Syndicate 2011. (Online Source : http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/buhler4/English)

The emptiness engulfing the World

This time last year all of us were holding our heart and hoping for a better future. It was the time of Arab spring.

After being decades under the yoke of domestic tyranny, the people in the Arab World were revolting finally and this time without any backing from any one from outside. This will be the beginning of a better tomorrow as we thought.

The beginning of this year is completely different from the previous year. The hopes of tremendous progress of previous year has already started giving in to the cold and hard reality that it takes decades sometimes centuries to bear fruit when it comes to revolutions and change.

When it comes to the beginning of the current year instead of the hope in progress we will be lucky if we do not end up digressing from even the very low-standards of morality that human being has managed to achieve for itself in its time in this planet.

The region of West Asia which showed all the promises last year is back to its usual sordid and grim reality.

We started the year with murder of a nuclear scientist in Iran. More than the murder what was shocking was the reaction from the global community about this tragedy.

A nuclear scientist who is murdered because of a political issue and the reaction of the global community is strangely muted to say the least.

A World where people look other way when some of its best minds are taken away is not the best to hope for progress.

If collective silence about the murder of an intellectual was bad enough what was more distressing was the silence amongst the global conscience over the consistent drum beats over calls for economic sanctions and surgical military strikes against Iran.

The elections that will determine who will be the “leader of the free World” always brings up colorful and creative staff. This year will not be any exception.

Those who have seen the movie “Apocalypto” will be familiar with the phenomenon of ancient predecessors of today’s native-Americans sacrificing the heart of innocent human beings to please their Gods.

It is really scary to see the contenders, one of whom would be elected “the leader of free World” later this year, so easily calling for crippling sanctions which will probably go on to make Iranian children starve.

The commentators whose job is to look and analyze the World events, assures us that it is just election ploy. The people need to see a tough “leader of the Free World.”

The kind of compassion that one assumes is inevitable from this modernized humanity is seemingly in short supply. This is the time when everyone likes to feel good by predicting how their enemy’s children will starve to death.

A famous American commentator recently said on live radio that “I dislike Rumi, I dislike Hafez, I dislike Saadi and I will not give a damn even if they are lost forever to posterity.” The gentleman was talking about how introducing western style modern education to girls in Iran would lead to Iran having less and less babies and complete depopulation within the next century. He was gleefully predicting how no one would speak Persian within a century.

The World could have ignored if that kind of hatred and bloodlust was only limited to odd commentator in “the strongest ever power on human history”. But alas only if things were that simple.

If some rational being would have come from outside this solar system to our earth and if he would have hard the cries of “bomb, bomb, bomb Iran……” and the tremendous ovations that these cries receive, he would probably believe that our civilization has not moved much beyond what it used to be during the time of Aztecs.

This is a World increasingly without its bearings. When “the leader of the free World” takes pride in his annual address to nation by giving approximated counts of how many men his unmanned drones have turned into ash and vapor , then the World should be afraid and concerned.

There is an old saying that amidst pessimism lay the flickers of hope. But where is the hope in today’s World which seem to be celebrating the macabre joys of death and destruction more than it values the

Random thoughts on the latest Rushdie incident

Random thoughts on the latest Rushdie incident

Ever since the latest round of news surrounding Salman Rushdie has come into news, a peculiar idiosyncratic ritual can be seen on the part of some members of Indian intelligentsia. This can be categorized as selective fellow-filling on the part of those very members of our intelligentsia.

Incidents like the recent one involving Salman Rushdie gives the Indian intelligentsia an opportunity to prove to the common people their credentials for being representatives of a freedom-loving and creativity-cherishing society. This gives them the opportunity to show their sympathies for someone who resembles their lifestyles and way of life. This is an expression of sentimental-fellow feeling on the part of these members of our intelligentsia.

The World in these days is watching a lot of tragic and sad events which call for the attention of all of us who are concerned about the future prospects of humanity. In my view these events require a strong position-taking for all those who are concerned about the current situation of humanity.

The recent murder of the Iranian nuclear scientist Ahmadi-Roshan is condemnable for the fact that leaving politics aside this was an attack against an individual who was doing scientific research which could have led to the betterment of people. This was a deliberate attack to target the intellectual talent of a country.

All of us have criticized the incident of the destruction of the Bamian Buddhas. We called the perpetrators backward, inward-looking people who do not understand the benefits of art and culture. In my view this killing of the nuclear scientist in Iran has also need to be seen in the same light.

This killing is attempted to deprive a people the knowledge and know-how to do scientific research. This is just to ensure that the people remain blunt and stupid as the attackers would probably want the Iranian people to become so.

Some days back I heard a American radio talk show whereby a very prominent American commentator was discussing with glee about how the western-educated, modernized Iranian urban female population have stopped producing enough babies and he predicted within a century there will be no one speaking Persian in the World. I was perplexed and shocked to hear him enjoying the prospects of a millennium-old language being extinguished forever. He went on cheering live on air, “I dislike Rumi, I dislike Hafez and I do not care if they vanish from the collective minds of humanity.”

I still cannot believe those words. I mean where we are going as humanity when we can relish about the prospects of annihilation of a language which has given this World so much.

There were more things to feel horrified about the future prospects of our humanity. Next few days brought the disgusting pictures of American marines answering nature’s call, on dead human beings.

Yesterday, an American marine pleaded guilty in the heinous murders of an innocent family in Haditha , Iraq and what was shocking that the court just gave him three months in prison.

This is not only shocking but a real cause of concern if we try to analyze the inherent pattern in these two events. We have a man accepting in public that he was responsible for the murdering of innocent people and then the court of law just giving him so light a sentence.

To me if this man goes out of the court after three months and murders some more people, you have to blame the judge who let him get away with murder. No wonder some of the friends of that man was busy celebrating relieving themselves on the dead bodies of fellow human beings. After all they know that if their counterparts can get away after making the bodies of some innocent people lifeless, surely they will get away with dishonoring those very same lifeless bodies.

The last event that came to my notice was the lucid remark by a very famous American television commentator about how a certain American presidential contender who is known to posterity as a rich and powerful corporate guy ; could use the Golden temple at Amritsar as one of his holiday luxury suits.

This to my mind is not only a show of a lack of sensitivity for the sentiments of people but it is a far greater malice.

It is just yet another symptom of a mindset whereby a person thinks that if he is rich and famous then for him everything is up for grabs.

This is the most significant thing that all the thoughtful people in this World should be really concerned of.

Our World is going through an intellectual and identity crisis. The mindset whereby people feel indifferent to natural norms like the revulsion in the killing of innocents and desecration of dead bodies is taking over more and more innocent hearts and minds. This mindset considers everything as material terms. This mindset considers itself superior to all the rest and is completely indifferent to whatever happens to the rest of the unfortunate people whom it considers as “insignificant and collateral”. To this mindset there is very little value for other people’s feelings, sensitivities or their lives.

The World will be moving to an uncertain territory in terms of intellectual and for that matter any kind of progress if this mindset continues to march on with its macabre dance of death and destruction.

There is a moral responsibility on the parts of thinking peoples all over the World to speak out loudly against the further spread of this mindset. This is much bigger than affronting the rights of free speech of a single celebrity individual.

If today’s Indian intelligentsia is selective in showing concern to one of his own and completely silent on the spread of this marauding exceptional mindset that I have been warning now, it will be too late for them when this mindset turns against them.

Selective judgment from the intelligentsia of a country is the most sure and most short route towards intellectual irrelevance in the present and complete oblivion for posterity.

The death of a scientist

The death of a scientist


Amongst the intellectuals of the World, scientists are the most sought after people as per as the World powers are concerned.

Philosophers and poets are never on the good books of the World powers. They may spread dangerous ideas weakening the power base of the powers that be.
Scientists in comparison are very different. These are the people who without thinking about their personal desires, work tirelessly to open up new frontiers of knowledge.

To the rulers and statesmen, the scientists are like the magicians who can always come up with a new rabbit from their hats, in this case a glorious invention which can be either a great weapon to install fear into the hearts of their enemies or awesome gadgets to keep their always unruly people busy with trivial pursuits of kernel pleasure.

That is the reason that even scientists who may have cooperated with the erstwhile enemies, become highly admired and respected amongst the ruling classes of the victors. The end of World War-II saw a great hunt for Nazi rocket scientists, possession of whom was considered a great advantage in the cold war by either side.
Not all scientists enjoy same sort of luck though.

Indeed to the great powers, if some scientists can be the most sought after commodities during the war, at the same times those very same scientists, who are other side of the fence, could be considered as great enemy assets worthy of destruction alike any other strategic piece of infrastructure.

The death of a scientist thus becomes so paramount for the powers of the World.

The recent case of the murder of the Iranian nuclear scientist has to be seen in this context.

The West in general and America in particular are always fond of inviting and exploiting the best brains from the developing World i.e. the East.

The same scientists become the targets of murders and assassinations once these scientists decide to work for their own lands.

The pursuit of knowledge is great as long as the pursuers i.e. the scientists happen to be on the right side of the fences.

The pursuit of knowledge is thus acceptable only as per as it is done for the right side in question.

The pursuit of knowledge by the other side is considered a threat to the “peace and security of the International community”.

In the end, it is humanity which suffers most when some of its best minds are destroyed. The human urge to dominate and control thus again vanquishes the human quest for knowledge and intrigue.

One fortunate thing though, however cruel and inhuman we are, we humans will always value the pursuers of knowledge more than the destroyers of humanity’s best minds.

After all who knows the name of the Roman soldier today who decapitated Archimedes? Who cares about the executioners of Lavoisier in this century?

I say this to the grieving family of the murdered Iranian scientist, “Your son today, joined the ranks of those great minds of yesteryear, who died while fighting to expand the boundaries of knowledge. The bones of your son’s executioners will grind to the dust of infamy and oblivion. History will ensure that.”