As the year 2011 slowly cements its place into history, this is an attempt on the part of this writer to analyze some of the most important moments and events of this tumultuous year.
A year of protests and revolutions
This has been a year of protests and revolutions. This year will probably be considered as the “year of misfortune and tumult” by establishments all over the World. People all over the World have risen up against their establishments. The question is why so many people have been so much angry against their establishments at the same time? Is it all because of the spread of social networks? Or is it the overbearing economic inequality that has enabled these protests? Or is it the early success of the protestors in Tunisia and Egypt that gave hope to the protestors in European capitals or the occupiers in the United States? One thing is certain here. The people who have been protesting on the streets whether they are in New York or Cairo do not trust those who are in power.
What is curious is that the distrust of the authorities on the part of their populations is somewhat of a universal nature. Whether it is the occupiers in the Wall Street or those protesting in Libya or those rioting on the streets of London, Athens and Rome have a striking similarity. None of them trust their establishments whether they are democratic or authoritarian in nature. Should all these be attributed to the economic disparities that are widely prevalent in both Europe, large parts of West, East and Southern Asia as well as in America?
Most of these protests that we have seen are from the urbanized populations. Although it does not mean that the rural populations have been happy with their establishments but what is clear here is that the urbanized people in most Western and Arab capitals have lost faith in the systems that nurture these economic inequalities.
Now historically people come on the street and protest in a spontaneous way like they have been doing throughout this year for two reasons. First of all, people would come to the streets when they have lost hope that the establishment, whether it is authoritarian or democratic in nature, can improve their condition. Secondly and this is the probably the most important reason of all , if the populations are assured that by going on to the streets and protesting will help them overthrow their establishments and change their futures , surely they will do so.
One pattern is also very much clear from these popular movements. Those movements who have specific goals and objectives and those movements which are carried out by decisive and organized parties, have got better chances to succeed. This is clear from the examples of Ennahda in Tunisia and Muslim brotherhood in Egypt. The reason behind this is that any popular movement which challenges a long-entrenched establishment is bound to generate chaos and instability in the process. Those movements, who are most organized and decisive and in clear mind about their goals, are the ones who have got better chances to succeed than others with questionable organization skills and lack of clear goals.
This is probably the reason that the occupy movements in the USA and those in Europe have not yielded much success so far compared to what the popular movements have achieved in North Africa.
Rise of the technocrats
The ongoing fiscal uncertainties that continue to darken the European horizon have also brought into light a clear pattern. Countries like Greece and Italy have seen tremendous public opposition to the economic austerity policies which were carried out by their popularly-elected governments at the encouragement of their powerful donors in international finance communities.
Now after the popularly-elected governments failed to implement the austerity packages as demanded from the European Union hierarchies, we saw popularly elected governments in both Greece and Italy resign under pressure and these governments being replaced by non-elected bureaucrats, who have been termed derisively as “technocrats” and “eurocrats”.
These are the governments which do not need to fear the ballot boxes. They are not accountable to the public wish.
This brings a serious question into place. What Greece and Italy show us is that in crisis situations, decisive and firm leaderships are more preferable to the establishments than the chaos and indecisiveness of democratic elections.
This is true since crisis situations sometimes demand unpopular decisions. Sometimes it is not safe to place those unpopular decisions at the mercy of popular will through the ballot boxes. After all not all men vote knowing exactly for what and why he is voting.
Now that does not bode well for democracy. If Europe, the cradle of democracy, while facing a crisis, decides to terminate popular mandates, in favor of authority, then surely no one can blame those in power in China and Russia, for taking similar steps.
Another important question that comes here is that are democracies as we know them are always “of the people, for the people, by the people”? Does all are really equal in a democratic set-up when it comes to influence and decision making? Say for example an urban unemployed young man and a banking tycoon are theoretically in the same league since both of them have got similar rights of vote but are they really equal in terms of influencing the system? The banking tycoon through his financial resources has got better chances to influence decision making at the highest level that the unemployed urban young man can never hope to do. The Banker also can influence the political decisions through lobbying and other efforts which are more or less allowed to him by modern Western democracies. Does that mean that democracies are naturally conducive to equality?
This is a question that needs serious thought, introspections and discussions. This is probably the biggest question that established democracies around the World will have to face in 2012. At this moment, they do not have any ready answers to this question.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Monday, December 26, 2011
Why all personal tragedies in India become numbers in the end ?
Prakash was like any other middle-class Indian. He was a young man in his early thirties. After completing his MBA from a prestigious management institute, he bagged a job in one of the biggest multi-national corporations. Happily married to his beautiful, young wife, he was the only earning member of his family. Recently the work pressure at his office was taking tall in his health, so he decided to visit a nearby Hospital. Doctors advised him, to put up a few days in a hospital. Since he could afford it, he went into one of the highly-paying hospitals in the city. His family was relieved that that now Prakash was in care of one of the best hospitals in the city. Suddenly just one day after they had admitted Prakash into the hospital, they received an official phone call from the hospital. There was a dramatic fire incident at the hospital and Prakash was one of those dead who died because of lack of breathing air.
Preethi was like any other middle-class Indian housewife. She loved her husband and their little girl of two. She loved to cook and often boasted about her cooking prowess to her neighbors. She loved watching those reality shows and soap operas. One day while playing with her little daughter, she met a small accident. The doctors, after some tests, assured her husband and the rest of the family, that it was just another small fracture at her feet. Some days rest and some treatment will cure her. The family admitted her in one of the most-costly hospitals in the city. Just one night after Preethi was admitted; her husband received a phone call from her around midnight. “Come quickly, there is a major fire here, I am unable to breathe” – those were the final words from Preethi before the call got disconnected. When her husband reached the hospital, he found her Preethi but she was lifeless at that time.
Malli was one of the three children from a small Kerala village. Her father was a small farmer and her mother was a house-maid. Both her elder brothers decided to move to the Gulf for jobs. One of them was a driver of a big oil-tycoon Sheikh in Kuwait city and another was working as a hotel waiter at an Italian restaurant in Bahrain. Malli herself after completing her formal education completed the nursing course and then got a nursing job in a big hospital in one of the metros. She was happy with her life when she was able to send a portion of her meager salary to her family back home. One night there was a huge fire in her ward, she did her best to rescue as many people as she could but the effects smoke and poisonous smoke ensured that Malli herself could not be saved.
Now all these three people, Prakash, Preethi and Malli were like any one of us. Their personal tragedies as tragic as they are will have a common ending. They will be on the headlines of the newspapers, commented upon excessively in the television channels and chatted around social network forums , political parties will try to score points over each other and then after some days and if they lucky may be for a week later they will turn into numbers.
When a personal tragedy just becomes another number, it losses the tragedy part of it. The personal loss becomes just another incident and the tragic end of the person behind that fades into oblivion. Numbers and facts do not deal with the amount of emotions involved or the severity of these tremendous personal losses. When we read about the tragedies of a girl like Malli or a youth like Prakash, we can relate ourselves with those tragedies because we know at the back of our minds that similar things can happen to us or may have already happened to our relatives, friends or some very close ones. When we read in the newspaper or Internet in a headline such as “89 people dies in fire accident”, we do not relate ourselves to it. It just remains what it is. It is a tragic fact but to most of us in the end it is only another piece of arithmetic.
That is the ultimate end that happens to all the tragedies. They turn into numbers. In India, there is no end to personal and collective tragedies. We die in hundreds and thousands through train accidents, communal riots, caste violence, fire incidents , consuming tainted alcohol , industrial accidents , committing suicide after the death of some famous political or film celebrity or after India losses to the arch-rivals in Cricket and myriad other ways.
But after all one thing is common in all these deaths. After sometimes, when the media and other instruments of the respectable civil society, are sure that they can extract more attention out of these personal tragedies, they very conveniently turn their focuses on some other tragedies. After all in a country like ours there is no dearth of tragedies.
Take few examples. How many amongst us can remember the names of those farmers who committed suicide last month since they were unable to pay their rising debts? How many of us can remember the names of those victims of the Bhopal gas tragedy? How many amongst us can remember the names of the Chasnala colliery disaster victims? As I write this, I can see a picture in a very famous Bengali language newspaper. I can see the dead bodies of people who died just days back after consuming tainted alcohol in the state being piled and stacked upon a cycle van as if they are heaps of garbage, needed to be disposed of. How many of their names and stories will we ever come to know?
May be the reason behind this apathy in India is that we are so numerous and disorganized as a people that we do not value much beyond our own lives. That could be one reason that when we hear tragedies like these we just do not care enough about these incidents.
Or may be in India we are too much prone to violence and death that we have resigned ourselves to the view that these tragedies are in fact a normal course of life. We see so many instances of violence and death all around us that we are immune to these horrific personal tragedies beyond a certain level. Or have we become just too individualistic to care about the deaths like these? I guess it is a combination of all these factors.
Every time such a tragedy occurs, we will condemn those who we think are behind all these, demand their punishments and then just as those events occurred we will go to the hibernation mood. After all, in India our toleration of tragedies such as those of Bhopal and Chasnala are legendary. So it will ensure that the fundamental causes behind those tragedies will never come to an end. Our tolerance will ensure that.
So after these tragic events, we will burn candles and promise “never again” and then go on to the perpetual hibernation until the next tragedy gives us the opportunity to burn candles and promise.
The names of the persons I have used in this article i.e. those of Prakash, Preethi and Malli, may or may not have any resemblance to reality. I used those names in the belief that uttering them for at least once more will ensure that at least some personal tragedies will be viewed as what they are i.e. real , terrible human losses and not mere numbers.
Preethi was like any other middle-class Indian housewife. She loved her husband and their little girl of two. She loved to cook and often boasted about her cooking prowess to her neighbors. She loved watching those reality shows and soap operas. One day while playing with her little daughter, she met a small accident. The doctors, after some tests, assured her husband and the rest of the family, that it was just another small fracture at her feet. Some days rest and some treatment will cure her. The family admitted her in one of the most-costly hospitals in the city. Just one night after Preethi was admitted; her husband received a phone call from her around midnight. “Come quickly, there is a major fire here, I am unable to breathe” – those were the final words from Preethi before the call got disconnected. When her husband reached the hospital, he found her Preethi but she was lifeless at that time.
Malli was one of the three children from a small Kerala village. Her father was a small farmer and her mother was a house-maid. Both her elder brothers decided to move to the Gulf for jobs. One of them was a driver of a big oil-tycoon Sheikh in Kuwait city and another was working as a hotel waiter at an Italian restaurant in Bahrain. Malli herself after completing her formal education completed the nursing course and then got a nursing job in a big hospital in one of the metros. She was happy with her life when she was able to send a portion of her meager salary to her family back home. One night there was a huge fire in her ward, she did her best to rescue as many people as she could but the effects smoke and poisonous smoke ensured that Malli herself could not be saved.
Now all these three people, Prakash, Preethi and Malli were like any one of us. Their personal tragedies as tragic as they are will have a common ending. They will be on the headlines of the newspapers, commented upon excessively in the television channels and chatted around social network forums , political parties will try to score points over each other and then after some days and if they lucky may be for a week later they will turn into numbers.
When a personal tragedy just becomes another number, it losses the tragedy part of it. The personal loss becomes just another incident and the tragic end of the person behind that fades into oblivion. Numbers and facts do not deal with the amount of emotions involved or the severity of these tremendous personal losses. When we read about the tragedies of a girl like Malli or a youth like Prakash, we can relate ourselves with those tragedies because we know at the back of our minds that similar things can happen to us or may have already happened to our relatives, friends or some very close ones. When we read in the newspaper or Internet in a headline such as “89 people dies in fire accident”, we do not relate ourselves to it. It just remains what it is. It is a tragic fact but to most of us in the end it is only another piece of arithmetic.
That is the ultimate end that happens to all the tragedies. They turn into numbers. In India, there is no end to personal and collective tragedies. We die in hundreds and thousands through train accidents, communal riots, caste violence, fire incidents , consuming tainted alcohol , industrial accidents , committing suicide after the death of some famous political or film celebrity or after India losses to the arch-rivals in Cricket and myriad other ways.
But after all one thing is common in all these deaths. After sometimes, when the media and other instruments of the respectable civil society, are sure that they can extract more attention out of these personal tragedies, they very conveniently turn their focuses on some other tragedies. After all in a country like ours there is no dearth of tragedies.
Take few examples. How many amongst us can remember the names of those farmers who committed suicide last month since they were unable to pay their rising debts? How many of us can remember the names of those victims of the Bhopal gas tragedy? How many amongst us can remember the names of the Chasnala colliery disaster victims? As I write this, I can see a picture in a very famous Bengali language newspaper. I can see the dead bodies of people who died just days back after consuming tainted alcohol in the state being piled and stacked upon a cycle van as if they are heaps of garbage, needed to be disposed of. How many of their names and stories will we ever come to know?
May be the reason behind this apathy in India is that we are so numerous and disorganized as a people that we do not value much beyond our own lives. That could be one reason that when we hear tragedies like these we just do not care enough about these incidents.
Or may be in India we are too much prone to violence and death that we have resigned ourselves to the view that these tragedies are in fact a normal course of life. We see so many instances of violence and death all around us that we are immune to these horrific personal tragedies beyond a certain level. Or have we become just too individualistic to care about the deaths like these? I guess it is a combination of all these factors.
Every time such a tragedy occurs, we will condemn those who we think are behind all these, demand their punishments and then just as those events occurred we will go to the hibernation mood. After all, in India our toleration of tragedies such as those of Bhopal and Chasnala are legendary. So it will ensure that the fundamental causes behind those tragedies will never come to an end. Our tolerance will ensure that.
So after these tragic events, we will burn candles and promise “never again” and then go on to the perpetual hibernation until the next tragedy gives us the opportunity to burn candles and promise.
The names of the persons I have used in this article i.e. those of Prakash, Preethi and Malli, may or may not have any resemblance to reality. I used those names in the belief that uttering them for at least once more will ensure that at least some personal tragedies will be viewed as what they are i.e. real , terrible human losses and not mere numbers.
Friday, December 16, 2011
A clash of two victimisms
As the popular movements continue to sweep the whole Arab World, the familiar rivalry continues between Israel and Iran.
This is not that arrived yesterday. When Israel first came into being, Israeli leader David Ben Gurion, in order to offset the Arab opposition and rejection of Israel, emphasized closer ties with major non-Arab peoples in the region. These included having generally good ties with Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia.
Both Iran and Turkey were under largely pro-Western regimes i.e. Turkey under the Kemalist elite and Iran under the jack boot of the Pahlavi dynasty.
Both regimes largely accommodated all major Western interests in the region. Keeping a distance away from Kremlin, being nice to Israel and particularly in the case of Iran the terms of vassalage meant selling cheap oil to its Western clients.
Yet it was the Iranians who were the first to opt out of this arrangement. When the Iranians booted out the Shah regime from power, it not only inaugurated a new political element in the region but ensured something very interesting in the region.
The Islamic republic of Iran wanted the acknowledgement of the West of its sovereignty.
It wanted to continue to sell her oil to the West but in its own terms. It also did not want to do anything with Israel which the Iranians considered to be oppressive and usurper of the rights of indigenous Palestinians.
Thus began the rivalry between Iran and Israel.
Two peoples, two unique victimhoods
Iran and Israel may have been at each other’s throats for last few decades yet these two nations’ current political systems have tremendous similarities between them in terms of their respective purposes and coming into beings.
Israel was born out of the crematoriums of the holocaust. The Zionist ideology was born out of a sense of fear of the European Jews who thought they will be assimilated into the culture of the Goyim West. It was the ideology of a people who long considered themselves victimized in perpetuity for who they were … “the chosen people of G_D” The struggle for Israel is thereby the struggle of a people who considers themselves eternal victims of the jealousy and hatred of others for their election by G_D.
The Islamic republic of Iran also considers itself a victim. Iranians consider themselves the victims of the greed of a materialistic Western civilization which wants to exploit Iran’s material resources on terms which are strictly unfavorable to Iran. The Islamic revolutionaries also consider believe the Iranian culture to be a victim of the promiscuous and permissive culture of the West.
History supports the views of Iranian Islamic revolutionaries. When Mohammad Mossadegh nationalized the Oil industry and kicked out the British oil interests, the first Iranian leader to do so, he was unceremoniously sacked in a coup inspired and financed by the USA and UK.
What followed was 26 years of brutal suppression of the Iranian people’s wish to be free and sovereign under the Shah regime, imposed and encouraged by the West. The Shah regime allowed Iranian women to show off their bodies to whoever they would like to, but took away the rights of the Iranian people to be free.
However the most important inspiration of the Islamic republic is the martyrdom of Imam Hussein at Karbala , a millennium ago. From that time, the followers of Imam Hussein take inspiration from the fact that Imam Hussein refused to bow down to the dictates of the tyrannical and illegitimate ruler Yezid.
The followers of Hussein from that very day consider death more preferable than bowing to the dictates of what they consider arrogant and tyrants.
The Islamic republic also considers itself another Hussein fighting for its sovereignty and that of other unfortunate people like the Palestinians against the arrogant and tyrannical West.
The Islamic republic knows the consequences of its non-compliance to the current international system brings in economic sanctions, cyber attacks like that of Stuxnet variety, sabotage of its infrastructure and even assassinations of some its best scientists.
Still it remains unafraid. Iran considers its right to have a nuclear program as befitting a sovereign people and is willing to fight for that right which the current international system wants to take away from it.
This is probably the reason the Iranians did not use chemical weapons against their Iraqi enemies despite having that option. Iran believed it was fighting another Yezid in Saddam who was using those very same Chemical weapons against Iran, supplied by the West. Iran considered Chemical weapons against the conventions of war and decided not to use it despite losing thousands to those weapons.
Similarly, the Iranian supreme leader continues to veto the option of building of the nuclear bombs despite having the option to do so when almost every security analyst in the World including some Israelis think they will be justified to do so.
The world awaits another Karbala.
This is not that arrived yesterday. When Israel first came into being, Israeli leader David Ben Gurion, in order to offset the Arab opposition and rejection of Israel, emphasized closer ties with major non-Arab peoples in the region. These included having generally good ties with Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia.
Both Iran and Turkey were under largely pro-Western regimes i.e. Turkey under the Kemalist elite and Iran under the jack boot of the Pahlavi dynasty.
Both regimes largely accommodated all major Western interests in the region. Keeping a distance away from Kremlin, being nice to Israel and particularly in the case of Iran the terms of vassalage meant selling cheap oil to its Western clients.
Yet it was the Iranians who were the first to opt out of this arrangement. When the Iranians booted out the Shah regime from power, it not only inaugurated a new political element in the region but ensured something very interesting in the region.
The Islamic republic of Iran wanted the acknowledgement of the West of its sovereignty.
It wanted to continue to sell her oil to the West but in its own terms. It also did not want to do anything with Israel which the Iranians considered to be oppressive and usurper of the rights of indigenous Palestinians.
Thus began the rivalry between Iran and Israel.
Two peoples, two unique victimhoods
Iran and Israel may have been at each other’s throats for last few decades yet these two nations’ current political systems have tremendous similarities between them in terms of their respective purposes and coming into beings.
Israel was born out of the crematoriums of the holocaust. The Zionist ideology was born out of a sense of fear of the European Jews who thought they will be assimilated into the culture of the Goyim West. It was the ideology of a people who long considered themselves victimized in perpetuity for who they were … “the chosen people of G_D” The struggle for Israel is thereby the struggle of a people who considers themselves eternal victims of the jealousy and hatred of others for their election by G_D.
The Islamic republic of Iran also considers itself a victim. Iranians consider themselves the victims of the greed of a materialistic Western civilization which wants to exploit Iran’s material resources on terms which are strictly unfavorable to Iran. The Islamic revolutionaries also consider believe the Iranian culture to be a victim of the promiscuous and permissive culture of the West.
History supports the views of Iranian Islamic revolutionaries. When Mohammad Mossadegh nationalized the Oil industry and kicked out the British oil interests, the first Iranian leader to do so, he was unceremoniously sacked in a coup inspired and financed by the USA and UK.
What followed was 26 years of brutal suppression of the Iranian people’s wish to be free and sovereign under the Shah regime, imposed and encouraged by the West. The Shah regime allowed Iranian women to show off their bodies to whoever they would like to, but took away the rights of the Iranian people to be free.
However the most important inspiration of the Islamic republic is the martyrdom of Imam Hussein at Karbala , a millennium ago. From that time, the followers of Imam Hussein take inspiration from the fact that Imam Hussein refused to bow down to the dictates of the tyrannical and illegitimate ruler Yezid.
The followers of Hussein from that very day consider death more preferable than bowing to the dictates of what they consider arrogant and tyrants.
The Islamic republic also considers itself another Hussein fighting for its sovereignty and that of other unfortunate people like the Palestinians against the arrogant and tyrannical West.
The Islamic republic knows the consequences of its non-compliance to the current international system brings in economic sanctions, cyber attacks like that of Stuxnet variety, sabotage of its infrastructure and even assassinations of some its best scientists.
Still it remains unafraid. Iran considers its right to have a nuclear program as befitting a sovereign people and is willing to fight for that right which the current international system wants to take away from it.
This is probably the reason the Iranians did not use chemical weapons against their Iraqi enemies despite having that option. Iran believed it was fighting another Yezid in Saddam who was using those very same Chemical weapons against Iran, supplied by the West. Iran considered Chemical weapons against the conventions of war and decided not to use it despite losing thousands to those weapons.
Similarly, the Iranian supreme leader continues to veto the option of building of the nuclear bombs despite having the option to do so when almost every security analyst in the World including some Israelis think they will be justified to do so.
The world awaits another Karbala.
Strategic Vision 2020-Turkey
Introduction
The prominent role Turkey has played during the ongoing events in the Arab world is a long-awaited natural fulfillment of its historical responsibilities in the region. To solidify and expand its role and influences, the current leadership of Turkey needs to define its strategic objectives for the next decade from now on.
Here are the below objectives I believe Turkey should set for itself for the next decade.
Achieving a strong and sustainable economic foundation for the next decade
Historically, the most important pre-requisite for achieving international respectability and influence is to have a strong and sustainable economic foundation. A strong economy also ensures a strong and sustainable resource allocation towards military and strategic usages. This is exactly the way the European powers took towards international glory and great power status in the 19-th century, the United States took in the 20-th century and China has been taking in our times. Turkey has been on a strong path of growth in the recent years; easily achieving unforeseen growth rates that it has never seen previously. It needs to maintain this momentum throughout the coming decade and if possible to expand more. Here are some of the steps I believe the Turkish leadership should look to work to sustain its strong economic momentum in recent years.
1. Establishment of a common-market zone in the region:
One of the issues that may impact Turkey’s economic foundation in future could be its trade and other deficits. One of the most proven ways to control those deficits is to increase exports. The post-revolution countries in the West Asian and North African region are the natural markets for Turkish products and services. The current Turkish leadership has been working towards this for some time now by initiating a common-market and open-border mechanism with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Now this same mechanism could be created for the post-revolutionary countries in the region like Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq and Libya once the revolutionary dust settles in these countries. Turkey should work with Iran to include Tehran also in this set-up for better regional integration. A similar kind of relationship could be worked upon with the central Asian as well as Balkan countries considering the historical fraternal ties that Turkey enjoys with these countries in the region. These countries in question would need a lot of enhancement and improvement in terms of their infrastructure. Turkey can offer great help to these countries in this regard. A free trade mechanism would help Turkish companies to fulfill these demands of the regional countries. This common market as a principle should enable a free flow of goods and services across the borders of the member countries as well as offering an opportunity
2. Exploiting the energy potential of the Eastern Mediterranean sea:
Achieving energy independence is also very important for turkey for establishing the strong economic base. The Eastern Mediterranean provides Turkey an excellent opportunity for exploiting its potentials. The Eastern Mediterranean area according to a recent US geological survey estimates may well contain 120 tcf (approximate) amount of natural gas. The countries which are in the region are Israel, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and the Cypriots. Israel and Greek Cypriots are already planning a collaboration effort in this regard for the exploration of the natural resources in the area. Lebanon and Turkish Cypriots are also looking for assistance in helping out them for possible exploration opportunities in the region. Turkey should look to help these countries in this regard. Regarding the situation with the possible collaboration between Greek Cypriots and Israel in exploiting the natural resources of the area; let us consider the fact that Greece, the traditional patron of the Greek Cypriots is going through a terrible economic situation and is in desperate need of financial help to avoid bankruptcy. Turkey can think about collaboration with a country for example China to offer Athens its much needed financial help in exchange of Athens using its good offices with Greek Cypriots to allow Turkey and China to collaborate in exploration of natural gas in marine territory under the control of Athens and Nicosia. From the perspective of Greece as well as the Greek Cypriots, the option of collaboration with two of the fastest growing economies in the World should be a better proposition that dealing with an increasingly isolated Israel. The recent economic collaboration treaty between Turkey and Egypt is a step in the right direction. The ultimate objective of Turkish policy in the Mediterranean should be to create a common-market approach with the like-minded nations in the area for securing the continuous exploitation and transportation of the vital natural resources in the area.
Establishing a more democratic and representative order in the Arab World
The current situation in West Asia and the wider region represent a conflict between two competing philosophies. On one side there is Israel and her Western backers led by the USA and supported by the monarchical regimes in the Gulf. The main objective of these regimes is to stall the march of freedom i.e. to ensure the status-quo which has been in effect since the end of 1967-war between Israel and the Arab states. On the other hand there are these nascent movements as can be seen in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and elsewhere calling for a change in the situation. These movements call for more popular participation in the political affairs of the countries as well as a dignified and just resolution to the decades old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Considering the current Turkish leadership has strongly supported these nascent political movements for freedom and change in the Arab world, it is fitting for Turkey to consolidate, organize and help the freedom movements in the Arab world reach their objectives. These are the approaches Turkey should follow in my view during the next decade.
1. Presenting a justifiable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – Thanks to the inflexible approach of the Israeli side and the unimpressive American mediation efforts the internationally approved two-state solution looks increasingly bleak. If the Palestinian bid for statehood fails in the current UN general session then there will be only one justifiable solution left for all the concerned parties in the region i.e. an one-state solution whereby all the inhabitants of the region i.e. Jews , Christians and Muslims can live with peace and prosperity in one single democratic state. There is already a camp among both the Palestinians as well as non-Zionist Jews like those belonging to Neturei Karta who does support a democratic one-state solution for all the peoples in the holy land. Even Israeli rightwing politicians such as Reuven Rivlin have supported similar position in past.It will do Turkey a lot of favor in terms of world public opinion to support a future movement for a possible democratic and inclusive one-state solution to the problem.
2. Supporting potential movements of freedom in the status–quo states of the region: Turkey should start encouraging and organizing popular movements in the countries of the region which call for greater political participation in the political affairs of the countries of region. Supporting pro-democracy groups in places like Bahrain would help Turkish pro-democracy and pro-freedom credentials in the wider Muslim world.
3. A regional approach: Turkey should try to establish strong economic and strategic relationships with the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries and especially Russia and China. Having a strong relationship with those countries would allow Turkey a lot of maneuverability in terms of its existing strategic equations with the NATO-allied countries in general and the USA, UK and France in particular. Turkey needs this maneuverability considering that it’s interests in the Arab world will not always be at the same length with that of its NATO partners in all the times as we have seen in case of Iranian nuclear question as well as the Israeli-Palestinian issues.
In case of crisis situations like the one we have seen in Libya; Turkey should work to create a regional body to enforce law and order as well as finding out a just and politically acceptable solution to the crisis situations like the one in Libya. This regional body should include prominent countries in the region like Turkey, Egypt, Iran etc and it could also consider involving organizations like OIC, SCO and AU in the handling of crisis situations in the region. Without any regional approaches initiated to conflict prevention and conflict resolution we can see further interventions from actors outside the region like in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya with tragic consequences for everyone in the region.
4. A new approach towards the EU: Turkey needs to have a revised approach towards the EU. Instead of adopting its policies vis a vis Europe as a whole block, Turkey should consider forging relationships with individual EU countries based upon its interests and concerns. Historically, there have been only three major power players in the European hemisphere i.e. UK, France and Germany. Now alike their historical past, the countries in question do have divergence of interests in a lot of issues as we have seen in the recent events in Libya. Turkey needs to adopt its policies in keeping this fact in mind. There is another strong reason behind adopting policies with individual EU countries. Considering the current difficult economic scenarios it will be interesting to observe whether the EU is able to maintain its integrity and continued existence as a continent-wide block. If the EU is not able to maintain its integrity in the future, then Turkey would need to weigh its options based upon its interests.
Conclusion
The Arab spring has presented a set of unique opportunities for Turkey to lead a new order in the region with new hopes and expectations. If the Turkish leadership decides to encourage and strengthen these new approaches of collaboration and integration as is currently prevalent in the region; undoubtedly a more prosperous and independent order will come into being in the region.
The prominent role Turkey has played during the ongoing events in the Arab world is a long-awaited natural fulfillment of its historical responsibilities in the region. To solidify and expand its role and influences, the current leadership of Turkey needs to define its strategic objectives for the next decade from now on.
Here are the below objectives I believe Turkey should set for itself for the next decade.
Achieving a strong and sustainable economic foundation for the next decade
Historically, the most important pre-requisite for achieving international respectability and influence is to have a strong and sustainable economic foundation. A strong economy also ensures a strong and sustainable resource allocation towards military and strategic usages. This is exactly the way the European powers took towards international glory and great power status in the 19-th century, the United States took in the 20-th century and China has been taking in our times. Turkey has been on a strong path of growth in the recent years; easily achieving unforeseen growth rates that it has never seen previously. It needs to maintain this momentum throughout the coming decade and if possible to expand more. Here are some of the steps I believe the Turkish leadership should look to work to sustain its strong economic momentum in recent years.
1. Establishment of a common-market zone in the region:
One of the issues that may impact Turkey’s economic foundation in future could be its trade and other deficits. One of the most proven ways to control those deficits is to increase exports. The post-revolution countries in the West Asian and North African region are the natural markets for Turkish products and services. The current Turkish leadership has been working towards this for some time now by initiating a common-market and open-border mechanism with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Now this same mechanism could be created for the post-revolutionary countries in the region like Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq and Libya once the revolutionary dust settles in these countries. Turkey should work with Iran to include Tehran also in this set-up for better regional integration. A similar kind of relationship could be worked upon with the central Asian as well as Balkan countries considering the historical fraternal ties that Turkey enjoys with these countries in the region. These countries in question would need a lot of enhancement and improvement in terms of their infrastructure. Turkey can offer great help to these countries in this regard. A free trade mechanism would help Turkish companies to fulfill these demands of the regional countries. This common market as a principle should enable a free flow of goods and services across the borders of the member countries as well as offering an opportunity
2. Exploiting the energy potential of the Eastern Mediterranean sea:
Achieving energy independence is also very important for turkey for establishing the strong economic base. The Eastern Mediterranean provides Turkey an excellent opportunity for exploiting its potentials. The Eastern Mediterranean area according to a recent US geological survey estimates may well contain 120 tcf (approximate) amount of natural gas. The countries which are in the region are Israel, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and the Cypriots. Israel and Greek Cypriots are already planning a collaboration effort in this regard for the exploration of the natural resources in the area. Lebanon and Turkish Cypriots are also looking for assistance in helping out them for possible exploration opportunities in the region. Turkey should look to help these countries in this regard. Regarding the situation with the possible collaboration between Greek Cypriots and Israel in exploiting the natural resources of the area; let us consider the fact that Greece, the traditional patron of the Greek Cypriots is going through a terrible economic situation and is in desperate need of financial help to avoid bankruptcy. Turkey can think about collaboration with a country for example China to offer Athens its much needed financial help in exchange of Athens using its good offices with Greek Cypriots to allow Turkey and China to collaborate in exploration of natural gas in marine territory under the control of Athens and Nicosia. From the perspective of Greece as well as the Greek Cypriots, the option of collaboration with two of the fastest growing economies in the World should be a better proposition that dealing with an increasingly isolated Israel. The recent economic collaboration treaty between Turkey and Egypt is a step in the right direction. The ultimate objective of Turkish policy in the Mediterranean should be to create a common-market approach with the like-minded nations in the area for securing the continuous exploitation and transportation of the vital natural resources in the area.
Establishing a more democratic and representative order in the Arab World
The current situation in West Asia and the wider region represent a conflict between two competing philosophies. On one side there is Israel and her Western backers led by the USA and supported by the monarchical regimes in the Gulf. The main objective of these regimes is to stall the march of freedom i.e. to ensure the status-quo which has been in effect since the end of 1967-war between Israel and the Arab states. On the other hand there are these nascent movements as can be seen in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and elsewhere calling for a change in the situation. These movements call for more popular participation in the political affairs of the countries as well as a dignified and just resolution to the decades old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Considering the current Turkish leadership has strongly supported these nascent political movements for freedom and change in the Arab world, it is fitting for Turkey to consolidate, organize and help the freedom movements in the Arab world reach their objectives. These are the approaches Turkey should follow in my view during the next decade.
1. Presenting a justifiable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – Thanks to the inflexible approach of the Israeli side and the unimpressive American mediation efforts the internationally approved two-state solution looks increasingly bleak. If the Palestinian bid for statehood fails in the current UN general session then there will be only one justifiable solution left for all the concerned parties in the region i.e. an one-state solution whereby all the inhabitants of the region i.e. Jews , Christians and Muslims can live with peace and prosperity in one single democratic state. There is already a camp among both the Palestinians as well as non-Zionist Jews like those belonging to Neturei Karta who does support a democratic one-state solution for all the peoples in the holy land. Even Israeli rightwing politicians such as Reuven Rivlin have supported similar position in past.It will do Turkey a lot of favor in terms of world public opinion to support a future movement for a possible democratic and inclusive one-state solution to the problem.
2. Supporting potential movements of freedom in the status–quo states of the region: Turkey should start encouraging and organizing popular movements in the countries of the region which call for greater political participation in the political affairs of the countries of region. Supporting pro-democracy groups in places like Bahrain would help Turkish pro-democracy and pro-freedom credentials in the wider Muslim world.
3. A regional approach: Turkey should try to establish strong economic and strategic relationships with the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries and especially Russia and China. Having a strong relationship with those countries would allow Turkey a lot of maneuverability in terms of its existing strategic equations with the NATO-allied countries in general and the USA, UK and France in particular. Turkey needs this maneuverability considering that it’s interests in the Arab world will not always be at the same length with that of its NATO partners in all the times as we have seen in case of Iranian nuclear question as well as the Israeli-Palestinian issues.
In case of crisis situations like the one we have seen in Libya; Turkey should work to create a regional body to enforce law and order as well as finding out a just and politically acceptable solution to the crisis situations like the one in Libya. This regional body should include prominent countries in the region like Turkey, Egypt, Iran etc and it could also consider involving organizations like OIC, SCO and AU in the handling of crisis situations in the region. Without any regional approaches initiated to conflict prevention and conflict resolution we can see further interventions from actors outside the region like in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya with tragic consequences for everyone in the region.
4. A new approach towards the EU: Turkey needs to have a revised approach towards the EU. Instead of adopting its policies vis a vis Europe as a whole block, Turkey should consider forging relationships with individual EU countries based upon its interests and concerns. Historically, there have been only three major power players in the European hemisphere i.e. UK, France and Germany. Now alike their historical past, the countries in question do have divergence of interests in a lot of issues as we have seen in the recent events in Libya. Turkey needs to adopt its policies in keeping this fact in mind. There is another strong reason behind adopting policies with individual EU countries. Considering the current difficult economic scenarios it will be interesting to observe whether the EU is able to maintain its integrity and continued existence as a continent-wide block. If the EU is not able to maintain its integrity in the future, then Turkey would need to weigh its options based upon its interests.
Conclusion
The Arab spring has presented a set of unique opportunities for Turkey to lead a new order in the region with new hopes and expectations. If the Turkish leadership decides to encourage and strengthen these new approaches of collaboration and integration as is currently prevalent in the region; undoubtedly a more prosperous and independent order will come into being in the region.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Lessons to learn from the tragedy at AMRI
After hearing the tragic news of what happened at AMRI today, I too have been shocked and sad at the carnage that took many valuable lives of patients. But after all the shock and grieve, we need to come to our senses and need to learn some useful lessons from this episode.
My emotions on this tragedy are of shock, horror and most alarmingly, I have a sense of fear that this points to something diabolically wrong with us as a people.
As usual I am shocked on the incident considering the pain of those who trusted the hospital authorities before admitting their loved ones and expected those patients would be taken care of well.
As a resident of Kolkata, I know how hard it is for common people in Kolkata to admit some relative to a hospital like that of AMRI. The reason behind that is that it is extremely difficult for common people to pay those exponentially amount of bills of a hospital like AMRI. Until and unless, it is absolute emergency, people do not find it conducive to admit patients simply because of the ever increasing hospital tariffs. Yet people admit their loved ones, simply because AMRI is a high brand-name when it comes to Hospitals in Kolkata.
To explain how high the bills could become let me give one example. I remember one of my friends admitting his mother in one of those big brand-name hospitals some years back after she was badly burnt in a fire related accident at her home. The doctors diagnosed that she was around 30 per cent burnt. The doctors initially charged around Rs. 6 Lakhs for her treatment for the total duration of one month. They promised that she would be cured well within that period. But even before the one month period had expired, my friend and his relatives were communicated a bill amount of around Rs 30 Lakhs for the patient’s treatment in that time. She, according to her own doctors, was not even properly cured at the time.
Now when you admit some close relative with those very high costs involved, you expect them to be taken care of properly. One assures himself or herself that best treatment and care that his or her hard earned money can buy. Now if this kind of a situation arrives suddenly where after admitting your seriously ill loved one the previous night, you watch with disbelief in the morning that the very hospital has turned into an inferno, and in the evening found out that your relative is no more thanks to the fire, well I do not have any other ways to express that mood. It is of sheer horror.
But what is more alarming to me is the attitude on the part of some people; that leads to those incidents.
My dear readers we talk a lot about corruption in our economy and politics but what about corruption in the morals of our society that causes these kinds of tragedies.
To explain to my dear readers what I mean let me give an example. In one of these highly costly hospitals in Kolkata, a friend of mine had admitted his father. The poor old man’s situation was critical and he needed to be put on with a life support system. After some days, the hospital authorities had declared the patient dead and released the body after obtaining a very heavy bill amount.
Now my friend somehow thought everything was not right about this incident. Fortunately for him, he happened to know someone working closely with the doctors. From him, he got an inside news, his father had passed away some days back before the hospital authorities had actually declared his father dead.
But the doctors, after some very strong pressure from the high level hospital authorities had decided to keep the dead body under life support system just to inflate the bill as much as they can.
Now to me, this was not only horrific or shocking but this represents a clear cut moral issue.
The hospital authorities treat the critical medical cases as businessmen treat business opportunities for profit and as a consequence they are willing to squeeze as much as they can from it.
I remember asking a very high level marketing guy who was working with one of these big brand hospitals, why the tariffs were so high there. He said, the hospital authorities, need to charge that much only to ensure their brand value. The logic involved here is that if the people think they are paying hugely for their treatment, then they will think that is the best treatment they are getting in return.
This to me clearly suggests the moral problem that I am trying to explain here. When patients become money making machines for hospital authorities then surely they will do everything possible in their ways to squeeze the profits out.
That is why, doctors are put under pressure to come up with ever inflating bills and that is why fire-prevention systems are not properly maintained as these may not be very profitable for the hospital owners for various reasons.
The gesture to compensate each of the victims with Rs 5 Lakhs by the respective hospital authority in question is that much cause of alarm for me. It not only highlights an attitude on the part of the authorities that money can buy everything including people’s emotions but it also suggests that no corrective measures will probably taken to prevent these kinds of situations hereafter.
This moral breakdown whereby individual patients are considered another piece of transaction is more of concern to me. And that will not change until we change as a people.
My emotions on this tragedy are of shock, horror and most alarmingly, I have a sense of fear that this points to something diabolically wrong with us as a people.
As usual I am shocked on the incident considering the pain of those who trusted the hospital authorities before admitting their loved ones and expected those patients would be taken care of well.
As a resident of Kolkata, I know how hard it is for common people in Kolkata to admit some relative to a hospital like that of AMRI. The reason behind that is that it is extremely difficult for common people to pay those exponentially amount of bills of a hospital like AMRI. Until and unless, it is absolute emergency, people do not find it conducive to admit patients simply because of the ever increasing hospital tariffs. Yet people admit their loved ones, simply because AMRI is a high brand-name when it comes to Hospitals in Kolkata.
To explain how high the bills could become let me give one example. I remember one of my friends admitting his mother in one of those big brand-name hospitals some years back after she was badly burnt in a fire related accident at her home. The doctors diagnosed that she was around 30 per cent burnt. The doctors initially charged around Rs. 6 Lakhs for her treatment for the total duration of one month. They promised that she would be cured well within that period. But even before the one month period had expired, my friend and his relatives were communicated a bill amount of around Rs 30 Lakhs for the patient’s treatment in that time. She, according to her own doctors, was not even properly cured at the time.
Now when you admit some close relative with those very high costs involved, you expect them to be taken care of properly. One assures himself or herself that best treatment and care that his or her hard earned money can buy. Now if this kind of a situation arrives suddenly where after admitting your seriously ill loved one the previous night, you watch with disbelief in the morning that the very hospital has turned into an inferno, and in the evening found out that your relative is no more thanks to the fire, well I do not have any other ways to express that mood. It is of sheer horror.
But what is more alarming to me is the attitude on the part of some people; that leads to those incidents.
My dear readers we talk a lot about corruption in our economy and politics but what about corruption in the morals of our society that causes these kinds of tragedies.
To explain to my dear readers what I mean let me give an example. In one of these highly costly hospitals in Kolkata, a friend of mine had admitted his father. The poor old man’s situation was critical and he needed to be put on with a life support system. After some days, the hospital authorities had declared the patient dead and released the body after obtaining a very heavy bill amount.
Now my friend somehow thought everything was not right about this incident. Fortunately for him, he happened to know someone working closely with the doctors. From him, he got an inside news, his father had passed away some days back before the hospital authorities had actually declared his father dead.
But the doctors, after some very strong pressure from the high level hospital authorities had decided to keep the dead body under life support system just to inflate the bill as much as they can.
Now to me, this was not only horrific or shocking but this represents a clear cut moral issue.
The hospital authorities treat the critical medical cases as businessmen treat business opportunities for profit and as a consequence they are willing to squeeze as much as they can from it.
I remember asking a very high level marketing guy who was working with one of these big brand hospitals, why the tariffs were so high there. He said, the hospital authorities, need to charge that much only to ensure their brand value. The logic involved here is that if the people think they are paying hugely for their treatment, then they will think that is the best treatment they are getting in return.
This to me clearly suggests the moral problem that I am trying to explain here. When patients become money making machines for hospital authorities then surely they will do everything possible in their ways to squeeze the profits out.
That is why, doctors are put under pressure to come up with ever inflating bills and that is why fire-prevention systems are not properly maintained as these may not be very profitable for the hospital owners for various reasons.
The gesture to compensate each of the victims with Rs 5 Lakhs by the respective hospital authority in question is that much cause of alarm for me. It not only highlights an attitude on the part of the authorities that money can buy everything including people’s emotions but it also suggests that no corrective measures will probably taken to prevent these kinds of situations hereafter.
This moral breakdown whereby individual patients are considered another piece of transaction is more of concern to me. And that will not change until we change as a people.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
A fair solution to the European debt crisis from Philip the fair
It was a time of early autumn in Europe. The year was 1307. The time was around mid night. A European king was pacing back and forth in his personal-chamber. The soft and fading light of the lamp was enough only for the King to continue his tireless walk. The night was a beautiful one and even in his tensed mind he was longing to be united with one of his wives even if it was possible as a relief from his worries. But his thoughts kept him awake.
Philip the fair, King of France, was thinking about a possible solution to find enough funds to ensure he could continue to fight his enemies. After fighting for years, not only his coffers were almost empty but he owed a lot of money to the main financer of the day, the templar Knights.
King Philip had tried other methods to gather the funds. He had kicked out the Jews from his Kingdom and seized their properties. He over taxed his nobles. He even offered the Knights templar to unite with a group of Knights favorable to him and join together in a larger group with him at the top, only to be rejected by the Knights.
What was most problematic for him was being in neck deep in debts. He owed so much to the templar Knights that not even he, one of the most powerful monarchs in Christendom could think about repaying them in his lifetime.
He could not do much against the templar Knights since they were protected under the Pope’s authority. “Ohh … papacy, those old monks from that abomination called Rome, ruling the whole World through the turning of their rosaries. Why should a sovereign King send his best men to fight and die on behalf of those old men? So that those old men would continue to demand more tributes from the Monarchs who must as a result burden his nobles and barons with more taxes? Is that the reason those old men continue to blackmail the sovereign monarchs with hell till eternity?” He continued to be agitated as he continued to think on those lines.
He never liked either those templar Knights or those half-baked, old popes. He had refused to fight the enemies of pope before. He even had went as far as publicly burning the bull of one of the popes some years back.
Thankfully he had played his hands right. He was sure that no other monarch would come to the aid of that pope Bonafice whose bull he burnt in public , once he attacked him , since no one was ready to shed their bloods for a conspiring , delusional old man like that Pope Bonafice VIII.
He acted on what his instinct was and he was right. When his men kidnapped the pope Bonafice VIII and locked him up, no significant European Monarch send armies to fight him.
How empty was the last look of that Bonafice VII, that old haggard who had the temerity to excommunicate him, Philippe le Bel. That old monk, had threatened that he will burn in hellfire till eternity yet that representative of God on earth could not protect himself to be kidnapped and locked away, like a child.
That last look of that pope reminded him of himself, once when he was young; he had fallen inside a well while riding a new white stead. He was thinking about riding through those lush, green fields for conquering Jerusalem and suddenly he heard a large thud and the next moment he could only remember, he was inside that well. No lights, there. Knee deep in water he could not think about anything for seconds. He never knew before what it meant to be knee deep in cold water. Thank heavens, his riding aides were behind.
He chuckled and clenched his fist upwards as if he was gesturing to the Almighty about how he treated that pope Bonafice, God’s representative on earth. He thought he had returned a favor to that Monarch up in the heavens.
He knew he needed to do something about those templar Knights if he wanted the money for fighting his wars. His legal advisors had been advising him to do something exactly on that regard. How right was he to select as his advisors real legal experts and not those old monks whom Rome was always willing to impose upon him. “Choose from those who know about the subject best, my son. Never mind about those old men that Rome will send to spy on you.” He remembered the last words of his father. “And, never ever think twice before taking a decision that you think is right”.
These advisors were the ones who advised him to support that ambitious French Bishop Bertrand de Got as pope when everyone else was asking him to support the Italian pretender. They assured that in his way, a Frenchman would reign over the holy sea, and he would reign over that Frenchman. In short, he would reign over the papacy, the dream of every monarch in Europe.
That is why he was thinking so hard at this lovely night, when every noble of his realm enjoying their mistresses. In the end, he wiped his forehead, and massaged his blonde beard. He had thought about it long and hard and it was the time to take a decision. “Loumierre”, he shouted as he came out of his room. The head of his palace guards came rushing to him, “Your command is equal to the command of Christ to us, My Lord”. “Ask Guy to come to me. I have a letter to send to the holy sea.”
That was one of the moments that would change the history of Europe. Philip the fare, King of France, neck deep in debts to the templar Knights who happened to be the biggest bankers and financiers in the Western World at the time, would ensure that his creditors would cease to exist.
King Philip the fare, in his letter, accused the templar Knights of heresy which included accusations of rejecting the divinity of Jesus and taking part in satanic worshipping rituals. The pope who owed his throne to that of Philip, had to remove the protection of papacy that had saved the templar Knights from the wrath of many sovereigns in Europe in the past.
Within days the Templar Knights will be arrested, tortured, forced to accept the charges against them and later being burnt at the stakes. All their properties and lands and title deeds which they had accumulated throughout decades would be confiscated. This will happen not only in France but later all over Europe. Within decades, a prestigious and rich order like the templar Knights will largely be swept into the dust grains of history.
Now looking at the current financial troubles in Europe, one wonders whether a troubled leader may rekindle the spirit of Philip the fare, if he wants so desperately to get out of his debts.
Philip the fair, King of France, was thinking about a possible solution to find enough funds to ensure he could continue to fight his enemies. After fighting for years, not only his coffers were almost empty but he owed a lot of money to the main financer of the day, the templar Knights.
King Philip had tried other methods to gather the funds. He had kicked out the Jews from his Kingdom and seized their properties. He over taxed his nobles. He even offered the Knights templar to unite with a group of Knights favorable to him and join together in a larger group with him at the top, only to be rejected by the Knights.
What was most problematic for him was being in neck deep in debts. He owed so much to the templar Knights that not even he, one of the most powerful monarchs in Christendom could think about repaying them in his lifetime.
He could not do much against the templar Knights since they were protected under the Pope’s authority. “Ohh … papacy, those old monks from that abomination called Rome, ruling the whole World through the turning of their rosaries. Why should a sovereign King send his best men to fight and die on behalf of those old men? So that those old men would continue to demand more tributes from the Monarchs who must as a result burden his nobles and barons with more taxes? Is that the reason those old men continue to blackmail the sovereign monarchs with hell till eternity?” He continued to be agitated as he continued to think on those lines.
He never liked either those templar Knights or those half-baked, old popes. He had refused to fight the enemies of pope before. He even had went as far as publicly burning the bull of one of the popes some years back.
Thankfully he had played his hands right. He was sure that no other monarch would come to the aid of that pope Bonafice whose bull he burnt in public , once he attacked him , since no one was ready to shed their bloods for a conspiring , delusional old man like that Pope Bonafice VIII.
He acted on what his instinct was and he was right. When his men kidnapped the pope Bonafice VIII and locked him up, no significant European Monarch send armies to fight him.
How empty was the last look of that Bonafice VII, that old haggard who had the temerity to excommunicate him, Philippe le Bel. That old monk, had threatened that he will burn in hellfire till eternity yet that representative of God on earth could not protect himself to be kidnapped and locked away, like a child.
That last look of that pope reminded him of himself, once when he was young; he had fallen inside a well while riding a new white stead. He was thinking about riding through those lush, green fields for conquering Jerusalem and suddenly he heard a large thud and the next moment he could only remember, he was inside that well. No lights, there. Knee deep in water he could not think about anything for seconds. He never knew before what it meant to be knee deep in cold water. Thank heavens, his riding aides were behind.
He chuckled and clenched his fist upwards as if he was gesturing to the Almighty about how he treated that pope Bonafice, God’s representative on earth. He thought he had returned a favor to that Monarch up in the heavens.
He knew he needed to do something about those templar Knights if he wanted the money for fighting his wars. His legal advisors had been advising him to do something exactly on that regard. How right was he to select as his advisors real legal experts and not those old monks whom Rome was always willing to impose upon him. “Choose from those who know about the subject best, my son. Never mind about those old men that Rome will send to spy on you.” He remembered the last words of his father. “And, never ever think twice before taking a decision that you think is right”.
These advisors were the ones who advised him to support that ambitious French Bishop Bertrand de Got as pope when everyone else was asking him to support the Italian pretender. They assured that in his way, a Frenchman would reign over the holy sea, and he would reign over that Frenchman. In short, he would reign over the papacy, the dream of every monarch in Europe.
That is why he was thinking so hard at this lovely night, when every noble of his realm enjoying their mistresses. In the end, he wiped his forehead, and massaged his blonde beard. He had thought about it long and hard and it was the time to take a decision. “Loumierre”, he shouted as he came out of his room. The head of his palace guards came rushing to him, “Your command is equal to the command of Christ to us, My Lord”. “Ask Guy to come to me. I have a letter to send to the holy sea.”
That was one of the moments that would change the history of Europe. Philip the fare, King of France, neck deep in debts to the templar Knights who happened to be the biggest bankers and financiers in the Western World at the time, would ensure that his creditors would cease to exist.
King Philip the fare, in his letter, accused the templar Knights of heresy which included accusations of rejecting the divinity of Jesus and taking part in satanic worshipping rituals. The pope who owed his throne to that of Philip, had to remove the protection of papacy that had saved the templar Knights from the wrath of many sovereigns in Europe in the past.
Within days the Templar Knights will be arrested, tortured, forced to accept the charges against them and later being burnt at the stakes. All their properties and lands and title deeds which they had accumulated throughout decades would be confiscated. This will happen not only in France but later all over Europe. Within decades, a prestigious and rich order like the templar Knights will largely be swept into the dust grains of history.
Now looking at the current financial troubles in Europe, one wonders whether a troubled leader may rekindle the spirit of Philip the fare, if he wants so desperately to get out of his debts.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
A clash of two victimisms
As the popular movements continue to sweep the whole Arab World, the familiar rivalry continues between Israel and Iran.
This is not that arrived yesterday. When Israel first came into being, Israeli leader David Ben Gurion, in order to offset the Arab opposition and rejection of Israel, emphasized closer ties with major non-Arab peoples in the region. These included having generally good ties with Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia.
Both Iran and Turkey were under largely pro-Western regimes i.e. Turkey under the Kemalist elite and Iran under the jack boot of the Pahlavi dynasty.
Both regimes largely accommodated all major Western interests in the region. Keeping a distance away from Kremlin, being nice to Israel and particularly in the case of Iran the terms of vassalage meant selling cheap oil to its Western clients.
Yet it was the Iranians who were the first to opt out of this arrangement. When the Iranians booted out the Shah regime from power, it not only inaugurated a new political element in the region but ensured something very interesting in the region.
The Islamic republic of Iran wanted the acknowledgement of the West of its sovereignty.
It wanted to continue to sell her oil to the West but in its own terms. It also did not want to do anything with Israel which the Iranians considered to be oppressive and usurper of the rights of indigenous Palestinians.
Thus began the rivalry between Iran and Israel.
Two peoples, two unique victimhoods
Iran and Israel may have been at each other’s throats for last few decades yet these two nations’ current political systems have tremendous similarities between them in terms of their respective purposes and coming into beings.
Israel was born out of the crematoriums of the holocaust. The Zionist ideology was born out of a sense of fear of the European Jews who thought they will be assimilated into the culture of the Goyim West. It was the ideology of a people who long considered themselves victimized in perpetuity for who they were … “the chosen people of G_D” The struggle for Israel is thereby the struggle of a people who considers themselves eternal victims of the jealousy and hatred of others for their election by G_D.
The Islamic republic of Iran also considers itself a victim. Iranians consider themselves the victims of the greed of a materialistic Western civilization which wants to exploit Iran’s material resources on terms which are strictly unfavorable to Iran. The Islamic revolutionaries also consider believe the Iranian culture to be a victim of the promiscuous and permissive culture of the West.
History supports the views of Iranian Islamic revolutionaries. When Mohammad Mossadegh nationalized the Oil industry and kicked out the British oil interests, the first Iranian leader to do so, he was unceremoniously sacked in a coup inspired and financed by the USA and UK.
What followed was 26 years of brutal suppression of the Iranian people’s wish to be free and sovereign under the Shah regime, imposed and encouraged by the West. The Shah regime allowed Iranian women to show off their bodies to whoever they would like to, but took away the rights of the Iranian people to be free.
However the most important inspiration of the Islamic republic is the martyrdom of Imam Hussein at Karbala , a millennium ago. From that time, the followers of Imam Hussein take inspiration from the fact that Imam Hussein refused to bow down to the dictates of the tyrannical and illegitimate ruler Yezid.
The followers of Hussein from that very day consider death more preferable than bowing to the dictates of what they consider arrogant and tyrants.
The Islamic republic also considers itself another Hussein fighting for its sovereignty and that of other unfortunate people like the Palestinians against the arrogant and tyrannical West.
The Islamic republic knows the consequences of its non-compliance to the current international system brings in economic sanctions, cyber attacks like that of Stuxnet variety, sabotage of its infrastructure and even assassinations of some its best scientists.
Still it remains unafraid. Iran considers its right to have a nuclear program as befitting a sovereign people and is willing to fight for that right which the current international system wants to take away from it.
This is probably the reason the Iranians did not use chemical weapons against their Iraqi enemies despite having that option. Iran believed it was fighting another Yezid in Saddam who was using those very same Chemical weapons against Iran, supplied by the West. Iran considered Chemical weapons against the conventions of war and decided not to use it despite losing thousands to those weapons.
Similarly, the Iranian supreme leader continues to veto the option of building of the nuclear bombs despite having the option to do so when almost every security analyst in the World including some Israelis think they will be justified to do so.
The world awaits another Karbala.
This is not that arrived yesterday. When Israel first came into being, Israeli leader David Ben Gurion, in order to offset the Arab opposition and rejection of Israel, emphasized closer ties with major non-Arab peoples in the region. These included having generally good ties with Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia.
Both Iran and Turkey were under largely pro-Western regimes i.e. Turkey under the Kemalist elite and Iran under the jack boot of the Pahlavi dynasty.
Both regimes largely accommodated all major Western interests in the region. Keeping a distance away from Kremlin, being nice to Israel and particularly in the case of Iran the terms of vassalage meant selling cheap oil to its Western clients.
Yet it was the Iranians who were the first to opt out of this arrangement. When the Iranians booted out the Shah regime from power, it not only inaugurated a new political element in the region but ensured something very interesting in the region.
The Islamic republic of Iran wanted the acknowledgement of the West of its sovereignty.
It wanted to continue to sell her oil to the West but in its own terms. It also did not want to do anything with Israel which the Iranians considered to be oppressive and usurper of the rights of indigenous Palestinians.
Thus began the rivalry between Iran and Israel.
Two peoples, two unique victimhoods
Iran and Israel may have been at each other’s throats for last few decades yet these two nations’ current political systems have tremendous similarities between them in terms of their respective purposes and coming into beings.
Israel was born out of the crematoriums of the holocaust. The Zionist ideology was born out of a sense of fear of the European Jews who thought they will be assimilated into the culture of the Goyim West. It was the ideology of a people who long considered themselves victimized in perpetuity for who they were … “the chosen people of G_D” The struggle for Israel is thereby the struggle of a people who considers themselves eternal victims of the jealousy and hatred of others for their election by G_D.
The Islamic republic of Iran also considers itself a victim. Iranians consider themselves the victims of the greed of a materialistic Western civilization which wants to exploit Iran’s material resources on terms which are strictly unfavorable to Iran. The Islamic revolutionaries also consider believe the Iranian culture to be a victim of the promiscuous and permissive culture of the West.
History supports the views of Iranian Islamic revolutionaries. When Mohammad Mossadegh nationalized the Oil industry and kicked out the British oil interests, the first Iranian leader to do so, he was unceremoniously sacked in a coup inspired and financed by the USA and UK.
What followed was 26 years of brutal suppression of the Iranian people’s wish to be free and sovereign under the Shah regime, imposed and encouraged by the West. The Shah regime allowed Iranian women to show off their bodies to whoever they would like to, but took away the rights of the Iranian people to be free.
However the most important inspiration of the Islamic republic is the martyrdom of Imam Hussein at Karbala , a millennium ago. From that time, the followers of Imam Hussein take inspiration from the fact that Imam Hussein refused to bow down to the dictates of the tyrannical and illegitimate ruler Yezid.
The followers of Hussein from that very day consider death more preferable than bowing to the dictates of what they consider arrogant and tyrants.
The Islamic republic also considers itself another Hussein fighting for its sovereignty and that of other unfortunate people like the Palestinians against the arrogant and tyrannical West.
The Islamic republic knows the consequences of its non-compliance to the current international system brings in economic sanctions, cyber attacks like that of Stuxnet variety, sabotage of its infrastructure and even assassinations of some its best scientists.
Still it remains unafraid. Iran considers its right to have a nuclear program as befitting a sovereign people and is willing to fight for that right which the current international system wants to take away from it.
This is probably the reason the Iranians did not use chemical weapons against their Iraqi enemies despite having that option. Iran believed it was fighting another Yezid in Saddam who was using those very same Chemical weapons against Iran, supplied by the West. Iran considered Chemical weapons against the conventions of war and decided not to use it despite losing thousands to those weapons.
Similarly, the Iranian supreme leader continues to veto the option of building of the nuclear bombs despite having the option to do so when almost every security analyst in the World including some Israelis think they will be justified to do so.
The world awaits another Karbala.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Anxious eagle , patient dragon
The thunders of the coming chill
The recent declarations by president Obama during the recent ASEAN summit implying that “America is back” is reminiscent of an ageing rock star who after conquering the World with his voice had given in to inertia , leisure , drugs and booze and had held himself very firmly in the clutches of hubris and arrogance. Suddenly a new youngster arises in the horizon and the ageing rock star has to swing back into action, if only to redeem himself in his own eyes.
This particular metaphor of an ageing rock star suits the recent American exhortations against the rising China very aptly. America after her victory in the cold war took a break from observing mundane World events by thinking that the wheels of history had come to a standstill.
America probably thought as a global sheriff, the rest of the World would continue to put up with her “norms and regulations” till “the kingdom come”. However, history had other ideas.
If 9/11 did challenge American assumptions of eternal security at home, the rise of China makes her feel her global economic overlord ship being threatened.
After the shock of 9/11, America quickly went to action in Iraq and Afghanistan, convinced that she could rebuild the region into “peaceful democracies” as she did after the conclusion of the Second World War.
A decade on from the events of 9/11 West Asia has defied American wish. The recent revolutions notwithstanding one thing is clear from the events in the Muslim World , the people in this extremely diverse and complex region wants to live according to their own ideals and identities and not by the allure of any models that America thinks best fits the region.
In the meantime, China has marched forward by taking giant leaps throughout the decade. China is the fastest growing economy in the World and soon to be predicted to overtake America, thereby ensuring that for the first time in last three centuries whereby a nation not using the Roman alphabet would be on top of the Economic value chain of the World.
America on the other hand, has seen her own economic dreams and foundations crumbling through the massive amount of debts that she incurred in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the differences between the have’s and have-not’s expanding ever so surely.
This ensures that America has to lash out to the Chinese that her authority is not yet over. She has to signal to her ever-so weary allies in Asia that she still means business and can make things happen. This explains the recent thunder of Mr. Obama in Asia. As the thunder reverberates across the World, the World is holding its breath as it can feel the coming chill of another cold war.
The man considered “World’s most wanted” till may, 2011 and currently lying at the bottom of the Indian Ocean would probably feel justified. After all he was the one to say “everyone goes for the strong horse”
Anxious eagle; patient dragon
Unlike the previous one, this coming cold war has got different motives. In the previous one both the Soviets and their American counterparts believed in remaking the man in their own images. In short, it was a war for ideas and influence.
In this current version of the old product unlike the Soviets, Chinese are not talking about remaking the World in their own images. Historically, China has never ever been very comfortable in remaking other societies. Nurtured in the environment of Confucian thought, China thinks more about securing its material interests and looks for self-sufficiency more than winning over converts and remaking foreign societies.
There was a time when China seriously looked into exporting her ideals beyond her boundaries. That was the time of Chairman Mao. But ever since the death of Chairman Mao, like many of his ideas, China has shelved the idea of missionary propagation of ideals.
Modern China wants to be successful and rich. Instead of thinking of winning converts in foreign lands, China thinks about purchasing their minerals and selling them cheap Chinese goods. China now days talks more in terms of trade surpluses and infrastructure investments and less in terms of “classless society” or “encircling cities through villages”.
It is this recent Chinese success in generating more and more wealth and its never ending pursuit of more wealth and influence that has put the existing superpower of the World in this anxious and ready-to-leap-into-action mode. Henceforth, America talks about ensuring China knows her place in the current global system of rules and regulations and that forces president Obama to place marines in Australia.
If we do a SWOT analysis of both the belligerents in this emerging new cold war, we can see the main weapons of America in her kitty are well… her advanced and superior military weapons systems and her continuous ability to send her armies all over the globe in rapid quick timings ensuring her enemies and adversaries are always on their toes.
America also leads China in terms of cultural attractiveness. Millions of people from all over the World dream to go to American shores and make it big notwithstanding what the tea-partiers and occupiers-of-wall-street have to say. According to a recent report, even a lot of newly-rich in China wants to educate their kids in America.
But China has got a much bigger advantage which counts most in the real World. She has a fat and ever-increasingly fatter checkbook. Even America looks to China as her biggest foreign investor since Chinese own the most number of American government bonds in the whole World.
Another of China’s advantage is that since it does not look into the political belief of its prospective trade partners as long as they are ready to trade on China’s terms, it can trade with almost any one in the World barring a few small statelets in the Pacific who are still prepared to recognize Taiwan as the “real China”.
This allows China to do business with countries that may be at each other’s throats all the time. China can be the biggest trade partner of India at one hand and the “all-weather friend” of Pakistan on the other. China can purchase oil from Iran and at the same time purchase more oil from Saudi Arabia and weapons from Israel. China can be the last port of call for North Korea whereas ink a free-trade pact with South Korea.
America can never do this since unlike China, America still thinks the World in terms of allies and rogue states. As America continues to belief in her own exceptionalism, she would need a never-ending pool of enemies to justify the righteousness of herself to her own eyes.
This is a beneficial factor for China. It can hope to nurture ties with regimes in Sudan, North Korea, Pakistan, Venezuela and Iran whom America sees as the “rule-breakers-of-the-international-system” and continue to get material and strategic benefits from them.
With its fatter checkbook, China can hope to lure rich and talented from the Western world into its fold considering the recent antagonisms facing the super-rich in America and in general rich in the Western world.
If the rich in the Western world decides that their own governments are conspiring to tax them so that the have-nots in the Western world can have some more badly-needed money then they may very well decide to vote with their feet alongside their checkbooks.
There is one country which they will definitely consider at that moment and that is China.
The rich in the Western World if they ever happen to migrate in a country like China will be happy in the sense that they do not need to spend billions of dollars in lobbying efforts as well as keeping the politicians in line in a country like China with no elections.
In short, America is anxious about her future status as the “indispensable nation” while China waits patiently; sharpening her tools and making sure others know it.
The coming cold war will certainly be an interesting affair alike the previous one.
The recent declarations by president Obama during the recent ASEAN summit implying that “America is back” is reminiscent of an ageing rock star who after conquering the World with his voice had given in to inertia , leisure , drugs and booze and had held himself very firmly in the clutches of hubris and arrogance. Suddenly a new youngster arises in the horizon and the ageing rock star has to swing back into action, if only to redeem himself in his own eyes.
This particular metaphor of an ageing rock star suits the recent American exhortations against the rising China very aptly. America after her victory in the cold war took a break from observing mundane World events by thinking that the wheels of history had come to a standstill.
America probably thought as a global sheriff, the rest of the World would continue to put up with her “norms and regulations” till “the kingdom come”. However, history had other ideas.
If 9/11 did challenge American assumptions of eternal security at home, the rise of China makes her feel her global economic overlord ship being threatened.
After the shock of 9/11, America quickly went to action in Iraq and Afghanistan, convinced that she could rebuild the region into “peaceful democracies” as she did after the conclusion of the Second World War.
A decade on from the events of 9/11 West Asia has defied American wish. The recent revolutions notwithstanding one thing is clear from the events in the Muslim World , the people in this extremely diverse and complex region wants to live according to their own ideals and identities and not by the allure of any models that America thinks best fits the region.
In the meantime, China has marched forward by taking giant leaps throughout the decade. China is the fastest growing economy in the World and soon to be predicted to overtake America, thereby ensuring that for the first time in last three centuries whereby a nation not using the Roman alphabet would be on top of the Economic value chain of the World.
America on the other hand, has seen her own economic dreams and foundations crumbling through the massive amount of debts that she incurred in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the differences between the have’s and have-not’s expanding ever so surely.
This ensures that America has to lash out to the Chinese that her authority is not yet over. She has to signal to her ever-so weary allies in Asia that she still means business and can make things happen. This explains the recent thunder of Mr. Obama in Asia. As the thunder reverberates across the World, the World is holding its breath as it can feel the coming chill of another cold war.
The man considered “World’s most wanted” till may, 2011 and currently lying at the bottom of the Indian Ocean would probably feel justified. After all he was the one to say “everyone goes for the strong horse”
Anxious eagle; patient dragon
Unlike the previous one, this coming cold war has got different motives. In the previous one both the Soviets and their American counterparts believed in remaking the man in their own images. In short, it was a war for ideas and influence.
In this current version of the old product unlike the Soviets, Chinese are not talking about remaking the World in their own images. Historically, China has never ever been very comfortable in remaking other societies. Nurtured in the environment of Confucian thought, China thinks more about securing its material interests and looks for self-sufficiency more than winning over converts and remaking foreign societies.
There was a time when China seriously looked into exporting her ideals beyond her boundaries. That was the time of Chairman Mao. But ever since the death of Chairman Mao, like many of his ideas, China has shelved the idea of missionary propagation of ideals.
Modern China wants to be successful and rich. Instead of thinking of winning converts in foreign lands, China thinks about purchasing their minerals and selling them cheap Chinese goods. China now days talks more in terms of trade surpluses and infrastructure investments and less in terms of “classless society” or “encircling cities through villages”.
It is this recent Chinese success in generating more and more wealth and its never ending pursuit of more wealth and influence that has put the existing superpower of the World in this anxious and ready-to-leap-into-action mode. Henceforth, America talks about ensuring China knows her place in the current global system of rules and regulations and that forces president Obama to place marines in Australia.
If we do a SWOT analysis of both the belligerents in this emerging new cold war, we can see the main weapons of America in her kitty are well… her advanced and superior military weapons systems and her continuous ability to send her armies all over the globe in rapid quick timings ensuring her enemies and adversaries are always on their toes.
America also leads China in terms of cultural attractiveness. Millions of people from all over the World dream to go to American shores and make it big notwithstanding what the tea-partiers and occupiers-of-wall-street have to say. According to a recent report, even a lot of newly-rich in China wants to educate their kids in America.
But China has got a much bigger advantage which counts most in the real World. She has a fat and ever-increasingly fatter checkbook. Even America looks to China as her biggest foreign investor since Chinese own the most number of American government bonds in the whole World.
Another of China’s advantage is that since it does not look into the political belief of its prospective trade partners as long as they are ready to trade on China’s terms, it can trade with almost any one in the World barring a few small statelets in the Pacific who are still prepared to recognize Taiwan as the “real China”.
This allows China to do business with countries that may be at each other’s throats all the time. China can be the biggest trade partner of India at one hand and the “all-weather friend” of Pakistan on the other. China can purchase oil from Iran and at the same time purchase more oil from Saudi Arabia and weapons from Israel. China can be the last port of call for North Korea whereas ink a free-trade pact with South Korea.
America can never do this since unlike China, America still thinks the World in terms of allies and rogue states. As America continues to belief in her own exceptionalism, she would need a never-ending pool of enemies to justify the righteousness of herself to her own eyes.
This is a beneficial factor for China. It can hope to nurture ties with regimes in Sudan, North Korea, Pakistan, Venezuela and Iran whom America sees as the “rule-breakers-of-the-international-system” and continue to get material and strategic benefits from them.
With its fatter checkbook, China can hope to lure rich and talented from the Western world into its fold considering the recent antagonisms facing the super-rich in America and in general rich in the Western world.
If the rich in the Western world decides that their own governments are conspiring to tax them so that the have-nots in the Western world can have some more badly-needed money then they may very well decide to vote with their feet alongside their checkbooks.
There is one country which they will definitely consider at that moment and that is China.
The rich in the Western World if they ever happen to migrate in a country like China will be happy in the sense that they do not need to spend billions of dollars in lobbying efforts as well as keeping the politicians in line in a country like China with no elections.
In short, America is anxious about her future status as the “indispensable nation” while China waits patiently; sharpening her tools and making sure others know it.
The coming cold war will certainly be an interesting affair alike the previous one.
Afghan quagmire hotting up in the chill
The very recent incident whereby a number of Pakistani soldiers were killed due to “friendly fire” incidents from the air strikes called by their erstwhile NATO allies from Afghanistan is not a unique but one in a list of events between the recent love-hate relationship involving US and Pakistan.
This incident follows the Raymond Davis affair in the beginning of the year when the CIA agent Raymond Davis gunned down two ISI operatives tailing him in broad daylight in Lahore. Then came the blockbuster of the year in May when Osama Bin Laden was killed by US Nave Seals in a rundown villa in Abottabad at the stone throwing distance from the Pakistani military headquarters.
This current incident comes just days after it was revealed through rumours that the Pakistani civilian leadership may well have sought American intervention in Pakistani domestic affairs following the Bin Laden killing. To be precise, for those who are experienced about US-Pakistani relationships, there is only one way it seems the relationships can go and that is downhill.
Pakistan is considered to be a very tough assignment for any Western diplomat now days. Pakistanis are very much like their Indian counterparts. Jovial, nice, worm, friendly and excellent to do business with as Mr. Nehru found them decades back. But when it comes to contentious issues involving their honor and interests, the Pakistanis can be as difficult and uncompromising as you can get.
In other words , a Pakistani will be “a friend of friends” when they see “eye to eye” , but if their perceived interests do not match with their negotiating partner , getting something done with them can be as difficult as getting Sara Palin to run as a running mate with Mr. Obama.
You can not blame the Pakistanis for being as uncompromising when it comes to protecting their core interests. As a young Pakistani army commander, diplomat or a politician, the first thing that you see on the map is a large and hostile neighbor from East and then another hostile and unstable neighbor from West.
Since Pakistan does not possess enough resources to fight two hostile situations at the same time it makes sense for them to concentrate at one front at one time. This is the reason Pakistan faced with a hostile India at the East and a chaotic post-Soviet Afghanistan on the West, choose to build ties with the Taliban to maintain a semblance of control at its Western border.
That approach worked well for them until the twin towers came crashing down and as a consequence Pakistanis found themselves sandwiched between two superpowers; the emerging Indian superpower and the existing American hyper powers.
The Pakistani leadership was in an existential crisis in those days following nine eleven. If they said no when President Bush asked them whether they are “with us or against us?”, Pakistanis risk being bombarded to stone ages.
The Pakistanis did what was politically correct at the time. They requested their friends in Taliban to melt away into the mountains, brush up the skills of sniping and shooting which Pashtun tribesmen have perfected over centuries in fighting to stave off the foreign aggressors and wait for an opportune time to come.
Fortunately for them, that opportune time came very soon when Americans, firmly in the grip of hubris and messianic fervor after their swift success of removing the Taliban from power in Afghanistan, decided to invade Iraq and as a consequence bogged down in that country.
This ensured the return of Taliban as a force viable enough to challenge the writ of America in Afghanistan. Pakistanis though out the American involvement have maintained ties with the Taliban to ensure that they can have the ears of their Taliban allies once America withdraws and the Taliban able to fill up the vacuum of a post-America Afghanistan. This was the long-term strategic picture of Afghanistan from Pakistani viewpoint and looking from their viewpoint they were justified in sticking to it despite strong objecttions from their American allies.
Things have changed in the relationship between Pakistanis and Americans since those days of “with us or against us?” History and geography ensures that. Pakistan is the transit country through which America has to bring the vast majority (49 % by some 2011 estimates) of her military supplies into Afghanistan. If Pakistan stops those transit routes through Chaman and Torkham then the American army runs the risk of losing her life lines.
There are very few alternative options for America to ponder. Afghanistan is land locked and there are only two countries with existing port facilities through which supplies can be brought into Afghanistan. One of them is Pakistan and another is Iran. But at this point of history, the relationship between Iran and America is similar to that of Cross and Count Dracula. Afghanistan’s central Asian neighbors have been approached by America in the past and there is an existing alternative route but that option is comparatively costlier to maintain. Another important thing to consider here about the continuing existence of that route depends upon America keeping good terms with Russia and China, something American leadership has not shown perfect willingness to do with recently.
That leaves America with very little options in reality if Pakistan really decides to draw red lines to America regarding American conduct in the region. This is something the Pakistani leadership has not done previously. In the case of past violations of its sovereignty, Pakistan have threatened to withdraw from the American venture but in the end relented considering American power in the region.
Now things have changed dramatically from a geo-political perspective in the region. America’s position in Eurasia is challenged by the rising power of China and the aspiring power Russia seeking to redeem her previous glory. Iran has not relented despite strong sanctions and pressure from America. Pakistan is a vital cog in the whole equation. The recent Istanbul conference on Afghanistan saw a consensus between China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran to thwart American plans for the region. So Pakistan can be secured of the fact that they will not face regional isolation once they burn their bridges with America.
This leaves America with very few options as Spengler points out in his weekly column in Asia times. One option will be to ask India, the arch-rival of Pakistan, to come into Afghanistan with active military support. This is one option the current Indian government will be extremely reluctant to even consider; India would not like to draw herself in a similar quagmire that America finds herself now in Afghanistan and India will not like to irk China and Russia for the sake of keeping America happy.
Another option will be, as Spengler suggests, backing separatist groups in Balochistan so as to weaken the Pakistani state itself. According to Spengler, this would force the Pakistani establishment to accede to the demands of Washington.
Both these two options are fraught with dangerous repercussions. The sensible option for America will be to compensate Pakistan for the losses it has suffered and look to prepare for a possible negotiated endgame in Afghanistan whereby America can withdraw under some peace offer. But considering the upcoming election fervor as well as the pre-dominance of irreconcilable and uncompromising exceptionalist attitudes in American polity, what is sensible to the rest of the World, might not be similar to the American leadership.
Note: “Blazing saddles in Pakistan” by Spengler (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MK29Df03.html)
This incident follows the Raymond Davis affair in the beginning of the year when the CIA agent Raymond Davis gunned down two ISI operatives tailing him in broad daylight in Lahore. Then came the blockbuster of the year in May when Osama Bin Laden was killed by US Nave Seals in a rundown villa in Abottabad at the stone throwing distance from the Pakistani military headquarters.
This current incident comes just days after it was revealed through rumours that the Pakistani civilian leadership may well have sought American intervention in Pakistani domestic affairs following the Bin Laden killing. To be precise, for those who are experienced about US-Pakistani relationships, there is only one way it seems the relationships can go and that is downhill.
Pakistan is considered to be a very tough assignment for any Western diplomat now days. Pakistanis are very much like their Indian counterparts. Jovial, nice, worm, friendly and excellent to do business with as Mr. Nehru found them decades back. But when it comes to contentious issues involving their honor and interests, the Pakistanis can be as difficult and uncompromising as you can get.
In other words , a Pakistani will be “a friend of friends” when they see “eye to eye” , but if their perceived interests do not match with their negotiating partner , getting something done with them can be as difficult as getting Sara Palin to run as a running mate with Mr. Obama.
You can not blame the Pakistanis for being as uncompromising when it comes to protecting their core interests. As a young Pakistani army commander, diplomat or a politician, the first thing that you see on the map is a large and hostile neighbor from East and then another hostile and unstable neighbor from West.
Since Pakistan does not possess enough resources to fight two hostile situations at the same time it makes sense for them to concentrate at one front at one time. This is the reason Pakistan faced with a hostile India at the East and a chaotic post-Soviet Afghanistan on the West, choose to build ties with the Taliban to maintain a semblance of control at its Western border.
That approach worked well for them until the twin towers came crashing down and as a consequence Pakistanis found themselves sandwiched between two superpowers; the emerging Indian superpower and the existing American hyper powers.
The Pakistani leadership was in an existential crisis in those days following nine eleven. If they said no when President Bush asked them whether they are “with us or against us?”, Pakistanis risk being bombarded to stone ages.
The Pakistanis did what was politically correct at the time. They requested their friends in Taliban to melt away into the mountains, brush up the skills of sniping and shooting which Pashtun tribesmen have perfected over centuries in fighting to stave off the foreign aggressors and wait for an opportune time to come.
Fortunately for them, that opportune time came very soon when Americans, firmly in the grip of hubris and messianic fervor after their swift success of removing the Taliban from power in Afghanistan, decided to invade Iraq and as a consequence bogged down in that country.
This ensured the return of Taliban as a force viable enough to challenge the writ of America in Afghanistan. Pakistanis though out the American involvement have maintained ties with the Taliban to ensure that they can have the ears of their Taliban allies once America withdraws and the Taliban able to fill up the vacuum of a post-America Afghanistan. This was the long-term strategic picture of Afghanistan from Pakistani viewpoint and looking from their viewpoint they were justified in sticking to it despite strong objecttions from their American allies.
Things have changed in the relationship between Pakistanis and Americans since those days of “with us or against us?” History and geography ensures that. Pakistan is the transit country through which America has to bring the vast majority (49 % by some 2011 estimates) of her military supplies into Afghanistan. If Pakistan stops those transit routes through Chaman and Torkham then the American army runs the risk of losing her life lines.
There are very few alternative options for America to ponder. Afghanistan is land locked and there are only two countries with existing port facilities through which supplies can be brought into Afghanistan. One of them is Pakistan and another is Iran. But at this point of history, the relationship between Iran and America is similar to that of Cross and Count Dracula. Afghanistan’s central Asian neighbors have been approached by America in the past and there is an existing alternative route but that option is comparatively costlier to maintain. Another important thing to consider here about the continuing existence of that route depends upon America keeping good terms with Russia and China, something American leadership has not shown perfect willingness to do with recently.
That leaves America with very little options in reality if Pakistan really decides to draw red lines to America regarding American conduct in the region. This is something the Pakistani leadership has not done previously. In the case of past violations of its sovereignty, Pakistan have threatened to withdraw from the American venture but in the end relented considering American power in the region.
Now things have changed dramatically from a geo-political perspective in the region. America’s position in Eurasia is challenged by the rising power of China and the aspiring power Russia seeking to redeem her previous glory. Iran has not relented despite strong sanctions and pressure from America. Pakistan is a vital cog in the whole equation. The recent Istanbul conference on Afghanistan saw a consensus between China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran to thwart American plans for the region. So Pakistan can be secured of the fact that they will not face regional isolation once they burn their bridges with America.
This leaves America with very few options as Spengler points out in his weekly column in Asia times. One option will be to ask India, the arch-rival of Pakistan, to come into Afghanistan with active military support. This is one option the current Indian government will be extremely reluctant to even consider; India would not like to draw herself in a similar quagmire that America finds herself now in Afghanistan and India will not like to irk China and Russia for the sake of keeping America happy.
Another option will be, as Spengler suggests, backing separatist groups in Balochistan so as to weaken the Pakistani state itself. According to Spengler, this would force the Pakistani establishment to accede to the demands of Washington.
Both these two options are fraught with dangerous repercussions. The sensible option for America will be to compensate Pakistan for the losses it has suffered and look to prepare for a possible negotiated endgame in Afghanistan whereby America can withdraw under some peace offer. But considering the upcoming election fervor as well as the pre-dominance of irreconcilable and uncompromising exceptionalist attitudes in American polity, what is sensible to the rest of the World, might not be similar to the American leadership.
Note: “Blazing saddles in Pakistan” by Spengler (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MK29Df03.html)
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Revenge of the underdog
The new face of war in the new World
We come across it in the web pages at least some time during your normal working day, we hear it in the FM radio talk shows, and we read it in the newspapers. When we see an odd government site have been hacked by anonymous hackers or when we just feel inconvenient because our odd bank or insurance website is down for some days, we just do not feel that we are part of it. Yet very few of us realize the magnitude of it.
What we do not realize that we are in the middle of a war, a war which is being fought all around us by not using fighter jets or submarines. It is a war where we do not see or feel that this war is being fought, yet all of us are part of it whether we like it or not. This war is called Information warfare and this is the new face of warfare in this new millennium.
There are three main ways in which this war is different from other techniques of warfare. This war is faceless and expressionless in nature. You will not see any formal declaration of war or surrender ceremonies here but you will understand that you have become a part of this war only when you have become a casualty in it.
This war, because of the effects of globalization, can be and will be fought everywhere. Since information warfare involves using computer-based automated systems, this particular warfare will be fought everywhere and anywhere in this millennium since most of our day-to-day works and affairs can be and are conducted through these computer-based automated systems.
The most important factor behind this type of warfare is that it plays directly with the mind of its victim(s) by installing a perception amongst their mindsets. In our modern lives, we are increasingly becoming individualistic and whether we accept it or not some of the gifts of globalization like say our email accounts or our social-networking profiles are small versions of us, they are increasingly becoming a part of our identities. So when someone hacks your email or profile, that anonymous but powerful act gives you a feeling that you have lost a part of you to someone whom you even do not know and yet you cannot do anything about it except just changing your email id or profile.
Another aspect that we need to consider here is that, the anonymous nature of Internet has allowed people to express their views more openly without fear of reprisal. Now when someone sees his or her email id, social network profile or some other information that her considers private and valuable getting compromised, that person will never feel that sense of security which the Internet had provided him or her in the first place.
Not only individuals but even states can feel the effect of this type of warfare. One of the reasons why we accept and obey the rules of our governments is that we know it has means to hold us into account if we do not accept its rules. Now when a group of hackers hack an important government website, they not only take away its information but at the same time they take away its sources of power i.e. its power to enforce its rules. After all, when a government is not able to protect its most important and private information, how can it protect its citizens?
Revenge of the underdog
Information warfare as a technique of war can not only be very useful to its users but at the same time it can bring a lot of empowerment to those who feel themselves in what I call the David v/s Goliath scenarios of modern age.
Suppose there is a resource-rich but militarily weak state which is being on the threshold of invasion and occupation by a militarily-more powerful state and no one is coming to defend the weaker state. Now in the 20-th century warfare, the main choices before the governments included options in the range from abject surrender to guerilla warfare. With the advent of information warfare, the weaker state needs to just pinpoint some of the most vulnerable parts of the enemy’s military and civilian information infrastructure and then get them out of the way by employing its most brightest and brilliant hackers or information warriors. This is the way even a militarily weak state can bring the fear into the ranks of its much powerful enemy.
On an individual level, the new millennium has seen educated youth around the feel themselves hopeless and inconsequential to do something about their societies. The brightest amongst these youth will seek to launch their own version of Information warfare by hacking certain government websites or bringing into the notice of the public certain “classified” information. The rise of groups like wikileaks and anonymous attests to this fact. Personal and professional grudges can also result in serious incidents like a disgruntled employee hacking his company’s website.
The anonymous nature of the Internet is the most serious line of protection for the information warriors particularly the ones who use their forms of information warfare to put a social and political message to the public. The eagle-eyed government surveillance agencies may be able to find out the computers (if they are lucky and very effective) but it will be really difficult to find out exact perpetrators. This fact gives a boost to the present and would-be information warriors.
Unlike the conventional warfare, there is very little that states can do to prevent this type of warfare. A preemptive war may enable to conquer countries, but it can do very little to prevent a group of bright youngsters with computers to use information as a tool of warfare.
Governments around the World need to listen to its opponents both at home and abroad with more care and respect. Dissenting voices and viewpoints must be given the consideration and proper forums to express their grievances. As preventive measures, a must-to-do list should be widely circulated so that innocent victims of information warfare to cope up in the aftermath. Indeed that is probably the only way in the long term to manage information warfare to a certain manageable extent.
But till that time, all of us in this new millennium need to be very careful.
We come across it in the web pages at least some time during your normal working day, we hear it in the FM radio talk shows, and we read it in the newspapers. When we see an odd government site have been hacked by anonymous hackers or when we just feel inconvenient because our odd bank or insurance website is down for some days, we just do not feel that we are part of it. Yet very few of us realize the magnitude of it.
What we do not realize that we are in the middle of a war, a war which is being fought all around us by not using fighter jets or submarines. It is a war where we do not see or feel that this war is being fought, yet all of us are part of it whether we like it or not. This war is called Information warfare and this is the new face of warfare in this new millennium.
There are three main ways in which this war is different from other techniques of warfare. This war is faceless and expressionless in nature. You will not see any formal declaration of war or surrender ceremonies here but you will understand that you have become a part of this war only when you have become a casualty in it.
This war, because of the effects of globalization, can be and will be fought everywhere. Since information warfare involves using computer-based automated systems, this particular warfare will be fought everywhere and anywhere in this millennium since most of our day-to-day works and affairs can be and are conducted through these computer-based automated systems.
The most important factor behind this type of warfare is that it plays directly with the mind of its victim(s) by installing a perception amongst their mindsets. In our modern lives, we are increasingly becoming individualistic and whether we accept it or not some of the gifts of globalization like say our email accounts or our social-networking profiles are small versions of us, they are increasingly becoming a part of our identities. So when someone hacks your email or profile, that anonymous but powerful act gives you a feeling that you have lost a part of you to someone whom you even do not know and yet you cannot do anything about it except just changing your email id or profile.
Another aspect that we need to consider here is that, the anonymous nature of Internet has allowed people to express their views more openly without fear of reprisal. Now when someone sees his or her email id, social network profile or some other information that her considers private and valuable getting compromised, that person will never feel that sense of security which the Internet had provided him or her in the first place.
Not only individuals but even states can feel the effect of this type of warfare. One of the reasons why we accept and obey the rules of our governments is that we know it has means to hold us into account if we do not accept its rules. Now when a group of hackers hack an important government website, they not only take away its information but at the same time they take away its sources of power i.e. its power to enforce its rules. After all, when a government is not able to protect its most important and private information, how can it protect its citizens?
Revenge of the underdog
Information warfare as a technique of war can not only be very useful to its users but at the same time it can bring a lot of empowerment to those who feel themselves in what I call the David v/s Goliath scenarios of modern age.
Suppose there is a resource-rich but militarily weak state which is being on the threshold of invasion and occupation by a militarily-more powerful state and no one is coming to defend the weaker state. Now in the 20-th century warfare, the main choices before the governments included options in the range from abject surrender to guerilla warfare. With the advent of information warfare, the weaker state needs to just pinpoint some of the most vulnerable parts of the enemy’s military and civilian information infrastructure and then get them out of the way by employing its most brightest and brilliant hackers or information warriors. This is the way even a militarily weak state can bring the fear into the ranks of its much powerful enemy.
On an individual level, the new millennium has seen educated youth around the feel themselves hopeless and inconsequential to do something about their societies. The brightest amongst these youth will seek to launch their own version of Information warfare by hacking certain government websites or bringing into the notice of the public certain “classified” information. The rise of groups like wikileaks and anonymous attests to this fact. Personal and professional grudges can also result in serious incidents like a disgruntled employee hacking his company’s website.
The anonymous nature of the Internet is the most serious line of protection for the information warriors particularly the ones who use their forms of information warfare to put a social and political message to the public. The eagle-eyed government surveillance agencies may be able to find out the computers (if they are lucky and very effective) but it will be really difficult to find out exact perpetrators. This fact gives a boost to the present and would-be information warriors.
Unlike the conventional warfare, there is very little that states can do to prevent this type of warfare. A preemptive war may enable to conquer countries, but it can do very little to prevent a group of bright youngsters with computers to use information as a tool of warfare.
Governments around the World need to listen to its opponents both at home and abroad with more care and respect. Dissenting voices and viewpoints must be given the consideration and proper forums to express their grievances. As preventive measures, a must-to-do list should be widely circulated so that innocent victims of information warfare to cope up in the aftermath. Indeed that is probably the only way in the long term to manage information warfare to a certain manageable extent.
But till that time, all of us in this new millennium need to be very careful.
Where Sri Lanka beats India
The end of the year is also a time for report-cards and end-year-appraisals. It is an opportunity to assess how we did as students, employees as well as nations. This week saw two organizations, United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and Legatum coming up with their own rankings about how the countries of the World have been doing so far in this year in terms of prosperity.
As a person who lives and works in South-Asia, I must say that the overall rankings for the region are depressing in both the rankings.
By the Legatum ratings, amongst 22 countries in Asia which have been considered for these rankings, South Asian countries come at the bottom-most part and out of 5 South Asian countries that have been considered for these rankings, 4 of them are amongst the bottom 5. To summarize, countries of this region are members of a club whose membership is most undesired. But these rankings are remarkable in another aspect.
We in India, generally consider ourselves as the “undisputed champion” when it comes to South Asia. After all, we are the biggest of the lot in terms of size and manpower as well as in terms of overall economy. We are also supposedly the most stable and mature country in the region in terms of democracy and civil society. We happen to produce number of billionaires and Bollywood blockbusters in the region and most important of all to an average Indian, did we not just won the World Cup?
But according to the two rating agencies that I have mentioned in the beginning, we are not the numero uno in terms of prosperity in our own South Asian region. Ironically, it is those hapless Islanders from Lanka whom we so thoroughly defeated in the World cup final seemingly have defeated us to take the numero uno crown in both the UNDP and Legatum rankings. Those of my fellow citizens who would be already thinking about the biasness involved behind these ranking systems (like we regularly fume after the publication of each ICC rankings) , let me state the fact that the Islanders may live in a tiny country but they have been defeating us in these prosperity rankings for last few years now.
According to the Legatum rankings, India, despite producing most number of billionaires in the region, trails behind Sri Lanka and even our bete noire Pakistan in terms of Entrepreneurship and Opportunity. India is at the unenviable 90-th position in the rankings for this category whereas the Islanders are at the 75-th position and the Pakistanis are at 86-th position.
If we go into the details, the picture becomes more depressing. It seems from the reports that it is much easier to start up a new business in Sri Lanka than in India. Average costs for starting a new business in terms of per capita national income, is much lesser in Sri Lanka (5.4%) compared to India (at 57%). 98% of Sri Lankans surveyed in 2010 think that hard work enables people to get ahead in life, the second highest proportion in the Index whereas only 85% of people in India think on similar lines, according to the report.
In terms of health, social capital, education and personal freedom rankings, India trails behind our Lankan neighbors in all these indicators.
So the bottom line is that we may have defeated the Emerald Islanders in the Cup final, but they beat us hands down in most indicators of national prosperity.
Note:
1. http://www.prosperity.com/
2. http://hdr.undp.org/en/
As a person who lives and works in South-Asia, I must say that the overall rankings for the region are depressing in both the rankings.
By the Legatum ratings, amongst 22 countries in Asia which have been considered for these rankings, South Asian countries come at the bottom-most part and out of 5 South Asian countries that have been considered for these rankings, 4 of them are amongst the bottom 5. To summarize, countries of this region are members of a club whose membership is most undesired. But these rankings are remarkable in another aspect.
We in India, generally consider ourselves as the “undisputed champion” when it comes to South Asia. After all, we are the biggest of the lot in terms of size and manpower as well as in terms of overall economy. We are also supposedly the most stable and mature country in the region in terms of democracy and civil society. We happen to produce number of billionaires and Bollywood blockbusters in the region and most important of all to an average Indian, did we not just won the World Cup?
But according to the two rating agencies that I have mentioned in the beginning, we are not the numero uno in terms of prosperity in our own South Asian region. Ironically, it is those hapless Islanders from Lanka whom we so thoroughly defeated in the World cup final seemingly have defeated us to take the numero uno crown in both the UNDP and Legatum rankings. Those of my fellow citizens who would be already thinking about the biasness involved behind these ranking systems (like we regularly fume after the publication of each ICC rankings) , let me state the fact that the Islanders may live in a tiny country but they have been defeating us in these prosperity rankings for last few years now.
According to the Legatum rankings, India, despite producing most number of billionaires in the region, trails behind Sri Lanka and even our bete noire Pakistan in terms of Entrepreneurship and Opportunity. India is at the unenviable 90-th position in the rankings for this category whereas the Islanders are at the 75-th position and the Pakistanis are at 86-th position.
If we go into the details, the picture becomes more depressing. It seems from the reports that it is much easier to start up a new business in Sri Lanka than in India. Average costs for starting a new business in terms of per capita national income, is much lesser in Sri Lanka (5.4%) compared to India (at 57%). 98% of Sri Lankans surveyed in 2010 think that hard work enables people to get ahead in life, the second highest proportion in the Index whereas only 85% of people in India think on similar lines, according to the report.
In terms of health, social capital, education and personal freedom rankings, India trails behind our Lankan neighbors in all these indicators.
So the bottom line is that we may have defeated the Emerald Islanders in the Cup final, but they beat us hands down in most indicators of national prosperity.
Note:
1. http://www.prosperity.com/
2. http://hdr.undp.org/en/
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Foresight and Indian policy making
Parag Khanna is probably not a very renowned name in India. Recently this renowned American foreign policy expert, came into news after making a quite interesting proposal that the United States should look more towards Latin America than Asia in the new millennium in order to rebuild American economic influence and another very creative part of his idea was that America could think about whether “the $100 billion IT outsourcing industry could be brought back from India into the United States' time zones”.
Now this can at best be considered as a very creative idea albeit with one significant hindrance. After all India is more or less an English-speaking country thanks to our colonial legacy whereas most of Latin America is still very much Spanish and Portuguese speaking region. So until and unless the United States of America turns into a Spanish-speaking majority nation (as most recent demographic studies suggest it would become so probably at the end of this century due to higher birthrates amongst the Americans from the Latino background), India can pretty much feel comfortable of continuing to reap the advantage of being home to one of the largest number of English-speakers outside Britain.
However it is always safe to be sorry in some respects. What should be our Plan-B if the creative idea, floated by Mr. Khanna , does indeed come to reality one day ?
One of the challenges of being an expert in foreign policy is to conjure up unpleasant and previously unthinkable scenarios and try to find out possible solutions so that if the threat really comes to pass, there is a fitting response.
Pro-activeness is something that our grand old Indian policy making establishment can not be blamed to possess too much of. And they do not have any reason to practice it too much in terms of policy making so far in this new millennium.
Historically, the two biggest factors that determine how a country’s establishment looks at its foreign policy are the perception or presence of threats from outside and the willingness to expand a country’s interests and influences.
In the case of India, fortunately we live in a time of history where there is no strong power in our neighborhood, which is at present engaged in a policy to endanger our existence or our interests. This is the main reason that the Indian establishment seem to be always comfortable in “leading from behind” when it comes to major foreign policy initiatives in the 21-st century.
It is true that our diplomats and ministers are invited into major international forums around the World like Davos and numerous conferences on the future of Afghanistan but when it comes to real discussions and decision making to determine the outcome of any important political process of global significance, India seem to be very much in the “leading from behind” mode.
The Indian establishment cannot be blamed for this state of mind. After all, “leading from behind” has not hurt India in any real terms and is not India a IT-superpower and are not the American arms manufacturers coming running to India for possible purchases? So, if India is getting so much without being pre-active why should India think differently?
Well one big lesson of history is that even entrenched situations can change overnight and those who are not ready to accommodate and prepare themselves to the changes of history, pay dearly for it. Take the example of those investors, who have put all their money into purchasing the Russian Czarist bonds prior to the First World War and they went bankrupt rapidly when that government itself collapsed in the course of war and revolutions.
Now coming back to the idea of Mr. Khanna , suppose if India losses its $100 Billion US-outsourcing market what could be the other options that India should look at ?
A very tried and trusted method in this regard is diversifying. However in this case, finding out other different markets may not be that easy. The two other markets that can be comparable to America are the EU and China. Now, Europe is a diverse continent with diverse set of cultures, languages and thanks to the current EU leaders, more complex set of stringent rules and regulations. In other words, Indian Software bigwigs will not have that easy to penetrate into the European market with such ease as with America due to these very reasons. China is altogether a different story whereby Indian private companies would have to face direct competition from their Chinese counterparts backed by the Chinese government , looking to protect and nurture its own domestic IT services industry and probably rightly so from a Chinese viewpoint.
So that narrows down our options to catering software products to the customers in our very own country. India does have a growing population and majority of it still live in abject poverty and backwardness but thanks to the modern revolution of cellular phones, creating innovative products for this otherwise under estimated market could be the “next big thing” for our Software industry. There are more than many million Indians who do fall under $2 dollar income category. Our entrepreneurs and ideators can think about catering basic services to these people through the cell phone technology and still being able to profit from it considering the hugeness of the market.
So as Mr. Khanna advises his fellow Americans to look closer to home, we should also follow his advice and look at our own countrymen to prepare ourselves for any possible fallouts in case the countrymen of Mr. Khanna do consider his ideas seriously.
Note: “Look South, not east” by Parag Khanna (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/11/11/look_south_not_east)
Now this can at best be considered as a very creative idea albeit with one significant hindrance. After all India is more or less an English-speaking country thanks to our colonial legacy whereas most of Latin America is still very much Spanish and Portuguese speaking region. So until and unless the United States of America turns into a Spanish-speaking majority nation (as most recent demographic studies suggest it would become so probably at the end of this century due to higher birthrates amongst the Americans from the Latino background), India can pretty much feel comfortable of continuing to reap the advantage of being home to one of the largest number of English-speakers outside Britain.
However it is always safe to be sorry in some respects. What should be our Plan-B if the creative idea, floated by Mr. Khanna , does indeed come to reality one day ?
One of the challenges of being an expert in foreign policy is to conjure up unpleasant and previously unthinkable scenarios and try to find out possible solutions so that if the threat really comes to pass, there is a fitting response.
Pro-activeness is something that our grand old Indian policy making establishment can not be blamed to possess too much of. And they do not have any reason to practice it too much in terms of policy making so far in this new millennium.
Historically, the two biggest factors that determine how a country’s establishment looks at its foreign policy are the perception or presence of threats from outside and the willingness to expand a country’s interests and influences.
In the case of India, fortunately we live in a time of history where there is no strong power in our neighborhood, which is at present engaged in a policy to endanger our existence or our interests. This is the main reason that the Indian establishment seem to be always comfortable in “leading from behind” when it comes to major foreign policy initiatives in the 21-st century.
It is true that our diplomats and ministers are invited into major international forums around the World like Davos and numerous conferences on the future of Afghanistan but when it comes to real discussions and decision making to determine the outcome of any important political process of global significance, India seem to be very much in the “leading from behind” mode.
The Indian establishment cannot be blamed for this state of mind. After all, “leading from behind” has not hurt India in any real terms and is not India a IT-superpower and are not the American arms manufacturers coming running to India for possible purchases? So, if India is getting so much without being pre-active why should India think differently?
Well one big lesson of history is that even entrenched situations can change overnight and those who are not ready to accommodate and prepare themselves to the changes of history, pay dearly for it. Take the example of those investors, who have put all their money into purchasing the Russian Czarist bonds prior to the First World War and they went bankrupt rapidly when that government itself collapsed in the course of war and revolutions.
Now coming back to the idea of Mr. Khanna , suppose if India losses its $100 Billion US-outsourcing market what could be the other options that India should look at ?
A very tried and trusted method in this regard is diversifying. However in this case, finding out other different markets may not be that easy. The two other markets that can be comparable to America are the EU and China. Now, Europe is a diverse continent with diverse set of cultures, languages and thanks to the current EU leaders, more complex set of stringent rules and regulations. In other words, Indian Software bigwigs will not have that easy to penetrate into the European market with such ease as with America due to these very reasons. China is altogether a different story whereby Indian private companies would have to face direct competition from their Chinese counterparts backed by the Chinese government , looking to protect and nurture its own domestic IT services industry and probably rightly so from a Chinese viewpoint.
So that narrows down our options to catering software products to the customers in our very own country. India does have a growing population and majority of it still live in abject poverty and backwardness but thanks to the modern revolution of cellular phones, creating innovative products for this otherwise under estimated market could be the “next big thing” for our Software industry. There are more than many million Indians who do fall under $2 dollar income category. Our entrepreneurs and ideators can think about catering basic services to these people through the cell phone technology and still being able to profit from it considering the hugeness of the market.
So as Mr. Khanna advises his fellow Americans to look closer to home, we should also follow his advice and look at our own countrymen to prepare ourselves for any possible fallouts in case the countrymen of Mr. Khanna do consider his ideas seriously.
Note: “Look South, not east” by Parag Khanna (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/11/11/look_south_not_east)
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Another forgotten aniversary
Forgetting an important date is not too difficult for us. Very often we forget our important meetings, the birthdays of our friends and relatives whom we do not get to meet often thanks to the hustles of the modern life, more often than not we even forget to just pick up the cell phone from our pockets and give a call to a long-ago school or college friend who may be living the next neighborhood, an acquaintance with whom we may have worked just six months back or to some old uncle and aunty just to give them a reminder that they exist in our increasingly sinking universes.
Remembering an event which took place a century is probably a more difficult task to perform. After all this age is the “age of breaking news” whereby we do not even remember the most significant event that took place a week or two back , leave aside what happened a century back. This year was significant in terms of anniversary since this was the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 i.e. World trade centre attacks, an event with great significance, remembrance and tragedy. Yet this year also marks the century of another tragic event which has got very little remembrance until now.
The year was 1911 and the day was 25-th March and the place was Asch Building, at 23-29 Washington Place, New York. It was a completely different world from our times. It was a World where Adolph Hitler was still very much a struggling artist in Vienna; Lenin was moving around Europe to organize followers around his ideas and Mahatma Gandhi a very much practicing lawyer in South Africa. That World was dominated by the great European powers of the day with almost all of current African and Asian nations under their influence. The United States was a fast growing power but still compared to the historical and classical imperial credentials of her more distinguished Western counterparts like the English and the French , the United states was more or less an well-doing start-up compared to the existing industrial behemoths like that of the British or the French empires. So when the event that I am going to talk about now took place on that 25-th March in New York, not many people around the World took notice of it and not many have taken the notice of that event thereafter.
The Asch Building was a ten-story office building in New York; it’s eighth, ninth and tenth floors were hosting the offices of Triangle Shirtwaist Company, owned by Max Blanck and Isaac Harris, recent Russian immigrants to America. The main product of the company was “Shirtwaists” a recently invented and extremely popular Woman’s ware. The company employed around 500 people, mostly immigrant girls in the age group of 13-23. The workers had to work long hours and six days a week and had to settle with a salary which was barely able to meet their only very basic requirements.
On 25-th march Saturday, around 4:30 PM, the time when the normal work had stopped and regular paychecks were being paid to the workers suddenly a fire was observed at one of the trash bins. Probably it was lit by an unfinished match or cigarette. The company had provisions to prevent smoking inside its rooms but probably one of the workers , who proved to be little bit more innovative than the overseers , had been able to smuggle one. At the beginning, the workers who were present, tried to extinguish the fire by pouring water but the fire defeated all of their efforts and grew large. Then the people at the eighth floor tried to put out the fire by opening the fire extinguishing hoses but even those did not work out properly. As fire started growing more rapidly, the workers at the eighth floor informed the residents at the tenth floor where the owners were present and left the place. But the workers at the ninth floor were not aware of this rapidly detoriating situation mainly because of two reasons. One, the fire alarms which were there did not function properly and second, the invention of a device like the cell phones was still to happen almost a century later. So what made the workers at the ninth floor aware of the fire was fire itself, according to one worker.
There were two elevators, a fire-exit and stairways for the marooned workers to escape but as with other things in the day, fate slowly but surely removed those options from their hands. Normally it was regulated by the city industrial authorities that doors at the factories should be opened but the owners of the Triangle Shirtwaist Company had ensured that the doors were closed so that no worker can get away with stealing. So the workers of the plant did not have the doors open to them. The two elevator operators Joseph Zito and Gaspar Mortillalo showed deep courage to keep the elevators running and they were able to save a lot of lives in the process but only till the elevators did function. As if it was inevitable, after some time the unfortunate workers trapped at the ninth floor, all options of escape had run out. Louis Waldman, a visitor described what happened next.
“Word had spread through the East Side, by some magic of terror, that the plant of the Triangle Waist Company was on fire and that several hundred workers were trapped. Horrified and helpless, the crowds — I among them — looked up at the burning building, saw girl after girl appear at the reddened windows, pause for a terrified moment, and then leap to the pavement below, to land as mangled, bloody pulp. This went on for what seemed a ghastly eternity. Occasionally a girl who had hesitated too long was licked by pursuing flames and, screaming with clothing and hair ablaze, plunged like a living torch to the street. Life nets held by the firemen were torn by the impact of the falling bodies.”
This horrible phenomenon of jumping to a sure and ghastly death whereby a human body ends up being a “mangled, bloody pulp” to escape from certain immolation will be repeated ninety years later during the twin tower attacks on 9/11. Human beings are prone to do extraordinary things when faced with extraordinary situations. The girls who jumped from that burning building did so to probably choose a quick end to an otherwise miserable life and not to suffer a more lingering and painful death by immolation. For some girls, probably that decision to jump from that building was the only choice that they could make in their lives where most of their lives’ decisions were made by others. Overall, 146 lives were lost to this original version of 9/11.
The owners by this time were safely evacuated and although they were tried for becoming first and second degree accomplishes in manslaughter but the victims of 25-th March , 1911 were not as fortunate as the victims of 11-th September , 2001. No “war on terror” will be launched, no 9-11 commissions will be formed and no foreign countries will be invaded, to avenge them. The owners would later be acquitted from their charges and that would eventually bring an end to this original version of America’s 9/11 and since the victims of 25-th March, 1911 were not so fortunate, very soon they will be put into the more oblivious pages of history.
Remembering an event which took place a century is probably a more difficult task to perform. After all this age is the “age of breaking news” whereby we do not even remember the most significant event that took place a week or two back , leave aside what happened a century back. This year was significant in terms of anniversary since this was the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 i.e. World trade centre attacks, an event with great significance, remembrance and tragedy. Yet this year also marks the century of another tragic event which has got very little remembrance until now.
The year was 1911 and the day was 25-th March and the place was Asch Building, at 23-29 Washington Place, New York. It was a completely different world from our times. It was a World where Adolph Hitler was still very much a struggling artist in Vienna; Lenin was moving around Europe to organize followers around his ideas and Mahatma Gandhi a very much practicing lawyer in South Africa. That World was dominated by the great European powers of the day with almost all of current African and Asian nations under their influence. The United States was a fast growing power but still compared to the historical and classical imperial credentials of her more distinguished Western counterparts like the English and the French , the United states was more or less an well-doing start-up compared to the existing industrial behemoths like that of the British or the French empires. So when the event that I am going to talk about now took place on that 25-th March in New York, not many people around the World took notice of it and not many have taken the notice of that event thereafter.
The Asch Building was a ten-story office building in New York; it’s eighth, ninth and tenth floors were hosting the offices of Triangle Shirtwaist Company, owned by Max Blanck and Isaac Harris, recent Russian immigrants to America. The main product of the company was “Shirtwaists” a recently invented and extremely popular Woman’s ware. The company employed around 500 people, mostly immigrant girls in the age group of 13-23. The workers had to work long hours and six days a week and had to settle with a salary which was barely able to meet their only very basic requirements.
On 25-th march Saturday, around 4:30 PM, the time when the normal work had stopped and regular paychecks were being paid to the workers suddenly a fire was observed at one of the trash bins. Probably it was lit by an unfinished match or cigarette. The company had provisions to prevent smoking inside its rooms but probably one of the workers , who proved to be little bit more innovative than the overseers , had been able to smuggle one. At the beginning, the workers who were present, tried to extinguish the fire by pouring water but the fire defeated all of their efforts and grew large. Then the people at the eighth floor tried to put out the fire by opening the fire extinguishing hoses but even those did not work out properly. As fire started growing more rapidly, the workers at the eighth floor informed the residents at the tenth floor where the owners were present and left the place. But the workers at the ninth floor were not aware of this rapidly detoriating situation mainly because of two reasons. One, the fire alarms which were there did not function properly and second, the invention of a device like the cell phones was still to happen almost a century later. So what made the workers at the ninth floor aware of the fire was fire itself, according to one worker.
There were two elevators, a fire-exit and stairways for the marooned workers to escape but as with other things in the day, fate slowly but surely removed those options from their hands. Normally it was regulated by the city industrial authorities that doors at the factories should be opened but the owners of the Triangle Shirtwaist Company had ensured that the doors were closed so that no worker can get away with stealing. So the workers of the plant did not have the doors open to them. The two elevator operators Joseph Zito and Gaspar Mortillalo showed deep courage to keep the elevators running and they were able to save a lot of lives in the process but only till the elevators did function. As if it was inevitable, after some time the unfortunate workers trapped at the ninth floor, all options of escape had run out. Louis Waldman, a visitor described what happened next.
“Word had spread through the East Side, by some magic of terror, that the plant of the Triangle Waist Company was on fire and that several hundred workers were trapped. Horrified and helpless, the crowds — I among them — looked up at the burning building, saw girl after girl appear at the reddened windows, pause for a terrified moment, and then leap to the pavement below, to land as mangled, bloody pulp. This went on for what seemed a ghastly eternity. Occasionally a girl who had hesitated too long was licked by pursuing flames and, screaming with clothing and hair ablaze, plunged like a living torch to the street. Life nets held by the firemen were torn by the impact of the falling bodies.”
This horrible phenomenon of jumping to a sure and ghastly death whereby a human body ends up being a “mangled, bloody pulp” to escape from certain immolation will be repeated ninety years later during the twin tower attacks on 9/11. Human beings are prone to do extraordinary things when faced with extraordinary situations. The girls who jumped from that burning building did so to probably choose a quick end to an otherwise miserable life and not to suffer a more lingering and painful death by immolation. For some girls, probably that decision to jump from that building was the only choice that they could make in their lives where most of their lives’ decisions were made by others. Overall, 146 lives were lost to this original version of 9/11.
The owners by this time were safely evacuated and although they were tried for becoming first and second degree accomplishes in manslaughter but the victims of 25-th March , 1911 were not as fortunate as the victims of 11-th September , 2001. No “war on terror” will be launched, no 9-11 commissions will be formed and no foreign countries will be invaded, to avenge them. The owners would later be acquitted from their charges and that would eventually bring an end to this original version of America’s 9/11 and since the victims of 25-th March, 1911 were not so fortunate, very soon they will be put into the more oblivious pages of history.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Rise of China - what a difference a century makes
The international capitals of global power were buzzing last week with the news that the French president Nicholas Sarkozy has requested China to start purchasing European government bonds to provide much needed finances to the struggling economies of the beleaguered European Union including economic bellwethers like Italy, Spain and Ireland. As a student of history, my first reaction to this news was what a difference a century makes in terms of historical shifting of positions.
Think about this about a historical shift, the country that we call today as the People’s Republic of China was under the ignominious position of being under the yoke of the same countries of Europe who are today asking China for help. In the beginning of 20-th century, the Chinese were not allowed to set their feet on the soil of sudden areas inside places like Beijing which were called “Legation quarters”. After the defeat of the Chinese forces in the Boxers rebellion (1898-1901) by a coalition of the Western powers, the Chinese were asked to accept terms by which the Chinese were not able to settle in places like the “Legation quarters” in cities such as Shanghai and Beijing as well as being subject to the approval of others to procure or prepare arms to defend themselves against the encroachments of the very same powers. The British had forced the Chinese thanks to their superior naval power to consume Opium and hand over important ports like Hong Kong for the provision of important trade routes. Two great powers of the early 20-th century; the Czarist Russia and the Japanese empire had fought with each other basically for the control of the lucrative Chinese territory. The dominant powers of the day saw China as a huge market for consuming their products and a source for cheap raw materials and far cheaper human labor, the latter was used extensively for building the vast American railway system in the late 19-th century.
The whole first half of the 20-th Century saw China going through one calamity after another; first the republican revolution which ended the monarchy and installed the republican Kuomintang regime in the early 1910-s, then the brutal and ruthless Japanese invasion which started in 1930 and ended only after the surrender of Japan at the end of the second world war and produced horrors like “the rape of Nanjing” as aptly described by Iris Chang in her book on the shameful event; these tragic events were followed by the bloody and fratricidal civil war which saw the birth of the modern-day People’s republic of China and then it was the time for the new China to get itself involved into wars in its neighborhood like those in Korea and Vietnam while at the same time she was embroiled in experiments like the cultural revolution and the great leap forward. China lost about 100 million souls in all these conflicts in the violent episodes of the 20 –th century and its economy was barely the size as of India even well in 1940-s. It was impossible to consider China being asked for help in the economic discussions of Europe even at the beginning of the 21-st century. So what were the factors that made to realize so much of a paradigm shift and how would China respond with these offers?
There is a serious debate going on around the intellectual circles in the World about the exact reasons why China was able to reverse its position in the World compared to what it was a century back. One reason that should be highlighted is that the Chinese policymakers from the time of Deng Hsiao Ping understood the benefit of greater trade and commerce around the World. They had understood clearly that China possessed two historically great advantages whose careful exploitation would entail great economic leverage that have been missing in China compared to her Western counterparts. China had the biggest market in terms of population and a hardworking, crafty and most importantly from an industrial viewpoint, an extremely cheap labor class. What China lacked were in terms of sufficient capital and corresponding technology to usher in a new age of industrial revolution. The decision by the Chinese leadership to seek détente with the West at the height of the cold war and the subsequent Chinese admission to the WTO should be viewed in this context. And as the Chinese leadership thought and decided, history has proven them right. China which once in the 20-th century had an economy roughly 20 times less than that of the United States is well poised to take over the United States in the coming 2/3 decades. China boasts a leviathan reserve of $3.2 Trillion dollars in terms of foreign reserves which is the main reason that Monsieur Sarkozy seeks Chinese help in calming the stormy fiscal seas through which Europe finds herself traveling now.
The most important question of the 21-st century is what will China do with its newfound power and influence? Historically China is not a missionary nation alike West in the sense that it does not seek to export and if possible impose Chinese law, language, culture and way of life over the nations whom it does business with. China’s main two important rules of conduct in terms of foreign policy has been that a strict adherence to non-interference in the matters of others and doing business without any pre-condition or pre-conceived notion. These are the two major points that have ensured China can do business with almost all the countries in the planet.
What China can offer to the likes of Monsieur Sarkozy is that in exchange of China pulling European fiscal chestnuts out of fire , Europe should grant the Chinese the rights to own farmlands and cultivate them , set up businesses , invest freely without the usual European hassling rules and regulations and employ cheap Chinese labor in these ventures. These Chinese ventures in Europe would in turn allow the most important thing that the European economies have been lacking so far which is fresh consumer demands. This could be a win-win scenario for both the parties in question.
Think about this about a historical shift, the country that we call today as the People’s Republic of China was under the ignominious position of being under the yoke of the same countries of Europe who are today asking China for help. In the beginning of 20-th century, the Chinese were not allowed to set their feet on the soil of sudden areas inside places like Beijing which were called “Legation quarters”. After the defeat of the Chinese forces in the Boxers rebellion (1898-1901) by a coalition of the Western powers, the Chinese were asked to accept terms by which the Chinese were not able to settle in places like the “Legation quarters” in cities such as Shanghai and Beijing as well as being subject to the approval of others to procure or prepare arms to defend themselves against the encroachments of the very same powers. The British had forced the Chinese thanks to their superior naval power to consume Opium and hand over important ports like Hong Kong for the provision of important trade routes. Two great powers of the early 20-th century; the Czarist Russia and the Japanese empire had fought with each other basically for the control of the lucrative Chinese territory. The dominant powers of the day saw China as a huge market for consuming their products and a source for cheap raw materials and far cheaper human labor, the latter was used extensively for building the vast American railway system in the late 19-th century.
The whole first half of the 20-th Century saw China going through one calamity after another; first the republican revolution which ended the monarchy and installed the republican Kuomintang regime in the early 1910-s, then the brutal and ruthless Japanese invasion which started in 1930 and ended only after the surrender of Japan at the end of the second world war and produced horrors like “the rape of Nanjing” as aptly described by Iris Chang in her book on the shameful event; these tragic events were followed by the bloody and fratricidal civil war which saw the birth of the modern-day People’s republic of China and then it was the time for the new China to get itself involved into wars in its neighborhood like those in Korea and Vietnam while at the same time she was embroiled in experiments like the cultural revolution and the great leap forward. China lost about 100 million souls in all these conflicts in the violent episodes of the 20 –th century and its economy was barely the size as of India even well in 1940-s. It was impossible to consider China being asked for help in the economic discussions of Europe even at the beginning of the 21-st century. So what were the factors that made to realize so much of a paradigm shift and how would China respond with these offers?
There is a serious debate going on around the intellectual circles in the World about the exact reasons why China was able to reverse its position in the World compared to what it was a century back. One reason that should be highlighted is that the Chinese policymakers from the time of Deng Hsiao Ping understood the benefit of greater trade and commerce around the World. They had understood clearly that China possessed two historically great advantages whose careful exploitation would entail great economic leverage that have been missing in China compared to her Western counterparts. China had the biggest market in terms of population and a hardworking, crafty and most importantly from an industrial viewpoint, an extremely cheap labor class. What China lacked were in terms of sufficient capital and corresponding technology to usher in a new age of industrial revolution. The decision by the Chinese leadership to seek détente with the West at the height of the cold war and the subsequent Chinese admission to the WTO should be viewed in this context. And as the Chinese leadership thought and decided, history has proven them right. China which once in the 20-th century had an economy roughly 20 times less than that of the United States is well poised to take over the United States in the coming 2/3 decades. China boasts a leviathan reserve of $3.2 Trillion dollars in terms of foreign reserves which is the main reason that Monsieur Sarkozy seeks Chinese help in calming the stormy fiscal seas through which Europe finds herself traveling now.
The most important question of the 21-st century is what will China do with its newfound power and influence? Historically China is not a missionary nation alike West in the sense that it does not seek to export and if possible impose Chinese law, language, culture and way of life over the nations whom it does business with. China’s main two important rules of conduct in terms of foreign policy has been that a strict adherence to non-interference in the matters of others and doing business without any pre-condition or pre-conceived notion. These are the two major points that have ensured China can do business with almost all the countries in the planet.
What China can offer to the likes of Monsieur Sarkozy is that in exchange of China pulling European fiscal chestnuts out of fire , Europe should grant the Chinese the rights to own farmlands and cultivate them , set up businesses , invest freely without the usual European hassling rules and regulations and employ cheap Chinese labor in these ventures. These Chinese ventures in Europe would in turn allow the most important thing that the European economies have been lacking so far which is fresh consumer demands. This could be a win-win scenario for both the parties in question.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
While the East sleeps, the West rules
My first reaction after watching Dominic Strauss Kahn affair was to ponder about a little bit and then ask myself a question, what made this ripe, old man do what he has done ? Then I realized this man could think about ... well getting away with all those since he knew he was the head of one of the biggest lending institutions in the World , thereby outside the normal course of law , unaccountable by the normal processes of the law.
The main reason that rich and powerful men like DSK could think of getting away with these kinds of crimes is… well, they are the only game in the town. The IMF and its Bretton-woods twin World Bank are the two most important lending institutions in the World, a place where everyone goes for money when their budget balance sheets are finally in red.
The normal prescription of the IMF and the World Bank to their unfortunate patients (read nations in need of balancing their budgets) is similar: cut down your expanses which often boils down to closing down schools for your children, stopping the treatment of the poor in the hospitals and throwing out the needy elderly without their pension benefits and increase taxes on your people. It is said that “a tree is known by the fruits, it bears”. Well, the IMF has a lot of fruits to its credit, the Argentine crisis, the Asean tigers’ crisis and the recent crisis in Greece , Portugal , Spain and the list can go on and on.
Even after selling so many rotten fruits to the public, the IMF can hope to get away and even the maligned DSK can hope to fight for another day is because there is no other player in the market to compete against the ideas the IMF and the World Bank represent.
Let me be very clear here my readers. The West when she is convinced that she has an idea, she would move heaven and earth to implement that idea and will do everything in her power to make the whole world accept that idea. When the West advises us non-Westerners about the virtues free-market economics, make no mistake that she is convinced about her ideas and she will use all the means at her disposal to make everyone of us adhere to those ideas. Unfortunately, we in the “East” (by “East” I mean those who happen to be outside the realm of the privileged club comprising of EU, US, Japan, Australia, Canada and Israel) have to face the consequences if we happen to be at the wrong end of the implementation of those ideas for example say when an Western World Bank economist becomes the economic advisor of an African country without ever setting foot on the soil of that nation and his policies lead to the sad demise of the economy of that country. The people in that country suffer and the World Bank economist just goes for another assignment.
Now this leads to us to the question; why are we in the “East” not doing anything to prevent all these? The historians tell us that the “East” for example China and India led the World in terms of wealth and trade during most of the times of recorded history except say may last two-three centuries of Western domination. Even now days China and India are the two fastest growing economies in the World, the fastest growing economy in Europe happens to be Turkey, in the Latin America Brazil’s economic growth surpasses that of many of her North American counterparts but still why do the global “East” have to listen to the dictates of those World Bank pundits and those IMF experts even when we know those “advises” (read dictates) have only led to ruin for many of us? The answer, in my view is simple: while we in the East look to be numero uno in terms of GDP growth rates, those in the West look to create ideas and propagate them to us. Since we in the “East” neither create any ideas of our own nor have the conviction to implement and propagate those ideas, we are left to follow what the West gives to us.
Here is my solution to it. I believe this is high time for the major economies in the “East” i.e. China, India, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia should come together and create an alternative global financial organization. The above list of the countries must be and should be expandable. I propose that we call this organization “global cooperative bank”. The main function of this institution will be to promote collaboration among different underprivileged (those whom the West shuns for many reasons) countries in the “East” and to help them with their finances and development without the strings and riders, the IMF and the World Bank attaches. This institution could help by investing in the much-needed infrastructure and education projects in Africa, West and Central Asia and Latin America which the West has shunned for various reasons. The fruits of the investments should be shared equally between the underprivileged countries and the investors.
I know there are serious differences between many of us in the “East” but I do believe that we need to come together on this otherwise the West will continue to follow the policy of dividing and ruling over us. And, Yes I know that it will be difficult implementing an organization such as the one I have proposed but I have full confidence if the best of minds from the “East” can come together then surely we will be able to implement alternative ideas like the one I have proposed. I have full confidence in the best of minds in the “East”. And I have strong grounds for my confidence. Last time I checked, I found many of the countries in the “East” for example China and India were running huge trade surpluses over their Western counterparts which goes to show that there are very many goods and services which we in the “East” can produce and export with much lesser cost and assured quality. So if we can do that there is no reason we can not produce ideas which present a better alternative to the World.
There will be two major benefits of the same. The “East” will be able to have her own narrative which it can propose to the West and the West will be able to understand the follies of her own ideas and correct them.
The basic axiom that the market economics fundamentalists teach us is that competition brings improvement in quality of the overall system. I believe the West needs to face some good decent competition in terms of ideas from the “East” and then only we can see a sea change in the global system as we know it. But without that it will be the status quo running on where the East sleeps and the dignity of her women gets compromised by the rich and powerful in the West.
The main reason that rich and powerful men like DSK could think of getting away with these kinds of crimes is… well, they are the only game in the town. The IMF and its Bretton-woods twin World Bank are the two most important lending institutions in the World, a place where everyone goes for money when their budget balance sheets are finally in red.
The normal prescription of the IMF and the World Bank to their unfortunate patients (read nations in need of balancing their budgets) is similar: cut down your expanses which often boils down to closing down schools for your children, stopping the treatment of the poor in the hospitals and throwing out the needy elderly without their pension benefits and increase taxes on your people. It is said that “a tree is known by the fruits, it bears”. Well, the IMF has a lot of fruits to its credit, the Argentine crisis, the Asean tigers’ crisis and the recent crisis in Greece , Portugal , Spain and the list can go on and on.
Even after selling so many rotten fruits to the public, the IMF can hope to get away and even the maligned DSK can hope to fight for another day is because there is no other player in the market to compete against the ideas the IMF and the World Bank represent.
Let me be very clear here my readers. The West when she is convinced that she has an idea, she would move heaven and earth to implement that idea and will do everything in her power to make the whole world accept that idea. When the West advises us non-Westerners about the virtues free-market economics, make no mistake that she is convinced about her ideas and she will use all the means at her disposal to make everyone of us adhere to those ideas. Unfortunately, we in the “East” (by “East” I mean those who happen to be outside the realm of the privileged club comprising of EU, US, Japan, Australia, Canada and Israel) have to face the consequences if we happen to be at the wrong end of the implementation of those ideas for example say when an Western World Bank economist becomes the economic advisor of an African country without ever setting foot on the soil of that nation and his policies lead to the sad demise of the economy of that country. The people in that country suffer and the World Bank economist just goes for another assignment.
Now this leads to us to the question; why are we in the “East” not doing anything to prevent all these? The historians tell us that the “East” for example China and India led the World in terms of wealth and trade during most of the times of recorded history except say may last two-three centuries of Western domination. Even now days China and India are the two fastest growing economies in the World, the fastest growing economy in Europe happens to be Turkey, in the Latin America Brazil’s economic growth surpasses that of many of her North American counterparts but still why do the global “East” have to listen to the dictates of those World Bank pundits and those IMF experts even when we know those “advises” (read dictates) have only led to ruin for many of us? The answer, in my view is simple: while we in the East look to be numero uno in terms of GDP growth rates, those in the West look to create ideas and propagate them to us. Since we in the “East” neither create any ideas of our own nor have the conviction to implement and propagate those ideas, we are left to follow what the West gives to us.
Here is my solution to it. I believe this is high time for the major economies in the “East” i.e. China, India, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia should come together and create an alternative global financial organization. The above list of the countries must be and should be expandable. I propose that we call this organization “global cooperative bank”. The main function of this institution will be to promote collaboration among different underprivileged (those whom the West shuns for many reasons) countries in the “East” and to help them with their finances and development without the strings and riders, the IMF and the World Bank attaches. This institution could help by investing in the much-needed infrastructure and education projects in Africa, West and Central Asia and Latin America which the West has shunned for various reasons. The fruits of the investments should be shared equally between the underprivileged countries and the investors.
I know there are serious differences between many of us in the “East” but I do believe that we need to come together on this otherwise the West will continue to follow the policy of dividing and ruling over us. And, Yes I know that it will be difficult implementing an organization such as the one I have proposed but I have full confidence if the best of minds from the “East” can come together then surely we will be able to implement alternative ideas like the one I have proposed. I have full confidence in the best of minds in the “East”. And I have strong grounds for my confidence. Last time I checked, I found many of the countries in the “East” for example China and India were running huge trade surpluses over their Western counterparts which goes to show that there are very many goods and services which we in the “East” can produce and export with much lesser cost and assured quality. So if we can do that there is no reason we can not produce ideas which present a better alternative to the World.
There will be two major benefits of the same. The “East” will be able to have her own narrative which it can propose to the West and the West will be able to understand the follies of her own ideas and correct them.
The basic axiom that the market economics fundamentalists teach us is that competition brings improvement in quality of the overall system. I believe the West needs to face some good decent competition in terms of ideas from the “East” and then only we can see a sea change in the global system as we know it. But without that it will be the status quo running on where the East sleeps and the dignity of her women gets compromised by the rich and powerful in the West.
The day that de-Americanized America
I remember very clearly an ad on CNN, just days after 9/11. The ad said something like this; “do not forget it is not PLA, it is not Al-Qaida , it is not Hezbollah or Hamas that we are fighting ; what we are fighting is hatred” , then the announcer of the ad stopped a little bit and then added “and it is winning…”
At the time of 9/11, I was just another 19-year old just about to start my life in college; but that particular ad had remained fixated in my memory and as I start to write this just two hours before the 10-th anniversary on 9/11 would commence, the message of that ad still remains fresh in my mind.
Leaders of America had the support of the whole world behind them after 9/11, so much shocked and horrified the World was at those attacks that even the Islamic republic of Iran , the avowed enemy of America ; had offered them cooperation and a permanent end to hostilities in exchange of equal treatment.
What was the reaction of President Bush? Instead of accepting the gratitude of the World, he acted with a mindset to remake the World. He declared Iran as part of an “axis of evil” and followed up with sanctions and covert operations for “regime change”. America would remake the World into her own democratic image, he thundered to the World in his now famous 2002 “axis of evil” address. Maybe it was the outburst of that quintessential American attitude called “American exceptionalism” which always considers itself as part of a divine mission to outdo all wrongs in the World as well as converting the whole World into America’s image.
But what about the American people? What about the average American? Why did he not come to the same understanding the rest of the World had about some of the policies that his leaders were taking on his name? 9/11 not only changed America but it also changed the average American. The average American went into a retreat into a make believe world where he restricts his education about the world to the posts in social networking sites and demagogic websites. In the end, the average American did not bother much when Iraq was invaded on false pretexts, when those obscenities from Abu Gharib shocked the World, when those who caused the global economic recession in 2008 went home with their compensations intact. In the end, in the land of consumerism and individualism, the average American converted himself from a citizen into a consumer and individual. And the reason why it happened? It was the same old reason as shown in that ad after 9/11, it was the sense of hatred; it was the sense of fear; it was the sense of “being wronged” ; it was this sense which did not allow America to become normal and has not allowed her to become normal ever since. The primitive sense of taking revenge and the more primitive sense of existential fear had overpowered the average American so much that he remains stuck to his viewpoint about a cruel World coming to destroy his beloved America.
America was always considered a land of abundant opportunities for the worthy to take; it was the land where you can think about taking your chances in life that you want to take. America believed about opening herself to the World. Now what has happened ever since that fateful day? America did not allow its ports to be operated by Dubai Port City because it feared that terrorists might snick in; America closed its doors to the people of Gaza when they elected Hamas in a democratic election in 2006; President Bush is alleged to have even threatened to bomb the Al-Jazeera offices because he was not happy with the news.
In short, 9/11 was a day that made America stop being America. It was the day that de-Americanized America.
At the time of 9/11, I was just another 19-year old just about to start my life in college; but that particular ad had remained fixated in my memory and as I start to write this just two hours before the 10-th anniversary on 9/11 would commence, the message of that ad still remains fresh in my mind.
Leaders of America had the support of the whole world behind them after 9/11, so much shocked and horrified the World was at those attacks that even the Islamic republic of Iran , the avowed enemy of America ; had offered them cooperation and a permanent end to hostilities in exchange of equal treatment.
What was the reaction of President Bush? Instead of accepting the gratitude of the World, he acted with a mindset to remake the World. He declared Iran as part of an “axis of evil” and followed up with sanctions and covert operations for “regime change”. America would remake the World into her own democratic image, he thundered to the World in his now famous 2002 “axis of evil” address. Maybe it was the outburst of that quintessential American attitude called “American exceptionalism” which always considers itself as part of a divine mission to outdo all wrongs in the World as well as converting the whole World into America’s image.
But what about the American people? What about the average American? Why did he not come to the same understanding the rest of the World had about some of the policies that his leaders were taking on his name? 9/11 not only changed America but it also changed the average American. The average American went into a retreat into a make believe world where he restricts his education about the world to the posts in social networking sites and demagogic websites. In the end, the average American did not bother much when Iraq was invaded on false pretexts, when those obscenities from Abu Gharib shocked the World, when those who caused the global economic recession in 2008 went home with their compensations intact. In the end, in the land of consumerism and individualism, the average American converted himself from a citizen into a consumer and individual. And the reason why it happened? It was the same old reason as shown in that ad after 9/11, it was the sense of hatred; it was the sense of fear; it was the sense of “being wronged” ; it was this sense which did not allow America to become normal and has not allowed her to become normal ever since. The primitive sense of taking revenge and the more primitive sense of existential fear had overpowered the average American so much that he remains stuck to his viewpoint about a cruel World coming to destroy his beloved America.
America was always considered a land of abundant opportunities for the worthy to take; it was the land where you can think about taking your chances in life that you want to take. America believed about opening herself to the World. Now what has happened ever since that fateful day? America did not allow its ports to be operated by Dubai Port City because it feared that terrorists might snick in; America closed its doors to the people of Gaza when they elected Hamas in a democratic election in 2006; President Bush is alleged to have even threatened to bomb the Al-Jazeera offices because he was not happy with the news.
In short, 9/11 was a day that made America stop being America. It was the day that de-Americanized America.
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