Strategic Vision 2020-Turkey

Introduction

The prominent role Turkey has played during the ongoing events in the Arab world is a long-awaited natural fulfillment of its historical responsibilities in the region. To solidify and expand its role and influences, the current leadership of Turkey needs to define its strategic objectives for the next decade from now on.

Here are the below objectives I believe Turkey should set for itself for the next decade.

Achieving a strong and sustainable economic foundation for the next decade

Historically, the most important pre-requisite for achieving international respectability and influence is to have a strong and sustainable economic foundation. A strong economy also ensures a strong and sustainable resource allocation towards military and strategic usages. This is exactly the way the European powers took towards international glory and great power status in the 19-th century, the United States took in the 20-th century and China has been taking in our times. Turkey has been on a strong path of growth in the recent years; easily achieving unforeseen growth rates that it has never seen previously. It needs to maintain this momentum throughout the coming decade and if possible to expand more. Here are some of the steps I believe the Turkish leadership should look to work to sustain its strong economic momentum in recent years.

1. Establishment of a common-market zone in the region:
One of the issues that may impact Turkey’s economic foundation in future could be its trade and other deficits. One of the most proven ways to control those deficits is to increase exports. The post-revolution countries in the West Asian and North African region are the natural markets for Turkish products and services. The current Turkish leadership has been working towards this for some time now by initiating a common-market and open-border mechanism with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Now this same mechanism could be created for the post-revolutionary countries in the region like Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq and Libya once the revolutionary dust settles in these countries. Turkey should work with Iran to include Tehran also in this set-up for better regional integration. A similar kind of relationship could be worked upon with the central Asian as well as Balkan countries considering the historical fraternal ties that Turkey enjoys with these countries in the region. These countries in question would need a lot of enhancement and improvement in terms of their infrastructure. Turkey can offer great help to these countries in this regard. A free trade mechanism would help Turkish companies to fulfill these demands of the regional countries. This common market as a principle should enable a free flow of goods and services across the borders of the member countries as well as offering an opportunity

2. Exploiting the energy potential of the Eastern Mediterranean sea:
Achieving energy independence is also very important for turkey for establishing the strong economic base. The Eastern Mediterranean provides Turkey an excellent opportunity for exploiting its potentials. The Eastern Mediterranean area according to a recent US geological survey estimates may well contain 120 tcf (approximate) amount of natural gas. The countries which are in the region are Israel, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and the Cypriots. Israel and Greek Cypriots are already planning a collaboration effort in this regard for the exploration of the natural resources in the area. Lebanon and Turkish Cypriots are also looking for assistance in helping out them for possible exploration opportunities in the region. Turkey should look to help these countries in this regard. Regarding the situation with the possible collaboration between Greek Cypriots and Israel in exploiting the natural resources of the area; let us consider the fact that Greece, the traditional patron of the Greek Cypriots is going through a terrible economic situation and is in desperate need of financial help to avoid bankruptcy. Turkey can think about collaboration with a country for example China to offer Athens its much needed financial help in exchange of Athens using its good offices with Greek Cypriots to allow Turkey and China to collaborate in exploration of natural gas in marine territory under the control of Athens and Nicosia. From the perspective of Greece as well as the Greek Cypriots, the option of collaboration with two of the fastest growing economies in the World should be a better proposition that dealing with an increasingly isolated Israel. The recent economic collaboration treaty between Turkey and Egypt is a step in the right direction. The ultimate objective of Turkish policy in the Mediterranean should be to create a common-market approach with the like-minded nations in the area for securing the continuous exploitation and transportation of the vital natural resources in the area.

Establishing a more democratic and representative order in the Arab World

The current situation in West Asia and the wider region represent a conflict between two competing philosophies. On one side there is Israel and her Western backers led by the USA and supported by the monarchical regimes in the Gulf. The main objective of these regimes is to stall the march of freedom i.e. to ensure the status-quo which has been in effect since the end of 1967-war between Israel and the Arab states. On the other hand there are these nascent movements as can be seen in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and elsewhere calling for a change in the situation. These movements call for more popular participation in the political affairs of the countries as well as a dignified and just resolution to the decades old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Considering the current Turkish leadership has strongly supported these nascent political movements for freedom and change in the Arab world, it is fitting for Turkey to consolidate, organize and help the freedom movements in the Arab world reach their objectives. These are the approaches Turkey should follow in my view during the next decade.

1. Presenting a justifiable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – Thanks to the inflexible approach of the Israeli side and the unimpressive American mediation efforts the internationally approved two-state solution looks increasingly bleak. If the Palestinian bid for statehood fails in the current UN general session then there will be only one justifiable solution left for all the concerned parties in the region i.e. an one-state solution whereby all the inhabitants of the region i.e. Jews , Christians and Muslims can live with peace and prosperity in one single democratic state. There is already a camp among both the Palestinians as well as non-Zionist Jews like those belonging to Neturei Karta who does support a democratic one-state solution for all the peoples in the holy land. Even Israeli rightwing politicians such as Reuven Rivlin have supported similar position in past.It will do Turkey a lot of favor in terms of world public opinion to support a future movement for a possible democratic and inclusive one-state solution to the problem.

2. Supporting potential movements of freedom in the status–quo states of the region: Turkey should start encouraging and organizing popular movements in the countries of the region which call for greater political participation in the political affairs of the countries of region. Supporting pro-democracy groups in places like Bahrain would help Turkish pro-democracy and pro-freedom credentials in the wider Muslim world.

3. A regional approach: Turkey should try to establish strong economic and strategic relationships with the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries and especially Russia and China. Having a strong relationship with those countries would allow Turkey a lot of maneuverability in terms of its existing strategic equations with the NATO-allied countries in general and the USA, UK and France in particular. Turkey needs this maneuverability considering that it’s interests in the Arab world will not always be at the same length with that of its NATO partners in all the times as we have seen in case of Iranian nuclear question as well as the Israeli-Palestinian issues.

In case of crisis situations like the one we have seen in Libya; Turkey should work to create a regional body to enforce law and order as well as finding out a just and politically acceptable solution to the crisis situations like the one in Libya. This regional body should include prominent countries in the region like Turkey, Egypt, Iran etc and it could also consider involving organizations like OIC, SCO and AU in the handling of crisis situations in the region. Without any regional approaches initiated to conflict prevention and conflict resolution we can see further interventions from actors outside the region like in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya with tragic consequences for everyone in the region.

4. A new approach towards the EU: Turkey needs to have a revised approach towards the EU. Instead of adopting its policies vis a vis Europe as a whole block, Turkey should consider forging relationships with individual EU countries based upon its interests and concerns. Historically, there have been only three major power players in the European hemisphere i.e. UK, France and Germany. Now alike their historical past, the countries in question do have divergence of interests in a lot of issues as we have seen in the recent events in Libya. Turkey needs to adopt its policies in keeping this fact in mind. There is another strong reason behind adopting policies with individual EU countries. Considering the current difficult economic scenarios it will be interesting to observe whether the EU is able to maintain its integrity and continued existence as a continent-wide block. If the EU is not able to maintain its integrity in the future, then Turkey would need to weigh its options based upon its interests.

Conclusion
The Arab spring has presented a set of unique opportunities for Turkey to lead a new order in the region with new hopes and expectations. If the Turkish leadership decides to encourage and strengthen these new approaches of collaboration and integration as is currently prevalent in the region; undoubtedly a more prosperous and independent order will come into being in the region.