The coming war in West Asia

Among all the noises rising out from the current upheavals in Western Asia, one noise is quite clear. Israel, the strongest military power in the region, is not feeling comfortable with the possibility of the political changes in the region. Israel made clear its disapproval of the toppling of the pro-Israel and staunchly pro-Western dictator Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. Israel is also concerned about the possible up and coming unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state by the Palestinian authority. Israel has also made clear its disapproval of the ongoing reconciliation talks between the Fatah-led government in the West Bank and the Hamas-led government in Gaza ; these talks are aimed at sorting out all possible differences between the two competing Palestinian factions and creating an unified Palestinian polity before the possible unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood.

After its victory in the six-day war, Israel’s main concerns have been to prevent the rise of any potential military challenger in West Asia as well as consolidating the military gains it made in that war. Israel was also helped by its “special relationship” with the United States. Throughout the cold war, it projected itself as “the only democracy in a region of autocrats and tyrants”. The peace deals Israel made with two of its neighbors i.e. Egypt and Jordan helped Israel to maintain its dominance over the region. Israel built settlements on the land it captured during the six-day war to create a Jewish majority i.e. “facts on the ground”. The gulf wars in 1991 and 2003 helped Israel in removing Iraq as a possible long-term military challenger. Since 9/11, Israel benefited immensely by presenting itself as the last outpost of Western civilization in the ongoing “War on terror”.

The ongoing popular movements in West Asia have presented unique problems for Israel.

Israeli fears of possible democratic political dispensations in post-revolution Arab nations: There are fears in Israel that the post-Mubarak government in Egypt would not toe the Israeli line on important matters regarding Israeli economic blockade on Gaza or Israeli isolation of the Hamas-led government in Gaza. Israel also fears that the peace agreement signed between Egypt and Israel which allowed Israel to concentrate upon its opponents in the North may not hold. Israel’s fears regarding Egypt are based upon the notion that any democratic government would have to consider popular opinion in its decision making and the popular opinion about Israel in Egypt as well as in the rest of the Arab world is not positive.

An end to the Israeli argument of being the “only democracy in Western Asia”: Israel is also fearful that if Arab nations go on to become successful democracies, its own position as “the only democracy in the middle east” will come to an end. The Americans and other Western countries have often claimed about spreading democratic values in West Asia as their main foreign policy objective. So if the current popular movements in West Asia do go on to produce stable, representatively democratic states in the West Asian region American policy objectives will be met. Thereby Israel’s importance in the eyes of its backers in the Western world would certainly go down. There have been voices in the American intelligentsia like Steven Walt and John Mersheimer who have been calling the United States to reduce its overwhelming support of Israel. Those voices would only get louder once more Arab nations become successful representative democracies.

An end to Israeli argument of not having any Palestinian partner to negotiate: Israeli strategy Vis a Vis the Palestinians since the six-day war have been to consolidate its hold on the Arab territories that it seized on that war. In this regard it has always sought to create and sustain a Palestinian leadership which would sufficiently co-operate with it in that regard. Sufficient co-operation with Israel extends to cracking down on any movement opposed to Israeli policies in the area. Without any doubt this can not said to be popular among the Palestinian populace. This is the main reason why Israel is apprehensive about any thaw in the relationship between the Fatah and Hamas-led governments in the Palestinian territories. Unlike the Fatah-led Palestinian authority in West Bank which has been willing to collaborate with Israel on some security matters, the Hamas-led Gazan government is staunchly opposed to Israeli policies in the territories. Any unified Palestinian leadership would also mean that Israel will not have any one willing to collaborate with Israel on Israeli policies inside the Israeli-occupied territories. On another note the more divided the Palestinians are, the easier it is for the Israelis to make the argument that they do not have any fixed partner for peace negotiations. A unified Palestinian side would put an end to that position also.

Veteran Middle East expert Daniel Pipes has emphasized that the only way Israel can have peace is to ensure that Palestinians feel no hope for repealing their plight under Israeli influence and are forced to beg to Israel for sustenance. All Israeli policies regarding the Palestinians since the six-day war in 1967 have to be seen in this context. But of late Israel feels its position Vis a Vis the Palestinians is not gaining anything. The Palestinians either in Israel proper or in the occupied territories has not yet given up fighting for their rights despite being in wrong end of Israeli policies for last 40 years. The world is not as favorable to Israeli designs as it used to be in the past as we can see a growing worldwide campaign to boycott Israel alike the one against apartheid South Africa. Now in this background Israel feels that it is slowly losing the support and goodwill it needs to remain an admired and respected nation in the comity of nations.

Israel since its inception has believed in imposing its views on what it considers its enemies. It is only a matter of time in the current background that it will be willing to use its only card left to play with: i.e. overwhelming military power. Israel did not achieve all its military goals in the past two military ventures i.e. in Lebanon 2006 and Gaza in 2009. So Israel will be willing to use its military power to emphasize to its allies and foes that it is still the overwhelming military power in the region and is willing to use that power to impose its will on what it considers enemies. Israel believes that this would also send a message to its weary American allies to look again at Israel with more seriousness.

It is difficult to predict which time and against which opponents Israel will get involved into a war but one thing is clear, when Israel will be involved in the war it will use overwhelming force for a quick victory. Israel will fight for a quick victory since it is not possible for Israel to fight a prolonged war considering the hostile international public opinion it will generate against Israel. That Israel may look to military options for imposing its will on those which it considers its enemies is supported by veteran Foreign affairs expert Spengler (David P Goldman) in this column. In this column the veteran expert clearly mentions the case from an Israeli perspective on a military venture. History also suggests that Israel will resort to military option to impose its will on those who it considers as its enemies when it considers itself under pressure as it did in Lebanon in 1982 and 2006 and Gaza in 2009.

From a regional and global viewpoint, this coming war by Israel would be nothing short of a disaster as it would destroy any hopes of peace in the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well as weakening the moderate elements in the current democratic movements in the Arab world in favor of more extremist elements. This war will also sully Israel’s reputation a great deal and very few will be prepared to trust it as a responsible and trustable player in International affairs.

The Arab states are too divided between themselves or militarily weak to prevent and deter any Israeli military ventures. The only regional power which can deter any Israeli military design is Turkey. Since the beginning of the current uprisings, Turkey has played the role of mediator and negotiator to bring peace and order in the turbulent West Asian region. It is the only military power which has the power to deter any possible Israeli military ventures. Apart from Turkey, the BRIC countries also have the financial and political clout to deter any such unwarranted move by Israel. In my view Turkey in collaboration with the BRIC countries should convince the United States to dissuade its Israeli allies not to make any hasty move that may directly make the current volatile situations in the West Asian region absolutely out of control.