A changed World-middle east a decade after 9-11-Part-1

Introduction

A decade has passed since the twin towers were brought down by one of the most gruesome and deadliest terrorist attacks in living memory. The World that was in presence on 9/10 is no more and the past decade has seen it change in ways that
could have not been imaginable even a decade prior to it. Let us look at how the
changes affected the region of West Asia which has got most attention than any
other part of the World in the last decade following 9/11.

The shattered status Quo

The World before 9/11

Prior to 9/11, the American policy in the region can be summarized in the following terms:
1. The oil-producing countries in the region should continue to sell fossil fuels to the West at a fairly acceptable market price.
2. They should not do anything that makes Israelis feel endangered.
3. None of them should do anything rash like setting up of a nuclear-industry that may endanger this status quo.

The countries in the region generally adhered to these terms and conditions as dictated by the superpower of the day. Most of the countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain were happy to host American troops on their soil. Countries like Egypt and Jordan had extensive peace treaties with Israel and they in general followed those peace treaties consistently. Even the regime of Saddam Hussain which wanted to create its new rules and regulations in the region , was contained through sanctions and no-fly zones.There were countries like Iran and Syria who opposed these terms and conditions but in the end they did nothing which can be categorized as substantial for changing the status quo in the region. Even these countries such as Iran and Syria restricted their opposition towards these western terms and conditions by employing only small baby steps such as deploying fierce rhetoric at the United Nations or providing support to the groups like Hezbollah and Hamas who have been resisting against Israeli policies in Lebanon or in the occupied Palestinian territories. Even this provision of support towards Hezbollah or Hamas by Iran and Syria can in no way be considered as threatening the very existence of Israel let alone challenging the status quo of American power in the region. The example of Saddam had taught the independent-minded regimes of the region to restrict their opposition towards the American-imposed order only in superficial terms.

The World since 9/11

The changed popular perception about America: Before 9/11, the “American dream” was the most popular imagination in large parts of the West Asian populations including in countries like Iran. How popular America was in Iran can be gauged by the fact that after 9/11, it was the Iranian commoners who performed candle light vigils for the victims of 9/11 and even the Iranian government which has called America “the great Satan” offered a strategic peace deal to the Bush administration which included normalization of all relations and cooperation with the United States in Afghanistan in exchange for acceptance of the Islamic system in Iran. The American concept of Individualism that supports the right of the individual to live his life according to his own wishes and free from the dictates of the powerful state was something that was cherished by a population long suffering from archaic authoritarian rule and looking for opportunities for improving their lives. Although many conservative groups in the region detested the promiscuous lifestyles of some of the American popular cultural icons but the Average man on the street certainly did not consider America as “the great Satan” as some of the regional leaders claimed it to be.

One of the major objectives of the perpetrators of 9/11 was to ensure that America is perceived by the people in the region as the greatest existential enemy fighting against the Muslims since the days of Abu Jehl , the Crusaders and the Mongol hordes of Halagu Khan. They had calculated on a harsh and disproportional response from America in the aftermath of 9/11. President Bush obliged them by first spurring the Iranian offer of strategic détente when he called Iran as part of an “axis of evil” in his state of the Union address in 2002 and then in 2003 when he decided to Invade Iraq on the premise of Weapons of mass destructions. As more and more examples of the harsh and panicked American response (often bordering on brutality) to 9/11 came into the public fore, like the depraved activities in Guantanamo bay and in the Abu Gharib prison as well as the increasingly large number of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan at the hands of the American troops, the genuine public support that America had enjoyed in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 seemed to dissipate fast.

The increasingly hostile attitude that the Muslim communities and individuals faced in many parts of the Western world after the 9/11 events had also made a deep impact in the psyches of the people in the wider Western Asian region. The frequent and humiliating security checks at the airports, the extraordinary renditions of people and the torturous scenes from the prisons like Bagram, Guantanamo bay and Abu Gharib all have made permanent impact upon the psyches of the Muslims living in the West and elsewhere. The vicious propaganda and derogatory commentary coming from some Western intellectuals targeting Muslims also have seriously impacted in the formation of the Muslim mindset towards America and the West in general.

The persistent support that the successive administrations have provided towards Israel over the last decade even towards acts like the economic blockade of the Gazastrip, expansion of unilateral settlements in the West Bank, the operation Cast Lead and the most recent incident of Israeli killing of the Turkish peace activists in the Mavi Marmara vessel, also has created a perception of an America which is blind towards Israeli actions because of its “special relationship” with Israel.

As a result, American model and “American dream” have lost most of its hollowed ground in the minds of the people in West Asian region. A measure of this phenomenon is the surprisingly low support America has among the people of Turkey, one of the strongest pillars of American support in the region. America did not help the matters when it paraded a group of blindfolded Turkish soldiers in front of the Television cameras immediately after the Iraq invasion in 2003. It also did not help when the American leadership sat silent when Israeli soldiers gunned down Hakan Dogan , a 18-year old American citizen of Turkish descent onboard Mavi Marmara.

A new beginning for Turkey:

The decade saw the emergence of a new beginning in Turkish foreign policy. Hitherto Turkey was content to play the role of the contractor
of Western policies in the region. But since the rise of the ruling Justice and Development Party from 2002, the Turkish policies have been set on a new course which wants to see the region from its own viewpoint and not from the eyes of its Western patrons. This apparently independent-looking Turkish policy, pioneered by Ahmet Dovutoglu, the foreign minister of Turkey, has been referred to as “Zero problem with the neighbors”. As a part of its independent foreign policy, Turkey has decided to expand and nurture more extensive political and economic ties to all of its neighbors including Iran and Syria, raising quite a lot of concerned-looking eyebrows in the Western capitals.

The aspect of Turkish foreign policy which has raised most concern in the Western World is the increasingly confrontational attitude Turkey has projected towards Israel, its erstwhile strong alley in the region. The Turkish spat with Israel started when the prime minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan walked out from the Davos forum in 2009 in protest of Israel’s operation cast lead on Gaza which has lead to a lot of civilian deaths in Gaza. The difference of opinion between Israel and Turkey turned to open hostility when an Israeli raid upon the Turkish vessel Mavi Marmara killed a number of Turkish peace activists including an 18-year old American from Turkish origin. Recently after the UN Palmer commission report on the incident, Turkey has decided to suspend all of its defense ties with Israel and has recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv.

The influence of Iran grows:

The US-invasion of Iraq removed the biggest thorn on the side of the Islamic republic, the regime of Saddam Hussain. The US also had removed another regional rival of Iran, Taliban from power in Afghanistan, only a year and half ago. Although there have been lots of speculations among pundits about the exact set of reasons behind President Bush’s decision to invade Iraq but surely allowing the Islamic republic to play a major role in the post-war political efforts in that country was not one of them. But this has been exactly the outcome of the US-led invasion in the country. Following both the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, parties with strong ties to Iran have come to power in Iran.

The rise of Hezbollah in Lebanon following the 2006 Israeli war in Lebanon and the victory of Hamas in Palestinian elections as late as in 2009 also has enabled Iran to influence events very close to the borders of its arch-foe, Israel.

The recent toppling of the secular regimes in Egypt and Libya would also enable Iran to build relations with the nascent popular movements in these countries. The Islamic republic has long sought to portray the secular pro-Western regimes in these countries as obstacles hindering an unified regional effort against Israel , so naturally it is no surprise that Iran is trying to foster stronger links with these post-Arab Spring set ups in the regions. The recent opening of the Suez Canal by the Egyptian authorities to allow two Iranian navy ships to pass through the passage is an indication of this changed approach.

The seculars fall, the religious rise up:

The popular spontaneous movements that swept the Arab world for demanding change have seen secular governments being toppled in Tunisia, Egypt and in Libya. With the fall of these regimes, one can see the rise of religious-leaning groups like Al-Nahda in Tunisia and Muslim brotherhood in Egypt coming into prominence. The fall of the secular regimes have seen widespread chaos and uncertainty in the region; the religious parties can hope for more support from the masses in near future since they are the only ones with a strong organizational base as well as a consistent and coherent message and policy to solve the many problems that the people of the region suffer from. So clearly, the coming decade could see the religious parties rise in influence in most of these post-secular countries in the region.