A changed World-middle east a decade after 9-11-Part-2

Introduction

A decade has passed since the twin towers were brought down by one of the most gruesome and deadliest terrorist attacks in living memory. The World that was in presence on 9/10 is no more and the past decade has seen it change in ways that
could have not been imaginable even a decade prior to it. Let us look at how the
changes affected the region of West Asia which has got most attention than any
other part of the World in the last decade following 9/11. In my previous writing,
I discussed the changes that has taken place in the West Asian region in the decade
gone by. Now in this article I would like to discuss some possible scenarios that could
emerge into the coming decade ahead.

The emergence of a new Order

The Return of the Turks

The most significant event of the decade gone by has probably been the reemergence of Turkey as an independent player in the region. Since the founding of the Turkish republic and throughout the cold war, Turkey has been largely content to follow the roles and responsibilities that it was asked to play by its Western patrons. The ruling elite of Turkey which consisted largely of the Turkish Westernized military hierarchy as well as the Western-educated sections of Turkish intelligentsia , all favored this position whereby Turkey had largely restricted and relegated itself to a small regional player.

With the election of the Justice and Development party in Turkey in 2002, things have changed significantly. This new Turkish government decided to take an independent position vis a vis the West Asian and North African region. By taking this new direction Turkey is expected to play a broader and much prominent role in the region and beyond, something that has not been seen for a long time.

At present Turkey and Israel are logged in a conflagration over the Israeli blockade over Gaza. This also has to be seen in a broader angle whereby Turkey is looking to become an important player in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The Eastern Mediterranean is said to be enriched with natural gas and other vital mineral resources. At present Greek Cypriots and Israel are said to be in collaboration for exploration of these natural gas fields. As the patron of Turkish Cypriots, Turkey is expected to become involved in the matter. If Turkey wants to play its erstwhile historical role of maintaining order and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean region, then surely it has to confront the existing interests in the region. At present, Israel with its naval blockade over Gaza, does not allow any other player to establish itself in the regime. So one can only expect the conflagration between Turkey and Israel to continue in the coming decade over the issue of maintaining stability and order in the Mediterranean region.

The Turkish-Israeli conflagration has another wider angle. Since the Turks are looking to project themselves as a new power in the region, Turks would love to be seen in the region as the strong and just Muslim warrior fighting a just cause against the unjust Israel. So this is a significantly new angle to the equation of the wider region.

The recent “Arab Spring” has given the Turks a great opportunity to strengthen its ties with the people in the region. The Turks, who have got religious and cultural as well as historical ties with the region, would welcome the opportunity to connect with new set-ups in the region whereby popular participation is given more importance. The Justice and development Party considers itself as a movement challenging existing status quo in their own country whereby it took on the power of Turkish military and socialist elite and won. Understandably it wants to see the Arabs also do the same in their own countries. Despite some initial mistakes, Turkey has been steadfastly supporting the popular movements in the Arab countries with the hope that they will overthrow the ailing, archaic regimes in these countries and a new partnership would emerge between Turks and the people of the region, leading them to a new order, much more peaceful and prosperous in nature.

The main players emerge in the new great Game

As of today there are four major players in the region. They are Turkey, Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Out of all the four major powers Israel and Saudi Arabia can be at best described as status-quo powers since the basic intention of these two powers is to preserve the existing order. For Israel , the preservation of the status quo is in terms of maintaining its hold over the territories it has occupied since the six-day war in the occupied West Bank and in the Golan Heights and for Saudi Arabian ruling elite nothing is much important than the continuation of the ruling of the House of Saud in the Hejaj region.

Turkey and Iran are the players who want to change the existing status quo in the region but the two do not have a singular approach in solving the problems due to their different historical experiences. The reactions of both the two countries towards the recent popular movements in the region are also variable. The two countries have differed significantly over the issue of popular uprising in Syria. Elsewhere both countries are more or less on the same wavelength when it comes to establishment of new and more democratic regimes in Egypt, Tunisia or elsewhere in the region.

It is almost a foregone conclusion that following the toppling of autocratic regimes in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, there will be popular movements demanding a greater say in political as well as socio-economic participation in the gulf region. The Bahrain regime recently crushed another popular movement in its territory. The fact that the gulf regimes are mindful of popular discontent in their territories is evident from two examples, the Saudi leadership announcing more grants to its religious allies in the Kingdom and the Emirati and other Gulf establishments investing a lot on “hired guns” i.e. private security companies like Blackwater (now known as Xe) since they are no longer able to trust their own troops.

Both Turkey and Iran are expected to encourage and support popular movements demanding greater political participation in these gulf kingdoms in the coming decade. This is one of their significant ways to change the status quo in the region. However, there may be some competition between the two over influencing these nascent popular movements in the gulf region.

Role of the West

So far the role of the Western states towards the “Arab spring” has been mixed bag to say the least. They were taken aback when their allies in Egypt and Tunisia were toppled but they came back quickly with their support for the Libyan opposition. However I do not expect these Western states to support any popular movement in the Gulf States which may harm the status quo.

The West and the US in particular has a lot to lose in terms of influence in the post Arab Spring-West Asia. Historically, the American support of Israel has been the biggest impediment for improving the American image in the Arab world. If the USA goes on to stop the Palestinians to form their own state then there will be strong opposition from the newly democratic and free Arab countries. There is a strong possibility that if the USA does not encourage its allies in Gulf to significantly help popular participation in their affairs, there is a strong possibility that the popular hostility towards the US will continue to grow in the coming decade.

Turkey is in the best position to reap rewards from the Arab spring. As an emerging Muslim democracy with strong economic credentials as well as closer historical and spiritual ties to the region, Turkey seems to be in the best position to be recognized as a model by the newly emerging set-ups in the region. Iran would also be in a much more strengthened position since the Arab spring would also enable Iran to influence the new set-ups in the Arab world. This is clearly evident with the willingness on the part of the new governing council in Egypt to establish ties with Iran.

For historical and geo-political reasons it is quite likely that the West in general and the Americans in particular would side with the status-quo powers of Israel and Saudi Arabia to preserve their existing interests in the region. That would increasingly ensure a conflict of interest between the West and Turkey as well as the ongoing hostility between Iran and the West.

Conclusion

The end of the decade in the West Asia has seen new possibilities and new changes some of which have been hitherto unthinkable. The constant conflict between the status quo powers and their challengers will probably be the most significant feature of the new West Asia. However no one can deny the possibility of any unthinkable event from an unexpected quarter threatening to unhinge the whole balance of the region.