Elephat vs Dragon

In recent months a very disturbing trend can be observed in Indian foreign policy establishment. The whole Indian foreign policy establishment has been buzzing with news about border violations by Chinese troops into Indian territory, the Indian media outlets have been beaming with breaking news of Chinese troops breaking out in territories like Arunachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Ladakh. Some Indian commentators have been busy predicting that China will be going to a War with India by 2012.There have been comments from official Indian spokespersons calling for China to show restraint. The Indian Air force Chief recently went as far as saying that China has replaced Pakistan as the number one enemy in the eyes of Indian establishment. In the middle of all this there has been some not so fruitful talks between Indian and Chinese officials about the disputed border areas between the two countries. In short there has been a feeling of antipathy towards China in India that only resembles 1962, the last time when these two countries went to war.

Let us analyze the reasons behind this frenzy about China in India. India and China do have existing boundary disputes between themselves. The region of Tawang, which falls under Arunachal Pradesh, is claimed by China as a part of it’s Tibetan region while India always considers Tawang it’s own territory. In recent months China has upped the ante on Tawang, it very recently pushed the World Bank in canceling a multi-million dollar loan to India as that loan was to be spent on Arunachal Pradesh by India. China and India are actually holding dialogue with each other without any results on the future of Tawang.

In recent years a section of Indian establishment and elite has certainly become very confident and Zealous about themselves and the future of India. This group believes that India is destined to become a great power in very near future. Recent Indian economic growth and successful nuclear bomb related experiments might have spurred them into this view. This group considers China as a natural competitor to India’s coming greatness hence there is a reason that this group will try to influence the Indian public opinion against China so that it can mobilize Indian popular opinion against what this group believes an ensuing Chinese attack on India.

Some of the leading lights in this group come from both the ruling Indian national congress as well as the leading opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party(also known as BJP). The Rastriya Swayamsevak Sangha which is the parent body of the BJP (also known as the RSS) came up with a list of 10 possible reasons that was preventing India becoming a great nation. Unsurprisingly, China was listed as the number one reason in that list. Indian defense minister at that time, George Fernandez went on to say on the same year that China and not Pakistan was the number one enemy at that time. Immediately after Pokhran nuclear explosions by India then Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee wrought a letter to then US president Bill Clinton identifying China as the main concern behind the nuclear explosions.
Current Indian Prime Minister Dr. Monmohan Sing has been really aggressive in pushing the nuclear deal between India and the US despite strong parliamentary opposition by the Indian leftist parties against the same nuclear deal. There has been very frequent talk in recent times in both the congress as well as the BJP circles of creating a military alliance involving India, USA and Israel. Undoubtedly any alliance of this sort will see China as the main threat. There has also been talk in certain Indian quarters of encircling China by creating an alliance of pro-US countries like India, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. All these examples prove that a certain section in Indian politics has been instrumental in ratcheting up the tension in Indo-China relations.

This above-mentioned section of Indian population considers the United States of America as a natural ally of India and henceforth a partner against China in the Asian geo-politics. This is the same group, which lobbied hard for the recently concluded Indo-US nuclear deal both in India as well as in USA.After the recent election of Barrack Hussain Obama as US president, the current US administration unlike the previous one under George W Bush, has not given India the same attention as it has done to China. This could be one of the ways by the above-mentioned group to bring back US attention towards India This could be another ploy to appeal towards US arms industry for more future Indian purchases of US weapon systems.

Another couple of possible scenarios could be analyzed behind the recent events. US under Obama administration has given more importance in fighting Talliban militants in Afghanistan. To succeed in Afghanistan the US needs the help of Pakistani military and intelligence establishment. That is why it wants the Pakistani military to start fighting more forcefully in the tribal regions bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pakistanis whom consider India as the most serious threat to it’s existence told the Americans that they can not fight with full force against Afghanistan as long as the threat from India remains on it’s eastern border. The US certainly seem to have pushed the Indians towards a diplomatic détente towards Pakistan since it does not want an escalation of tension in the broader south Asian region when it is busy in Afghanistan. Now the modern Indian mindset is based upon two facts one is a sense of superiority over Pakistan and another is a sense of inferiority over China. Our readers will do well to remember that there was a terrible terrorist attack by Pakistani terrorists in the Indian business capital of Mumbai in November 2008 and the entire Indian nation was baying for Pakistani blood.

Now this whole incident took place at the same time around the election of Barrack Obama as US president. So when the Obama administration had pressed on India to maintain peace with Pakistan the Indian government had to divert the attention of it’s citizens who were angry over the inaction of their government regarding Pakistan. Playing the China card is certainly a very good option by the Indian leaders to divert the attention of their public from Pakistan to China.

Whatever reason could be behind this recent anti-China frenzy in India the Indian government must tread carefully when it comes to China. A look at the map of region will ensure that to the readers. India is surrounded by neighbors whom the Chinese can use with effectiveness in case of an all out war. In the western border of India, there is Pakistan which is an all-weather friend of China, on the northern border lies Nepal where in recent times China has gained a lot of influence with it’s alliance with the local Nepali Maoists. On the eastern front China has gained influence in Bangladesh and Myanmar China has been able to gain a foothold even in Sri Lanka. Overall assessment ensures that in the case of warfare Chinese allies may well surround India, which is nothing short of a strategic nightmare for India.
A further look at the international scenario will present bleaker picture for India. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russians has been cozying up to China as a bulwark against what it considers US interference in areas of Russian influence. In case of a large-scale War between India and China, Russian support will probably be with China than with it’s cold war ally, India. Support from the United States on which Indian establishment is relying upon, might be not that forthcoming. China owes US billions of dollars in debt and as the biggest lender to the USA, the Chinese has got the leverages over US to ensure it’s complete neutrality in case of an all out War against India.
Another important matter is that in terms of both conventional as well as non- conventional military aspects Chinese Military is far superior to Indian military. In a large-scale war it will be impossible for the Indian military to prevail over the Chinese.
To substantiate this point I am giving the below links:
1. http://www.abytheliberal.com/internationalism/india-vs-china-military-conventional-nuclear
2. http://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/30-65175.aspx
3. http://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/30-65122.aspx
Apart from conventional and nuclear forces China has got substantial leverage over India in terms of areas like cyber warfare and space warfare. Chinese hackers have worldwide notoriety in breaking the defense related websites of it’s neighbors. China is also the first nation in Asia to shot down one of it’s own satellites only couple of years ago. In a wide war China could easily exploit these capabilities to neutralize our computer and satellite driven weapons and other systems of mass-communication.

After an overall look at the situation between the two countries, Indian establishment will be well advised to take a very careful approach in it’s border disputes vis-à-vis China. Recent Indian government moves do not aspire much confidence in it’s decision making. Some Indian media sources have been reporting that India has been thinking of parading the Dalai Lama in the Tawang area to give legitimacy to Indian claims on this region. If this news is true then one has to say that this decision is both unwarranted and incorrect.
China has been calling Dalai Lama a secessionist for a long time. Now not only this move will substantiate those claims but the Tibetan people could also consider Dalai as an Indian puppet.
In the conclusion one has to argue that the Indian government will do well to take a balanced and well-thought out approach regarding China. Any mistake on this regard might result in a greater tragedy than 1962.