Looming crisis - Russia-Georgian tentions and it's implications

Historical Background

It has been a year since the war between Georgia and Russia ended with Russian victory and de – facto Russian annexation of Georgian territories South Ossetia and Abkhazia. There has been an uneasy peace between the two countries with some border skirmishes and periodical hot rhetoric from both sides.

To understand more of the situation we need to get into a little background of the events. Historically Georgia has been subjugated under subsequent foreign empires for a long part of it’s history. Russia was the last of the foreign powers, which conquered Georgia. Paul I, then Czar of Russia, annexed Georgia into Russian empire in 1801.Georgia was a part of the Russian empire until the Russian revolution in 1917.Georgia declared it’s independence following the revolution and civil war in Russia. It maintained it’s independence till 1921 when it came under Soviet Union’s rule. During this time, two sons of Georgia, Josef Vissarionovich Djugashvili and Lavrenty Beria went onto rule the newly created state Soviet Union. Josef Vissarionovich Djugashvili is known to posterity as Stalin. Beria headed the soviet spy agency KGB. Soviet rule continued till 1991 when Georgia declared independence with the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union.
Eduard Shevardnadze, the former foreign minister of the Soviet Union became the President of Georgia in 1992. Meanwhile ethnic tensions between Georgia and two of it’s regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia flared up which resulted in the positioning of Russian troops as peacekeepers inside these territories. The Georgians elected a new president, Mikhail Saakashvili in 2004 , following a popular revolution known as the “Rose revolution”. The rift between Georgia and the separatist territories continued to widen with time eventually resulting in an attack by the Georgians against the South Ossetians in July 2008. This resulted in the Russian military involvement in the area.
Russian forces quickly moved in and the Georgians had to retreat form the territories. A ceasefire was eventually declared with the mediation of the European Union and the personal intervention of the French President Nicholas Sarkozy, in particular. The terms of truce allowed Russians to maintain their military presence in the Abkhazian and South Ossetian territories. Eventually later in the year 2008 the two breakaway regions, supported by the Kremlin, declared independence from Georgia. As of now an uneasy truce lies between Georgia and Russia, which can anytime burst into another violent conflict.

Underlying Issues

There is a list of underlying issues behind this conflict. First of all we have to acknowledge the historical issue. As we know for much of it’s recent history, Georgia was ruled from Moscow. This came to an end in the early 1990-s following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Ever since then Georgia, to maintain and strengthen it’s independence, has tried to move into the Western sphere of influence. It has repeatedly tried to court the west particularly the US. Since becoming the president of Georgia in 2004, Mikhail Saakashvili has tried to court the US and tried to move his country into the western alliance, NATO. Now Russia which has considered Georgia as part of territory under it’s influence, was angered by this. It always wanted to bring back Georgia under it’s influence. Hence the Russian military has maintained it’s presence in the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia ever since it forced the Georgians out of these areas in 2008.

Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union was weak and dependent upon the western world for it’s survival. Henceforth it could not defend what it has always considered it rightful interests in the former Soviet ruled areas like Georgia. But ever since Vladimir Putin came to power in Moscow, he has tried to strengthen Russia, both financially as well as militarily. The oil boom helped Russia in this direction. So now Russia is showing a lot of assertiveness in pushing it’s point to the world.

The post-soviet Russia not only wants to be recognized as a great power once again but it also is deeply suspicious and hostile to what it considers Western encroachments in once Russian ruled territories like Georgia. Although Vladimir Putin is no longer the president of Russia, but his policies are continuously being pursued by the new president Dmitri Medvedev without any great change. So we can expect a lot of assertiveness from Russia in defending it’s positions in the once Soviet-ruled territories.

The Western world after the demise of it’s cold war rival, the Soviet Union , considered the threat from the Russians , was over . But only after two decades of the end of cold war it has seen the situation changing completely. Until now the west has increased it’s influences in ex-Soviet republics with impunity. The west particularly the US thought that it’s power, ideas and influence were invincible in this region but ever since the Iraq war it has been facing a new reality.

After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Russia was the first country in the world to offer it’s support to the US in the “War on Terror”. At that time both countries were enjoying great warmth in their relationship. But everything was changed by the US-led war in Iraq on 2003. With that war the world saw the US as a global bully that was ready to impose it’s worldview upon the rest. Not only the US unilaterally withdrew from bilateral nuclear weapons reduction treaties signed between the US and the Soviet Union but the US also expanded it’s political role in the countries like Georgia. This probably have convinced the Russians that the Americans want to play a hegemonic role in Moscow’s own territory at Moscow’s expanse. From this point onwards we can see the Russians vehemently opposing any policy by the US or the NATO alliance to expand it’s role in countries like Georgia.

Another important issue in the Russia-West equations in the 21-st century is energy. Russia boasts one of the world’s biggest reserves of oil and gas. The west needs these oil and gas from Russia at a cheap price to continue it’s economic well being. Now Georgia is in a very strategic position in this regard. Georgia is situated right in the middle of Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil and gas pipeline. This pipeline was intended to bring oil and gas from the energy reach central Asian states to Europe, bypassing Russia. This pipeline is said to have a great significance upon future energy situation in the European Union. So for Moscow to take control of this pipeline means it will control the economic heart of Europe.

Another interesting cause could be the role of the current Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili in flaming tensions with Russia. Ever Since he came into power, the Georgian president has tried to move his country as close as possible towards US. Georgia supported the US in Iraq war with it’s troops and has wholeheartedly supported every US move to increase western role in the eastern Europe. This has created a lot of bad blood between the Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili and some top Russian officials. The government controlled Russian media accused Georgia of committing genocide in South Ossetia during last year’s conflict. Vladimir Putin, current prime minister of Russia, in one of his meetings with French president Nicholas Sarkozy, called for Mikhail Saakashvili to be hanged. The relationship between Georgia and Russia will continue to be tense probably as long as Mikhail Saakashvili is in power in Georgia.

What lies in future?



It is a very difficult and dangerous job to successfully predict the future particularly in a volatile region like the Caucasus. Having said that after analysing all the causes of current tension and conflict in the region we can assume the following points

1. Russia will try to assert it’s role much more assertively in the region in near future. Russia is much more confident after gaining a swift victory in last summer’s war and might try to repeat the result. Though one feels Russians will not try to out rightly occupy and control the whole of Georgia since it will receive widespread condemnation from around the world but it may want to fight a small and limited war to topple the government of Mikhail Saakashvili and replace it with a more pliant regime.
2. The West and the European nations in particular will not militarily intervene in this action. The European nations of the NATO alliance do not have enough military resources to defeat a nuclear-armed Russia in a conventional war. Moreover as we have observed previously the energy interests of the European nations will restrict them to take any direct actions against the Russians. The Europeans will probably limit it’s displeasure to verbal condemnations of the Russian actions.
3. The United States of America, particularly the Bush administration, was an avid supporter of the Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili. Even then when it came to the last summer’s war the Bush administration did not help Georgia militarily.
The current Obama administration is also unlikely to help Georgia in terms of any further military conflict with Russia. The Obama administration is very heavily involved in military operations in Afghanistan and it needs the help of the Russians to win that war. Very recently the Americans made an agreement with the Russians to allow Americans air passage and refuelling facilities in Russian air space for American military operations in Afghanistan. So it is unlikely that the US will come to any aid of it’s Georgian ally in case of a future conflict between Russia and Georgia.

4. Although one cannot predict that when and how a future military conflict will take place between Russia and Georgia but one should not be surprised if such a conflict takes place in very near future. The Russians at the moment seems to be holding all the crucial cards and they are giving the appearance that want to force the issue on Georgia. But if the Russians want to go into the conflict they will choose the timing of that conflict to their advantage. So one has to conclude that for any future conflict to happen between Russia and Georgia, Russia will probably start the conflict at it’s own interest and according to it’s own time and reason.